Hurricane Dorian taking aim at Florida

originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: ketsuko
If your local weatherman thinks he knows better than the National Hurricane Center, then he is an idiot and no one should take him seriously.

Out of curiosity who is he and what station airs him?

Trust the National Hurricane Center. In hindsight, it's almost always found that the Media hyped hurricanes to be more destructive than they actually were.

Fake News CNN just reported that Puerto Rico will be "hit hard" by Hurricane Dorian tonight. WRONG.

Until it gets to category 3, most media outlets will bury the fact that Dorian is a relatively weak hurricane.

a reply to: jrod

This is Joe.

Among other things, he has chief experience in Orlando, FL, and he's served several terms as president of the local AMS chapter as well as serving as veep for a number of years. He was also part of a team for a number of years with Mike THompson who was no slouch himself.

If you wanted to know what was happening with the weather in this area, you paid attention to them.

Joe blogs about weather all over the country because he's clearly fascinated by it as all good weathermen should be. I've read his take on a number of storms in the past and he does a good job.

I find it interesting that first you blast me for saying the forecast is still potentially uncertain and call me a fool, and then you backpedal on that and allow that of course this far out the forecast is a bit uncertain. It is with any storm at this point. Very seldom can anyone nail it this far out. It was fairly astonishing that the October blizzard forecast in this area stayed as constant as it did. That never happens.

a reply to: ketsuko

Didn't mean to come across that way. I was told some tv Mets in Orlando were acting like it was not a threat to the area last night and this morning because one model was trending north. They are definitely eat crow on that.

Every hurricane has it unique complexities, especially the stronger ones. There is no such thing as a straightforward hurricane forecast.

a reply to: carewemust

It's well on it's way. I would not be suprised if it's a Cat 3 by this time tomorrow.

Up to 80mph and strengthening now while pulling away from Puerto Rico.

originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: carewemust

It's well on it's way. I would not be suprised if it's a Cat 3 by this time tomorrow.

Up to 80mph and strengthening now while pulling away from Puerto Rico.

Thanks for these updates 👌🏼

a reply to: jrod I have lived in Florida 30 years. I was in Andrew, charley, Wilma and Irma's. I spent Charley in a car. This storm won't be a big deal. I'm sure a bunch of rich snowbirds will freak out. They always do

a reply to: fightzone58

You must have had bad luck and moved around a bunch given each of those storms effected different parts of the state.

That is a very naive thing to say given every computer makes this storm a major hurricane and the east coast of Florida has not been hit by a true monster since Andrew in 1992.

Many people in Mexico Beach and Panama City thought the same thing last year before Michael made landfall.

a reply to: jrod

the eyes of wilma and irma made landfall in collier county. charley hit charlotte county an hour north.i went with a friend to party in it i was on the other coast for andrew. that was 27 years ago. we have established that you think collier county is a different part of the state than collier county. we have also established that you buy into the medias claims that a cat 3 is a major hurricane. i wont even board up the windows for a cat 2. a cat 3 depends on its size and speed. if its small and fast itll take longer to board up than to ride it out. if a cat 3 is a major storm as you seem to think then the east coast has been hit by a major hurricane since andrew ( jeanne 2004). feel free to lookup the death toll for these storms. take note of how many of those deaths occured in the caribbean. we build with hurricanes in mind here in florida. i used to build pool enclosures. you are living in the wrong state to be so afraid of wind.

Forecast to be a Cat 4 at landfall now. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the computer models, however an East Coast Florida strike still appears imminent.

There is an extremely small chance the storm can turn north before hitting Florida, however this is highly unlikely.

It is becoming increasing likely the storm will slow down around landfall then turn north. This is a very bad scenerio because flooding on top of extreme winds will cause major devastation.

Florida residents need to monitor this closely and begin executing their hurricane plan(s).

