SCI/TECH: Super Volcano Will Threaten Civilization

Yeah I've noticed that there has been a lot of geological activity going on. I'm no geologist but these recent articles are giving me a bad vibe.

I wonder if it would be possible to simply induce minor eruptions in order to prevent a dangerous buildup. Anybody think this is workable?

Anyhow the idea of North America being devestated isn't the most pleasant thought. However I'm thinking instead of North America, what about somewhere in the Pacific. Say some area around Hawaii explodes, that would be even worse than the December tsunami.

Originally posted by soficrow
Do you think that there will be an adequate warning before something happens? Like, enough time to evacuate people? ...Is there any point? Would we be looking at a kind of population triage?

Well, there was actually a special on Yosemite National park and volcanoes on Discovery or some such channel. They asked "So, would we get any early warning signs from the caldera before it blows?" The good news is that, yes, they would certainly see the early warning signs. The bad news is that the early warning signs started about 3 years ago.

The early warning signs are the part where you can predict that, yes, it's most likely going to blow sometime in the foreseeable future, but at that point everything is a guessing game. I believe that the average time from the "It's definitely happening very soon" and actual eruption is about 30-45 minutes. At best case scenario, maybe an hour or two.

The early warning signs (minor quakes, steam from vents, mudslides, etc) are usually when people keep a watch on the area, people living close to the volcano usually go on holiday, and those living in the vicinity keep watch on the area for the scientists to say "Okay, it's happening in about half an hour!"

The thing is, those early warning signs can last anywhere from days to years. And the late warning signs are sometimes skipped altogether, especially if the cone is going to explode.

So, technically, it could be tomorrow, or it could be 1000+ years from now. The only real "we should probably get out of the area" warnings are already happening, but the "Oh, crap, run!!!" warning will give everyone about 30mins to 2 hours warning...maybe... But considering that it takes time to go through channels, get the word out, the damage that will be done to infrastructure like roads, and the panic of the people, I'd say pretty much anyone living within 300 miles of Yosemite will not get out in time. They may die of old age before it happens, but when it happens, you can pretty much count on them being among the casualties that will never be found (gasses that can melt iron will pretty much disintegrate a human body no problem).

Those living 300+ miles away from the caldera I would give a 50/50 chance, but my money would still be on the volcano.

I just did some checking on the Yellowstone area, and it has either calmed down significantly in the last years, or someone is changing the data to prevent panic...
when ATS did the caldera project a year or so ago, it seemed like it was going to blow at any minute...

now, all the data shows, is a trend in stabilization... and cooling...
less earthquakes, lower temps, and so forth...

it could very well be, that the porous substrata allows for pressure release across the whole section of the country... coincindentally timed within the same year as the recent first MSH eruption...

I think geologists are not seeing the entire picture either...

I can't remember the place, but somewhere outside yellowstone, a geyser will go off randomly, and at an exact time some months later (i think it was 6), an earthqauke will hit california...

nature has its own warning system... how unique...

for more real time data from yellowstone:

is it gonna blow?

Originally posted by thelibra

So, technically, it could be tomorrow, or it could be 1000+ years from now. The only real "we should probably get out of the area" warnings are already happening, but the "Oh, crap, run!!!"

Thanks. Kinda like life, death and everything else, huh? We know it's goona happen, just not whe, exactly.

...This "life is change" thing is partly why I lean to Buddhism.


Thanks for that link, Laz.


.

Originally posted by soficrow

Originally posted by thelibra

So, technically, it could be tomorrow, or it could be 1000+ years from now. The only real "we should probably get out of the area" warnings are already happening, but the "Oh, crap, run!!!"

Thanks. Kinda like life, death and everything else, huh? We know it's goona happen, just not whe, exactly.

...This "life is change" thing is partly why I lean to Buddhism.


Thanks for that link, Laz.

.

Actually it will happen between today and Dec 21 2012.

[smoochie]

Originally posted by DrHoracid

Actually it will happen between today and Dec 21 2012.

[smoochie]

[kiss back]

.

So I'm wondering, how on earth could yellowstone destroy 300 hundred miles? What kind of condition should we expect within that 300 mile area?

Anyhow I'm not really a believer in that 2012 stuff but yeah, if yellowstone does blow around then I won't be incredibly suprised. Let's all just hope that the 2012 stuff is just a bunch of BS and that Yellowstone is just a case of paranioa.

Originally posted by cyberdude78
So I'm wondering, how on earth could yellowstone destroy 300 hundred miles? What kind of condition should we expect within that 300 mile area?

Anyhow I'm not really a believer in that 2012 stuff but yeah, if yellowstone does blow around then I won't be incredibly suprised. Let's all just hope that the 2012 stuff is just a bunch of BS and that Yellowstone is just a case of paranioa.

the libra explained how things work on the first page. She did a good job.

