Corona Virus Updates

originally posted by: Agit8dChop
the 'chart' says we should be up at 50,000 today around 70,000 infected by tomorrow night. with a 1000 or so deaths.

The numbers don't really mean anything anymore because its beyond any doubt the numbers are completely disconnected from the reality on the ground. There's so many people quarantined in Wuhan, that are infected and are/were showing symptoms 10 days ago. They were sick, they were turned away and not tested, they went home and they died or survived... and infected others!

1000's of them...

The only thing that matters any more is the date. Every day that passes and there isn't a sudden half dozen random cases detected in our countries.. is a good thing. If random suburban types start rocking up with the virus, who have never been to China, then we've got a very big problem. That's the dooms day scenario!

Here's a 14 day chart from the 1st day of infection for the international arrivals.. if you clear the date and another week after that, id say we dodged a bullet.. somehow!

Nearly all of these, with the exception of Germany.. are Wuhan related. Nearly everyone of them flew on a plane too..

Thank you, and to the others who replied regarding the chart. 👍🏻

John Hopkins page is functional again.

Cheers

a reply to: Rich Z

I know a lot of people online who ate worried about the flu this year and have been battling nasty colds and the flu itself all this time. Some people keep getting sick and whatever they have is lingering. I, myself, and my family have not gotten sick this year. Of course we don't get the flu shot, I don't trust it.

All of the people who have gotten sick, all had the flu shot. Something to think about. My daughters school had the stomach flu virus going around, my daughter did not get that. My son at Christmas time cane home with some sort of cold. My son did get the flu shot last year due to the Air Force giving it to him. Since then he is has gotten sick with anything going around.

So, yeah the flu is on a lot of people's minds.

a reply to: tarifa37

That would be bad, but that's not how it will work. It's like if you fold a piece of paper 42 times it will reach the moon. While that's true, it's not ever going to happen. As long as the infection rate outside of china doesn't take off like it did in china (and it hasn't so far) then it will reach a terminal velocity soonish (in the next couple of weeks). That's what the quarantine does.

originally posted by: Dfairlite
a reply to: tarifa37

That would be bad, but that's not how it will work. It's like if you fold a piece of paper 42 times it will reach the moon. While that's true, it's not ever going to happen. As long as the infection rate outside of china doesn't take off like it did in china (and it hasn't so far) then it will reach a terminal velocity soonish (in the next couple of weeks). That's what the quarantine does.

People have got very short memories.

Just a week ago the total number of confirmed cases was only 2800 in China - 7 days later (and the official numbers are clearly not even showing the tip of the iceberg) it's over 17,000.

A week ago those regions in China with hundreds of cases now only had cases in the low 10's of.

Germany had 4 a few days ago, it's up to 10.

The US had 3 or 4 it's up to 12.

What will the numbers be 7 days from now?

They will be higher than they are now, that's for certain.

originally posted by: Jay-morris
The gear mongering

Get ya gears, 10 gears for a paaaand.

a reply to: Power_Semi

A short memory has nothing to do with it.

A week ago the US had 6 cases. Now it's up to 10. The purpose of my post, you missed. The growth is always rapid in the beginning phase and it continues until terminal velocity. The purpose of the quarantine is not to stop growth within the quarantined population but to those outside of that. Realize that china has put tens of millions of people in quarantine. That means the number can grow from 17,000 to tens of millions all without actually spreading anywhere outside of the quarantine zones.

I expect the numbers to keep growing rapidly because china has put so many people in the quarantine zone. Outside of china and specifically in the US, the numbers will not grow to anything of significance because we are quarantining a much smaller population.

If 10,000,000 people in china become infected, that is only 1% of the population of china.

originally posted by: Dfairlite
a reply to: Power_Semi

A short memory has nothing to do with it.

A week ago the US had 6 cases. Now it's up to 10. The purpose of my post, you missed. The growth is always rapid in the beginning phase and it continues until terminal velocity. The purpose of the quarantine is not to stop growth within the quarantined population but to those outside of that. Realize that china has put tens of millions of people in quarantine. That means the number can grow from 17,000 to tens of millions all without actually spreading anywhere outside of the quarantine zones.

I expect the numbers to keep growing rapidly because china has put so many people in the quarantine zone. Outside of china and specifically in the US, the numbers will not grow to anything of significance because we are quarantining a much smaller population.

If 10,000,000 people in china become infected, that is only 1% of the population of china.

You're assuming that because it's only gone from 6 to 11 it isn't going to be a problem in the US - that's faulty thinking - that's my point.

It's no good looking at it and saying it's only another 5 or 6 in a week, it's doubled.

You're not going to go from 6 to 10,000 in a week, as I indicated - on 26th Jan Yunnan had 16 cases now it's 114, Zhejiang had 104, now it's 724.

You're making a lot of assumptions of what's happening on the ground in China, then extrapolating those as facts about what will happen in the future in the West.

I hope you're right but I am pretty certain that you're being a tad over optimistic.