The latest from the National Hurricane Center:

The small eye of Dorian has appeared intermittently in infrared
satellite imagery this morning. Recent reports from a NOAA P-3
aircraft indicate that there is now a double eyewall structure,
with a small inner eye only 5 n mi in diameter and a larger 25-n mi
diameter outer eyewall. The minimum pressure has fallen to
around 986 mb. The concentric eyewall structure is likely why the
aircraft has not found any stronger winds yet in the storm, despite
the decrease in central pressure. The initial intensity remains 75
kt for this advisory.

Aircraft and satellite fixes show that Dorian is moving
northwestward, or 325 degrees at 11 kt. Dorian is forecast to
continue moving northwestward during the next 24-36 hours between an
upper-level low that will be dropping southwestward across the
Florida Straits and a mid-level ridge to the northeast of the
hurricane. After that time, a ridge is forecast to build to the
north of Dorian, which should cause the track to bend back toward
the west-northwest. The track guidance becomes more divergent beyond
72 hours, primarily due to model differences in the strength of the
ridge and whether a weakness develops in the ridge late in the
period. The new NHC track forecast is virtually unchanged from the
previous advisory, and lies very close to the multi-model consensus.
It should be noted that the ECMWF, UKMET, and HFIP corrected
consensus models remain south of the official forecast. The spread
of the deterministic models and the various ensemble guidance is
still considerable at days 4 and 5, and it is too soon to specify
where along the Florida east coast the greatest impacts could
occur.

Environmental conditions consisting of warm waters and low vertical
wind shear along the path of the hurricane should allow for at least
steady intensification during the next 2 to 3 days. With the small
inner core and favorable conditions, rapid strengthening also
remains a possibility, although not likely in the very short term
given the concentric eyewall structure. The updated NHC intensity
forecast calls for Dorian to become a major hurricane on Friday, and
shows a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous forecast.
The official forecast is at the upper end of the guidance, in best
agreement with the HCCA and HWRF models.

Key Messages:

1. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern
Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued there tonight or
Friday. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

2. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge
along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early
next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest
storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan
in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida
east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week
continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where
the strongest winds will occur.

4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected
to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the
southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next
week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 21.4N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 25.6N 71.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 26.3N 73.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 27.0N 76.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 27.5N 79.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

a reply to: fightzone58

I am a Florida native, Cocoa Beach now living in Key West. I have stayed through many mandatory evacuations, and even recommend staying in many situations. Charlie was the only the major hurricane that went through your area, though it had a tiny core. Irma when she made landfall in the Fort Myers was over estimated in strength at that time.

Your type of thinking gets people killed. This storm is looking like it will be a monster when it gets here. Hopefully it stays small and the major to catastrophic damage will be isolated. One would be a fool to ride out the storm on the barrier island in the eye wall. However it is way too early to make an educated guess on where ground zero will be.

a reply to: fightzone58

I'm sure a bunch of rich snowbirds will freak out. They always do

that made me chuckle
thanks
hope you guys stay safe

Down in the keys and shores in low lying areas, wind is not the main factor, it’s the storm surge that catches people by surprise, Causing the most damage. 35” or more of salt water rushing in in the middle of the night is not fun at all, especially with the power out.

Was just looking at all my photos of Mexico Beach....such a devastating thing.

a reply to: jrod

a reply to: jrod irma did far more damage than charley did in lee county. irma took down almost every tree in my neighborhood. it put marco under water. it destroyed chunks of naples. charley hit up in punta gorda. charley in punta gorda was on par with irma in naples. both were category 4 when they hit florida. you can still check those facts to this day. you people have to stop listening to what msm tells you and go read actual facts.
irma killed a total of 134 people, charley killed 35, and wilma got 87.big bad michael got 74. the 1 person from lee county that died in charley went outside to smoke a joint and got hit by a falling tree. the deadliest hurricane in modern times was mitch with 11000-12000 deaths. however 7000 were in honduras and almost 4000 were in nicaragua. it killed a whole 2 people in florida. katrina killed about 2000-3000 in louisiana. those people persist on living below sea level and building walls to keep the water out so death is inevitable for them. most people that die in hurricanes die because of what they are doing. if you pay attention to what is going on and plan ahead you have better odds of getting run over walking across the street than dying in a florida hurricane. the car risk is everyday

a reply to: fightzone58

Irma was a Cat 4 when she hit the keys and a Low end Cat 3 when she made landfall in the Fort Myers area. Charlie was much more intense and a solid cat 4 but much smaller than Irma.

