Hurricane Dorian taking aim at Florida

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: jrod

Satellite imagery movement makes Dorian look wound up tight enough to carve out her own path...like a bowling ball with lots of forward inertia.

It's powerful enough to undergo eyewall replacement cycles. When that happens, the eyewall will break down and the storm will weaken periodically as it renews itself. But while the most intense and strongest winds will be near the clearly defined eyewall, those winds will spread out during an eyewall replacement, and you'll get a much wider area of more high winds even though the overall top windspeeds weaken.

Those cycles can't be predicted, but they will happen.

a reply to: ketsuko

If there is a silver lining, it's that we're nearing the "official" end of Atlantic hurricane season.

a reply to: carewemust

Hurricane season in the Atlantic until November 30th. The peak is mid August until mid October.

originally posted by: carewemust
a reply to: ketsuko

If there is a silver lining, it's that we're nearing the "official" end of Atlantic hurricane season.

That official end of the Atlantic Hurricane season is still three months away since it runs June 1st to Nov 30.

My one neighbor called and is sitting out the storm. She said the tracks are improving, but for the moment, we are more or less in the bulls-eye. In the other location, my tenant is out of town on business.

The frustrating part is I have no frame of reference for what it takes to do damage. I actually covered 2 giant garage windows with plexi. I figured that I don't wan to replace old windows in the garage, but if I needed a brand new picture window in the living room, it would be a "plus" by comparison.

I know there's going to be some problems, but I just don't want to have to run down there before December.

a reply to: FlyingFox

Don't sound the all clear just yet.

One thing that I like to is fill the freezer with water bottles. That way it will stay longer without power and you can drink the water.

a reply to: jrod

Hmm... Is it Really Hurricane Dorian " Taking Aim " at Florida , Or SOMEthing Else > ?..........

a reply to: FlyingFox

Pressure dropped to 938.6 mb and winds are up to cat 5.
The official track from 5 PM is still off shore but the forward speed of the storm is faster than it should be the last couple hours so there may not be time for it to slow and stall a safe distance from the coast.

originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: carewemust

Hurricane season in the Atlantic until November 30th. The peak is mid August until mid October.

Sorry. I was thinking of Tornado season.

originally posted by: Slichter
a reply to: FlyingFox

Pressure dropped to 938.6 mb and winds are up to cat 5.
The official track from 5 PM is still off shore but the forward speed of the storm is faster than it should be the last couple hours so there may not be time for it to slow and stall a safe distance from the coast.

In the most recent satellite loop, Dorian looked to be forging ahead with no hint of a curve towards the north. That was 5 hours ago.

But the local news (WGN-9 Chicago) just now showed Dorian starting the turn northward, and missing the entire U.S. mainland.

Plus, major news outlet websites are now pushing Dorian to the side, in favor of other news.

It's a good thing Florida didn't institute mandatory evacuations. There would be millions of angry people this Labor Day weekend.

a reply to: carewemust

In the most recent satellite loop, Dorian looked to be forging ahead with no hint of a curve towards the north. That was 5 hours ago.

But the local news (WGN-9 Chicago) just now showed Dorian starting the turn northward, and missing the entire U.S. mainland.

It's moving too slowly for a noticeable change in trajectory in such a short time.

a reply to: Liquesence

Still no signs of a north turn. He will slow down and may even stall before making the turn.

Some computer models shifted back west recently. We are still waiting on the new Euro model output, one of the powerhouse computer models. If that one shifted significantly west, it will force the NHC to shift their track closer to Florida a 5am.

Still a lot of uncertainty.

I was surprised it was not upgraded to a Cat 5 at 11pm. Pressure is down to 934mb and the wind estimate is still 150mph.

The latest Euro is 60 miles closer to Florida than the previous run. This is significant.

It is at the point that every wobble and every mph in forward speed can make the difference for the East Coast of Florida

It's going to be tough to get some much needed sleep. I'm very curious to what the NHC will do with their official track at 5am. In my humble opinion this will warrant a hurricane watch and extend the tropical storm watches for Florida.

originally posted by: Liquesence
a reply to: carewemust

In the most recent satellite loop, Dorian looked to be forging ahead with no hint of a curve towards the north. That was 5 hours ago.

But the local news (WGN-9 Chicago) just now showed Dorian starting the turn northward, and missing the entire U.S. mainland.

It's moving too slowly for a noticeable change in trajectory in such a short time.

I agree, it looks like Dorian is messing up media and local forecasters thought processes. It's like watching a group of people get off the wildest ride at a theme park. Some are off balance, and some look "dazed".

a reply to: jrod

The recon plane found winds over 155 mph but the dropsondes were flagged as suspect?
Maybe the Russians are jamming the dropsonde radio frequencies?
Sunday is too late for a Cat 5 to change the steering environment much, just helps stall a tiny bit sooner.
Current position is 26.4 N 76 W exact latitude of the Trump International Golf resort.
NHC is following the ECMWF model which calls for a stall followed by a turn to the NNW.

a reply to: Slichter

The recon has found that support 165mph, but they NHC apparently doesn't just them.

a reply to: jrod

It's officially 160mph, a Cat 5 now with an ear popping pressure of 927 MB.

Josh Mogerman and Jim Edds are on Abacos Island hoping to intercept the eye.

twitter.com...

twitter.com...

originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: jrod

It's officially 160mph, a Cat 5 now with an ear popping pressure of 927mb.

Josh Mogerman and Jim Edds are on Abacos Island hoping to intercept the eye.

twitter.com...

a reply to: jrod

I just saw the Cat 5 upgrade.

It's a damn tight storm, with wind speeds not extending as far out as most, but that's a hell of a lot of energy tied up in those bands. When it starts to subside, all that energy is going to have to go somewhere.

Looks like it's flushing part of the northern Bahamas right now.

TheRedneck

175mph and 922mb per the latest from the NHC.

They guys whose Twitter feeds I linked better be prepared. They already lost their feeds, no telling when they will be back online.

I believe this will be the strongest recorded storm to hit the Bahamas.