You aren't quarantining anyone - there could already be hundreds of infected people and they're wandering the streets and travelling where they like at will.

Shutting down cities and stopping travel is quarantine - putting a handful of already symptomatic people into isolation is shutting the door after the horse has bolted.

If that were working you shouldn't have had any more cases.

originally posted by: Dfairlite
a reply to: Power_Semi

A short memory has nothing to do with it.

A week ago the US had 6 cases. Now it's up to 10. The purpose of my post, you missed. The growth is always rapid in the beginning phase and it continues until terminal velocity. The purpose of the quarantine is not to stop growth within the quarantined population but to those outside of that. Realize that china has put tens of millions of people in quarantine. That means the number can grow from 17,000 to tens of millions all without actually spreading anywhere outside of the quarantine zones.

I expect the numbers to keep growing rapidly because china has put so many people in the quarantine zone. Outside of china and specifically in the US, the numbers will not grow to anything of significance because we are quarantining a much smaller population.

If 10,000,000 people in china become infected, that is only 1% of the population of china.

I admire your confidence. Would be wonderful if you are right. I think we should all hope fervently that you are.

a reply to: Dfairlite

I can't tell if you're trolling or stupid... But if 10 mil in China get infected, multiply that by how many already are and how its spread to other countries

You not so good at math is ya

PS - if anyone wants to go back in time and look at the changing numbers on a day by day basis it's in the waybackmachine here: web.archive.org...*/bnonews.com...

Just select a date and time for the numbers at that point.

The US on the 26th had 5 cases, the coronavirus was in 10 countries outside China with a total of 38 cases.

Today the US has 11, it's in 23 countries and 153 cases.

In 1 week.

a reply to: Power_Semi

You're looking at past performance as an indicator of future results and that simply isn't how it works. I'm not looking at anything in china other than how they botched this and how other countries are not. I don't think china botched it on purpose but the rest of us have seen what happened in china and are taking steps to avoid that happening here. That's the whole point. We know more of what we're dealing with than what china did, that's not an assumption, it's a fact.

China was unlucky enough to be the guinea pig while we all watched. For sure there will be more cases, but the measures taken to keep it from spreading outside of china will be more drastic because of what we've seen in china. This isn't a prediction, it's a fact. We have already taken more drastic steps to contain it at lower levels of infected cases than china did.

We've cut off all flights from the affected area. We are quarantining anyone who flies in and shows flu symptoms. We have 11 confirmed cases, all in quarantine. It's not a numbers game, one doesn't beget two, two doesn't beget four, at least not if we take steps to ensure it does not. Which is what we are doing.

Then there are the treatment methods. Seems a couple of places have had success with anti-virals and HIV med cocktails. Better treatment means less time ill and less time contagious which results in less spreading.

I'm not sure why you think I'm being overoptimistic. I'm just surveying the field. It's going to spread to more people. But we are better equipped to deal with it and have a better understanding of what measures need to be taken when it does.

On Jan 19, china had 280 cases. Two days later they were over 500. Two days ago there were 157 cases outside china, today there are 183. We are doing a much better job because of the knowledge gained from china.

a reply to: Power_Semi

So outside of china we had 64 cases on the 26th. As of yesterday we have 183 cases, an increase of 286%.
In china they had 4.4k cases on the 26th. As of yesterday they had 17.2k cases, an increase of 391%.

It's obvious we are already doing better than they are. I expect that gap to widen considerably.

a reply to: SailorJerry

This isn't math. This is biology. 10M quarantined people cannot infect people outside the quarantine. You're not so good at biology, is ya?

Ningbo in East China’s Zhejiang reported three cluster infection cases on Monday, in which a woman was first infected with the #coronavirus after having a meal with people from #Wuhan. The infection then spread to 25 other people.

twitter.com...

thats a hot spot... 25 other people in small clusters

one comment there ''did they eat a restaurant'' raises lots of possibilties

well done China. Its remarkable what they managed to build so quickly

twitter.com...

Any chance we can stop talking about stock markets in this thread? It would mean we only read about the virus updates and we don't waste time on posts irrelevant to the cause.

you could start your own threads on the stock markets!

cheers!

a reply to: Dfairlite
People in the quarentine zone arent the issue for us outside it, it's the ones that left before and during and are still leaving other areas in china which arent under quarantine. 2 week incubation plus having virus not showing symptoms and being able to infect others. That's the worrying factors in my eyes.
I hope you are right and this is all going to slow down, I'm sure that's what we all want, untill another week has passed none of us can be sure about anything.

I really wish this media blackout would come to an end.

originally posted by: Pommer89
a reply to: Dfairlite
People in the quarentine zone arent the issue for us outside it, it's the ones that left before and during and are still leaving other areas in china which arent under quarantine. 2 week incubation plus having virus not showing symptoms and being able to infect others. That's the worrying factors in my eyes.
I hope you are right and this is all going to slow down, I'm sure that's what we all want, untill another week has passed none of us can be sure about anything.

I really wish this media blackout would come to an end.

Reminds me a bit of King Canute - but let’s wait and see.