Hurricane Dorian taking aim at Florida

a reply to: Phage

And all of them are nuts.

I believe that would be beyond debate.

BTW, has anyone heard if there is still a Freeport?

TheRedneck

it is slowly losing energy so that is good news for the US coast.

140 mph 942 mb

As it looses energy it collapses and becomes less affected by upper level easterly steering winds from the continental trough, thus more affected by lower level winds coming off the Atlantic Basin....moving it towards the coast. It might wobble west 25 miles because of this effect.

The combination of weakening with no westward movement is the key to look for.

It does look better for me now. My other neighbor called and said not to worry. He's "lived there 25 years", lol. I am about 2 mi north of Daytona and 25 miles north as well. Palm Coast is excellent for what I want in Florida. Hurricanes are not as big problem there as further south. The storms tend to get bumped off the coast northwards, or more likely just stay to the south.

a reply to: roadgravel

Winds down to 130 and Florida is completely out of the cone of probability.
Watching S Carolina and Hatteras now.

a reply to: Nyiah

Thankfully it is not intensifying. It is getting weaker.
They just announced that Florida is completely clear as far as landfall.
They still have to watch the tides as water will still be pushed ashore by offshore winds.
It should be down to a two by the time is gets to South Carolina. Not great but not a major hurricane either.
In this mid atlantic region we know how to weather LOL a cat 2. It will take out power which sucks. It will knock down trees which also sucks but it wont destroy houses unless a tree lands on it.

The bahamas are getting destroyed tonight. If you have faith pray for them. Homes are completely underwater and they are saying tomorrow is a rescue and recovery operation. Its looking very very bad for them.

a reply to: Violater1
No they dont.
NOAA is stand alone.
National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration monitors the waterways and atmosphere and is under the department of commerce.
They do the monitoring themselves. They do not get their weather forecasts from the Navy but they do get data from ships at sea which includes the Navy.
If anything the Navy probably gets its weather forecasts from them.
This is the home of the hurricane hunters who fly into the storms. The Air Force also does but not the Navy.

a reply to: TheRedneck

NOAA is the home of the hurricane hunters. They fly into the storm. They gather the data.
They provide the data to others but they also formulate their own forecasts.

Hurricane hunters are aircrews that fly into tropical cyclones to gather weather data. In the United States, the organizations that fly these missions are the United States Air Force Reserve's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Hunters

www.nrlmry.navy.mil...

www.nrlmry.navy.mil...

Cheese and rice

a reply to: TheRedneck

I would rather think of them as brave and selfless taking those risks.
But you are correct those planes are very very stout aircraft. They look like brick #houses.

a reply to: Sillyolme

I would rather think of them as brave and selfless taking those risks.

That would be another statement that is beyond debate.

I have been through a few smaller tornadoes, and have seen with my own eyes the damage a major tornado can do. A hurricane has winds as strong as most tornadoes, and it covers an area orders of magnitude larger. I like to think I understand a hurricane's intensity, but I wouldn't bet money on it.

I remember a time when I was young. A small (F-1 or weak F-2) tornado jumped the mountain range beside the road Dad and I were on. I didn't see it right away but Dad did. He steered the truck into a deep ditch. As I looked over and up trying to figure out what just happened, the vortex came across. I saw directly into that swirling mass of insane madness. I doubt I'll ever forget that day.

To purposely interject oneself into that sort of hell on that massive a scale to advance science and save lives is an act of heroism of the highest order IMO. It also takes a certain amount of personal insanity. So how about we split the difference and call them "brave, selfless nuts"?

BTW, it's been a long, long time since I felt compelled to star one of your posts. Well done, Silly. Well done.



TheRedneck

At 2am it's not even raining anyplace inland FL, and the west side of the storm itself looks a little weak on radar.



CNN forecast about 10pm

a reply to: FlyingFox

GOOD NEWS FOR MOST!

Dorian Downgraded to a Category 3 Storm: www.foxnews.com...

(Bad News for the HYPEsters and Doom-lovers)

The trough has dug down and should pull Dorian north now. Looking good for Florida.

Absolute worst case scenario for Grand Bahama and it's still not over yet. God have mercy.

Josh Mogerman, one of the storm chasers who went to the Abacos is missing. No further information at this point.

mobile.twitter.com...
mobile.twitter.com...

The Conch Republic Navy in Key West is trying to organize an Armada to help with relief effort in the Bahamas.

Nothing left in much of the Abacos.

a reply to: jrod

God have mercy, indeed. I fear this may be just the first glimpse of what is truly a disaster of epic proportions for the Bahamas. Freeport alone had a population of 27,000.

Dorian now at Cat 2.

TheRedneck

a reply to: TheRedneck

Grand Bahama and Freeport are still feeling storm. Haven't heard much from them yet. No doubt it is really bad, worse than Abacos there.

Before and after satellite image

Hurricane Dorian made landfall Sunday afternoon at Elbow Cay, Abacos in the Bahamas. The Category 5 storm came ashore with wind speeds up to 185 miles per hour and gusts up to 220 miles per hour.

originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: jrod

Dorian now at Cat 2.

TheRedneck

Thanks for the good news update! Media still in imminent USA disaster mode.