Trump's withdrawal from Kurdistan is a trap for Erdogan.
Days after United States announced the withdrawal of troops from Kurdish regions of Northern Syria. Turkey under Erdogan declared an unilateral
offensive against the Kurdish forces in Northern Syria. The "betrayal" by the United states on their Kurdish allies was not expected, but it had to
happen sooner or later considering the relationship between the two NATO allies(US and Turkey) in the past few years.
Since 1978, Turkey has been in conflict against the PKK, a Kurdish militant group which Turkey believes to be a terrorist organisation. Turkey
believes, the very same militant groups operating in Northern Syria are also operating among the YPG and the SDF. Hence they are viewed as a national
security threat to the Turkish state. Syrian crisis has also lead to the formation of a minor Kurdish state on the norther part of Syria which has
angered the Turks even further. A Kurdish state bordering Turkey is inconceivable for Erdogan. This offensive against the Kurds was only a matter of
time. It was bound to happen sooner rather than later.
Last Friday/ 11nth of October. Turkish artillery strike landed 300m of to a US commando outpost. Turkish military being part of NATO would know known
precisely the location of US military bases along the Turkish border. Also these US military bases would be marked as NFA - "No fire areas". One can
only conclude that these was a deliberate strike, a message to the Americans to leave the area. Any case of "accidental firing" is simply out of the
The White-house decision to withdraw from Northern Syria and the global humiliation the US has received over its decision to "betray" the Kurds is
unexpected. The US from what I understand operates covertly a lot more than it operates overtly. Which is why i believe there is a bigger game at
play here. Americans would never take a decision if it did not benefit them in any way. Erdogan, most likely has been baited by Trump to invade the
Kurds. This entire incident seem to be the last stages of a geopolitical chess game that has been going on in the ME for last few years.
Lets look at the bigger picture. Just in the last few months, Saudi's from its very belligerent stance against Iran seems to have suddenly had an
Epiphany, recently the Saudi FM had told Sky News that SA wanted to avoid any conflict with Iran. UAE has already pulled out of Yemen. Saudi
Military's failure in Yemen and UAE's withdrawal could have forced Saudi's to come to some sort of an agreement with the Iranians.
Erdogan is most likely the elaborate victim of a geopolitical chess game. Turkey has most likely been planning for this invasion for a long time and
the Americans were aware of it. It is simply impossible to mobilize for an invasion along the Syrian border and for White-house to be caught off
guard. Its possible that the White-house was informed of what was about to happen and secretly gave a green light. Erdogan in his obsession to reform
the Ottoman Empire most likely did not see through the US game plan.
A Military conflict is out of the question as the US military has already withdrawn from the immediate area. US has initiated economic sanctions on
Turkey. That is in addition to the massive diplomatic hammering it is already receiving. It's unlikely that the Turks will be able to withstand this
pressure for too long. Either the Turks will have to withdraw completely from Syria, humiliating Erdogan internationally and domestically. Or be
engaged in a prolonged war which will throw Turkey into a quagmire. Both options are bad for Erdogan. Both these options are beneficial for Trump for
a number of reasons.
Erdogan has been a constant thorn for the Americans, A NATO ally which has begun increasingly siding with the Russians. Domestically ousting Erdogan
and replacing him with a more pro secular and pro West leader would be extremely beneficial for Americans. On the other hand, Erdogan ends up in a
prolonged war with the Syrians, Iranians. Trump possibly hopes that either Erodgan will be thrown out, or Iran and its allies will be forced into a
prolonged conflict with Turkey.
Russia and Iran, both directly benefits from this. It enables Assad to reunite Syria again as the Kurds won't really have much of a choice to begin
with. While Iranians on one hand gets to expand its influence into Syria. Russians gets the chance to be the new heroes of the region. Any deployment
of Russian forces into the region will further complicate matters for Turkey. Turkey has already angered the US for its purchase of the S-400. Turkey
is unlikely to make any move against the Russians if the they were to deploy along with their SAA allies. Also note, Russia likely still remembers the
shooting down of its Su-24 by Turkish fighter Jets.
Russians also want to halt Turkey's exploration of the massive gas reserves of the coast of Cyprus. Russians want to remain the sole energy supplier.
Fall of Erdogan after this would ensure Turks will not have the diplomatic muscle to carry out any aggressive moves into gaining control of this gas
field near Cyprus
"Russians earlier has a deal with Turkey to build the South Stream. The Russia energy giant GazProm will carry gas from Russia to Turkey, the
capacity to hold up to 63 billion cubic meters of gas from one end of the pipe to the other. "
Both the Americans and the Russians gain substantially from the fall of Erdogan. Both these nations are likely to follow up with actions that finally
result in the ouster of Erdogan. Hence its my likely conclusion that there is some sort of agreement between the Putin, Trump and Rouhani on how to
solve the ME situation permanently and how to deal with a belligerent Turkey.
My own website
Hey folks, i have posted my own analysis on my website and decided to post the same over here.
edit on 15-10-2019 by maddy21 because: (no reason given)