.....I was raised on the kind of Christianity that said God made the earth the way it is, and it won't change unless he gets mad and enforces some kind of punishment.

Then I learned a bit of science, and a bit of history, and then a bit more and realized that things change constantly. And sometimes those changes are huge.

It took me a while to adjust to the idea that reality is not a stable static state. But now, I don't expect it to be. ...So while that 2012 stuff may be bs, the truth is that this planet we live on is subject to upheaval.

Western religions and psychology tend not to prepare people for such realities - we are somehow convinced that the ground beneath out feet won't shift, that we'll never get so sick we'll lose our jobs and our homes and our families, that bankruptcy and welfare are not in our cards. But the ground does shift and things do change. Shtuff happens.

"But it only hurts if you resist." Meaning that once we stop expending all our energy trying to deny reality, living in truth becomes fairly painless.


.

From what I have read on this, if Yellowstone goes, this world as we know it will end. Even though at first it may not seem that way. Not only will literally millions of people die from the shockwave of the explosion and poisoned atmosphere, but the resulting nuclear winter that will happen will cause massive starvation like the world has never seen over the course of the weeks and months following the explosion.

If it were to happen, I would think that man would have to invent new ways to feed the populations left, such as cultivating food in underground chambers, or maybe relying much more on seafood. Seafood may be one of the only food sources left after several months of the regular food sources depletion. And you could imagine the wars that will be fought and the people that will be killed fighting for the last tidbits of food available.

I think a catastrophe such as Yellowstone erupting or getting hit by an asteroid may be included in the list of reasons for the government having all the underground, filtered air bunkers that they do. They are well stocked with food for several years, and coincidentially, this is at least how long it would take for the environment to somewhat rectify itself after such a massive upheaval. Nuclear war fears IMO are only part of the reasons for such bunkers.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican

If it were to happen, I would think that man would have to invent new ways to feed the populations left, such as cultivating food in underground chambers,

This jumped out at me. Happens I was discussing the future of agriculture with a farmer last month. I mentioned that I'd just tripped over a few reports that said the future of agriculture was in greenhouses. ...The farmer scoffed, and said it wouldn't work for grain. End of story.

...Now I can't find my sources. ...Anybody else aware of these greenhouse studies? [The lights are flashing]


.

hmm, interesting sofi. So how do you propose that the remaining population feed itself after such a massive catastrophe?

I think we'd just have to get used to seaweed. (Yuk)

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
hmm, interesting sofi. So how do you propose that the remaining population feed itself after such a massive catastrophe?

I think we'd just have to get used to seaweed. (Yuk)

Am po'd at myself - just scanned and don't remember much, except that the 'greenhouse papers' were definitely about commercial production. Thought I'd get back to it later. Didn't.

....FYI - many cultures grow food indoors - sprouts (good stuff), herbs (vitamins, minerals, other benefits) - maybe fish - might be time for a bit of research on this one. But likely the real issue is power and heat - and lack of infrastructure.

IMO - there are no problems, only solutions. Might be a fine opportunity to get back to small business and lose the big corporations.


.

yessir, the Universe & our planet will continue to do as it will-
any surviving humanity will 'give thanks' and pass down stories,
legends, tales, myths.