I don't think you can compare storm deaths in 3rd world situations to the death toll in the US.

Joe's still watching Dorian. He posted model runs from both Euro and GFS ensembles.




Every "L" is a Low pressure which would basically be the potential location of Dorian on that model run for Tues., Aug. 3. Euro shows a bit more clustering than the GFS. It's obvious that somewhere in Florida is going to get hit, but not so obvious precisely where at this point according to the model runs.

All those different positions mean widely varied affects from a rain/flooding standpoint and from a wind standpoint.

Will it make it back into the western Gulf of Mexico? Will it recurve northbound after hitting Florida into the SE part of the country? Again factors that we don’t have a lot of confidence in. Remember 36 hours before the storm bypassed Puerto Rico…it was forecast to hit Puerto Rico…

Intensity is another challenge and is considered the hardest part of forecasting a storm like this. Meteorologists still have a tough time estimating the winds at certain times of the forecast. So will it be a CAT 3 storm making landfall…something weaker? Again this will be figured out as the storm evolves.

Interesting that the UKMET model from Europe gets the storm towards Vero Beach and stalls it for 24 hours or so…a result of the collapse in steering currents as the storm comes closer.

So a lot of this is still in flux…

I'd say at this point that it likely doesn't matter where you are in Florida, you ought to be preparing. And you guys on the coast better hope this thing doesn't stall out on your doorstep.

Understand too that Joe's blog is where he posts all the what ifs. He's not making any forecasts, just listing all the possible range of things that could happen. It's for weather geeks who understand that possible doesn't mean it will happen. There was a storm coming through the area last winter where his weather blog was talking about anywhere from 0 to 10" based on model runs for days before his actual forecast made any snow predictions at all because his weather blog is where he geeks out and gets into the weeds.

Category 5 hurricanes are hard to predict and don't usually remain at that intensity for long as conditions have to be just right. DJT canceled his trip to Poland

"To ensure that all resources of the federal government are focused on the arriving storm, I have decided to send our Vice President Mike Pence to Poland this weekend in my place,"

www.cnn.com...

a reply to: ketsuko

Your boy Joe has a good site for hurricane info.

Generally by now the models start to come to a consensus, the opposite is going on with Dorian. It still looks like a major strike for Florida is imminent and Palm Beach to Cape Canaveral are still in the danger zone.

The storm is expected to make the west turn tomorrow. That should make forecasting less of a guessing game.

a reply to: jrod


The models will have changed by now. I think they update every 12 hours or so, and these were from this morning.

a reply to: ketsuko

They models are getting much more data. When a storm approaches they launch more weather balloons and do more atmosphere sampling via NOAA's Gulfstream jets and and drones.

Some models update every 12hours and a few are every 6hours.

While it is normal to see models flip flop, it is a bit funny two power models, the GFS(aka American) and the Euro have flip flopped. Yesterday the GFS was the north outlier, today the Euro is and even misses Florida on about half it's ensemble runs. Meanwhile the GFS shifted South big time.

Tomorrow's models should have all the extra data and hopefully we will have a better consensus. The storm is almost forecast to make the westward turn tomorrow.

One thing the models are agreeing on is a slower forward speed, it now looks like it will not make landfall until late Monday or possibly Tuesday. Yesterday we were expecting a late Sunday landfall.

The new advisory will be out in minutes. I will post 'The cone of uncertainty'.