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The first super-spreader, Zhou Zuofen would bring the disease to the international stage. He checked in to the Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital in Guangzhou on January 31, 2003. This was the same hospital where Liu Jianlun was treating the disease. The virus was soon spread to nearby hospitals while Liu would later spread the disease to Hong Kong.
We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing.
We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease.
If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 190 thousand (prediction interval, 132,751 to 273,649). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.
Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February.
BEIJING (Reuters) - China has confirmed 1,287 cases of patients infected with the new coronavirus as of Jan. 24, while the death toll from the virus has risen to 41, the National Health Commission said on Saturday.
There are two probable cases of coronavirus in NSW and four other people possibly have the disease, health officials have announced. All six patients are undergoing hospital testing and the two probable cases have been fully isolated.
NSW Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant said she expected test results for one of the two probable cases later this afternoon. Results for the other case would be available on Sunday morning (local time) at the earliest.