nice article
~~~~~~~~~

(gleaned from: www.peakbagger.com/pbgeog.worldrev.aspx)

www.peakbagger.com/pbgeog.worldrev.gif
...this image is not linking to this post...sorry

There are probably better maps or graphics whic show you-
what's on the exact-opposite side of the earth from you.

At my 1st glance of the map, it clicked in my mind that the
'Yellowstone Calandra' is opposite of 'Indian Ocean' tsunami source.
-> maybe not an exact Bullseye but Definitely in the
Target Zone surrounding a 'Bullseye'



for what i think suppliments your article, you might read this
title: 'Entire Earth Shaken as Massive Internal Instability and World Weather Chaos Continues' dtd March 9, 2005
(found at: www.whatdoesitmean.com/index694.htm)

My instinct is that even if Yosemite blew in the worst way possible, the world would not end. Life wouldn't end (well, actually, a lot of lives would end, but not life as we know it).

For one thing, as a genus, we've been through this a lot. Depending on your scientific viewpoint of which genus constitutes humanity (Ardipithecenes
, Australopithecus or Homo), humans have been around for 2.5 to 5+ million years. At an average rate of one supervolcanic eruption every 200,000 years, we've been through it anywhere from 12-25 times. It's practically old hat!

So, as a genus, we'll probably survive. I think it's an interesting coincidence, though, that our hominid ancestors appear to have gone through a change roughly every 200,000 years once you get to the last 2 million years. Perhaps, as a species forced to adapt to new conditions after the supervolcano, a new species will develop, and Homo Sapiens will become another museum piece. Or maybe it's just coincidence.

Anyway, here's what little reputable material is found in regards to what we can expect from a Yellowstone blast:

• First, the pyroclastic flow (superheated gas and ash) would play havoc with the western half of the U.S.:
  
  
  
  1. It would kill all life within roughly a 300 mile radius, in a matter of minutes.
     
     
  2. It would most likely melt or incinerate anything with a boiling point equal to or less than that of iron.
     
     
  3. After about 300 miles the heat would gradually start dying out, leaving people alive, but suffering first, second, and third degree burns.
     
     
  4. About that time, the shockwave should hit. There's really no way to predict what kind of damage will happen, but it will likely leave almost anyone in the western half of the U.S. deafened, or with severely damaged hearing. Ironically, this will be the least of the troubles, because...
     
     
  5. Though the gas has cooled enough to only scald people, for the remainder of the roughly 600 mile radius, people will have to also deal with their air being poisoned and acidic. Those not killed outright will soon have a very bad day, however, because...
     
     
  6. The next effect will primarily cover twice the radius in ash, most likely in an eliptical pattern to follow windflows, up to about 4 meters. A good portion of this ash will also come from the previously incinerated landscape. Those not killed by heat, poison, and acid, will now find breathing and moving extremely difficult as they wade through a 12-foot sea of fine powder.
     
  
  
• Global Effects would be felt the same day and continue to worsen for the next 3-14 days, depending on the weather patterns. The would include things like.
  
  
  
  1. Little, if any, government assistance. The largest disaster FEMA has ever had to face is 9/11, which stretched their resources to the limit. The affected area of the supervolcano is an estimated 10 million times greater than that of 9/11. To date, FEMA does not have a contingency plan for a disaster on the scale of a supervolcano. Though they have shown an interest in developing one, it is doubtful they will ever have the resources capable of dealing with such an event. So you might want to be prepared, either with supplies, with guns, and/or with your god.
     
     
  2. Another problem that will have to be dealt with is the gas sulphur dioxide which forms sulphuric acid when it gets into the stratosphere. This has two main effects, one is blotting out the sun, the other is, of course, sulfuric acid rain.
     
     
  3. Within a day or so, temperatures would plummet 15-20 degrees, on average, across the globe. While this wouldn't exactly cause the end of the world, it is likely to turn many temperate climates into arctic ones. Strangely, the greatest differences would be in the southern hemisphere, though thanks to the normally high temperature, it would probably make them a cool average of 72-degrees year-round, thus remove San Diego's monopoly on such temperatures.
     
     
  4. Since most foodcrops depend upon a particular temperature and sunlight range, and most foodcrops are grown in temperate climates, and the breadbasket of the U.S. will be under a 12-foot layer of ash, and the damage to global infrastructure, one can expect that a lot of people will starve--roughly 1 billion, at best estimates.
     
     
  5. Travel using engines would be severely limited for a while, though the time and location would depend largely on the ashfall. The enormous amount of particulates in the air would not only impair visibility on an unprecedented scale, but also clog air filters within a very short amount of time.
     
     
  6. Anyone with breathing problems or allergies can count on a miserable life. Those with perfectly healthy lungs can count on developing breathing problems and allergies.
     
     
  7. Most of North America would become uninhabitable until the ash had been beaten down by the acid rain, and hardened enough to walk on. Even then, the poisons within the ash, the topsoil covered with volcanic rock, combined with the blotted out sunlight and lower temperatures, would prevent any sort of serious agriculture and turn most of America and Canada into 3rd world countries.
     
     
  8. Global weather patterns would undoubtably change dramatically, though the full extent can only be guessed at. Between the temperature drops, the addition of acid and particulates to the atmosphere, the sheer loss of plant life, animal life, refreezing of polar caps (resulting in increased saline density in the ocean, thus changine the trade currents), there are too many variables to take into consideration. Suffice it to say that one man's trash will be come another man's treasure, and vice versa.
     
     
  9. Economic Devastation. The majority of the world's wealth and commerce is concentrated in America, Europe, and China. America will be mostly destroyed and uninhabitable Much of Europe will be emmigrated from due to the artic change in climate, and the same can be said of China. Smaller economies will find their cash crops die off, tourism will practically cease to exist, the loss of infrastructure and communication, complete burial of solid assets under tons of ash, and the sheer loss of human life (including their knowledge, skills, labor, etc) will cause an almost total collapse of the global economy.
     
  
  

Conclusion: The human race will continue, but the habitable areas of the planet will be greatly reduced, countless lives and resources will be lost, and entire countries will fall.

As for the food problem, I would say hydroponics will play a large part in the process, as fish will likely be poisonous, or die out from some key part of the food chain gone missing. A bigger problem is going to be fresh water, which again, is going to be hard to predict, given the change in weather patterns.