Hurricane Dorian taking aim at Florida

a reply to: fightzone58

Funny...NBC was actually filming at my work today.

I am just going info from the NHC and 30+ years of tracking storms.

Todays models shifted right...and hinted the storm could miss Florida completely. 2 days ago all indications showed an imminent strike(though the storm has been on the right side throughout his life.

Tomorrow will be able to narrow down the uncertainty. 2 days ago so I would give a Florida strike probability around a 90/10, right now it's closer to a 60/40.

a reply to: jrod

The sooner the ridge dies the better, I guess.

a reply to: Phage

The storm is now moving due west, faster than forecasted.

The model guidance will no doubt have to adjusted if this motion continues throughout the morning.

a reply to: jrod

Thanks for the update. They are appreciated, because you get to the point.

I'm nervous because I have 2 places just north of Daytona. Some of the tracks are not looking good, but if it comes in far to the south or if it stays off the coast are ok for me.

Not that I forget about other people getting the brunt of the storm, but I was just down there and could have boarded up my living room window, but I blew it off, thinking this is late in the season.

I'm actually trying to decide if I should fly down from the Northeast next week, or at least buy a ticket now, so I am ready if I need to go. I already have a vehicle there, so I have that going for me.

I think anything over 60 mph is a problem for me, basically a block from the beach.

Does anyone know which computer model has the best record for accuracy with Atlantic Hurricanes over the past 5 years?

The local weather guy just showed all the model tracks. There must have been at least 20 overlayed. Even though most of the prediction tracks showed Dorian turning north before arriving in Florida, he kept saying it will come ashore close to Daytona Beach, then turn north.

I'm wondering why most forecasters are still predicting a Florida landfall, when (it looks like) more than 50% of the models are now NOT pointing to a Florida landfall. They must be latching on to the most historically accurate model(s)??

a reply to: FlyingFox

Dorian went through a rapid intensification cycle reaching cat 4 early which changed the dynamic environment.
Models are now predicting a complete Florida miss.
Will probably reach cat 5 today rather than Sunday.
Dorian will need to be above 27 N in 48 hours for this forecast to verify.

The 8am advisory is out. Up to 145 mph and 944mp, moving west at 12mph.

The official track takes it just offshore of Florida with no changes since 5am. Tomorrow the stall then north turn is scheduled to start.

Been quietly watching this thing, like I watch all of them and have for decades. Florida, be ready.

It started out as a potential hurricane, probably Cat1 at landfall. That's a soaker. Then came the warnings that it could stall out and flood an area. Next thing I saw was it was forecast to be a Cat2 at landfall and turn up the middle of Florida. Then the news started talking about the possibility of a Cat3. Now we're settling in on Cat4 and a good possibility that it'll swing up the coast.

I would be getting concerned at this point if I lived in Georgia or South Carolina. If I lived in Florida, I would not be in Florida.

This is one of those unpredictable monsters that pop up every so often. The NWS does a good job usually trying to stay on top of these things, but sometimes it takes gut instinct to stay ahead of them. To the poster who was talking about "Joe," please keep us informed in the future what he says. It sounds like he had Dorian's number before Dorian did.

Damn... just saw the Fox report. Now forecast to stall and turn north as a Cat4 off the Florida coast, Cat3 through Georgia, Cat 2 in South Carolina, who knows from there. At this point it wouldn't surprise me if Dorian takes a coastline tour up to South Carolina, loops back around and restrengthens, then plows through Florida again and starts messing around in the Gulf.

Everyone stay safe.

TheRedneck

a reply to: TheRedneck

The thing is that even if the eyewall stays offshore, you're looking at a broad area up the coast that will potentially receive Cat 3 to Cat 4 wind damage from the storm. That's severe to catastrophic wind damage leaving out the rainfall and any storm surge effects that might come too. And with the eye staying off shore over warmer waters, it will stay stronger, longer.

So the new projections aren't necessarily a good thing for Florida or any state further north for that matter.

From what I find the UKMET model is considered most accurate for the path in 2017.

If I recall correctly, didn't 2 days ago the UKMET have the storm more north and now more east and coastal.

a reply to: jrod your mistake was trying to make a claim on where a hurricane would go while it was 1000 miles away from the alleged target. it could still miss the united states or it could turn sharp to the west and give us a breeze. nobody knows what a hurricane is gonna do until it does it. that type of fearmongering caused the gas station and water issues we have. meanwhile on good morning america they showed people calmly getting water off full shelves and no lines at gas pumps in the bahamas this morning.

a reply to: ketsuko

That was my point. The worst thing a hurricane can do is stall right offshore. You still get the full effects, but there's no mechanism in place to weaken the storm. It's a self-sustaining water pump inland with catastrophic winds as a bonus.

Definitely not good news for Florida!

TheRedneck

a reply to: carewemust

none of the models are accurate predictions. the local news is calling for a florida hit because they are told to do the fearmongering bit. the major corporations that own the station you watch have interests in convincing you to spend money preparing before its necessary. if they can get enough people to stock up on gas water and food, it creates a shortage that forces people that see threw the lie to do the same just in case

a reply to: fightzone58

So, now that the track has officially shifted away from Florida, and to Georgia / South Carolina, the goal is to make those people panic and spend lots of money?

www.foxnews.com...

Thanks for the tips.

Models shifted east over night and this morning taking the official track from Florida(but still within the margin of error aka the cone uncertainty.

As we speak the models appear to shifing back west. I think it is too early to give Florida the all clear.

An intermediate advisory is due out at 2pm EDT with a full advisory at 5pm.

This a an extemely strong storm with 150mph sustained winds.

a reply to: fightzone58

As a Florida native, the only prep I had to do was fill up the car. I'm prepared this time of year. Not much in the way of supplies I need. Unfortunately most rookie Floridians are not and panic unnecessarily.

3 days ago the pros were saying there is nothing to push it north and had almost 100% computer guidance support to put Florida in the bullseye.

As I posted before, it's too soon to give Florida the all clear.

The late great John Hope would say follow the cirrus clouds for an indicator of where a storm wants to go. Those clouds are going toward S/CFL.

Almost all tracks take it north now, but not all of them agree on when and where it will turn. Some still have it pushing inland before it turns that way while others have it making the turn far out over the ocean. Most have it hugging the coast right now.

a reply to: jrod

Satellite imagery movement makes Dorian look wound up tight enough to carve out her own path...like a bowling ball with lots of forward inertia.