For Those Willing For the Protests to Spread to Mainland China...

Folks are in support of protesters in Hong Kong, with some even going as far as to say they "hope" the protests spread to mainland China and that the Communist Party is "usurped".

Now, I'm being completely impartial here, but those of you who think this need to think ahead. That's like supporting the overthrow of Vladimir Putin with no plan in place.

Have you considered how a destabilised China will be? How a fractured NUCLEAR nation of over 1.4 billion folks will deal with widespread unrest?

I hear what the Hong Kong protesters are saying, I really do. I hear stories of people "disappearing" in the mainland yes.

But "hoping" for these protests to "spread to the mainland" will only worsen the situation, not make it better.

It isn't far-fetched, but an "overthrow" of the CCP could potentially plunge the People's Republic into great, great chaos.

Let us also not forget the edgy small nation to the east, which brandishes its nukes every now and then and reminds us that it still exists.

A destabilised People's Republic is in nobody's best interest.

a reply to: AnakinWayneII
China might fracture if the CCP were to be nullified, but it wouldn't have to be.

If 250, million Chinese start protesting/rioting on the mainland.

They don’t need a plan.

On the nuclear weapons all you need to look at is the fall of the Soviet union and the term “loose nukes” . Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan suddenly found theirselves with around 5500 nuclear missiles . There wasn’t a problem because they were all turned over . .

The biggest problem g large scale confrontation in China. Is the damage it would do to the world economy .

a reply to: AnakinWayneII

It could work if people all over the world simultaneously overthrew their respective governments at the same time..

Nah who am I kidding better the devil you know and all that.

My solution? Enlightenment now for everyone, especially the sociopaths at the top.

a reply to: AnakinWayneII

So irrational FEAR prevents you from wanting something good ?

Hey that's why none of us have good things. Because people are always afraid something bad might happen. But you know what? Bad things happen all the time anyways.

Don't let FEAR control your mind and outlook.

The USSR collapsed and none of their nukes went off.
Calm yourself and think rationally.
Everything will be fine if China's govt collapses.

a reply to: AnakinWayneII

China is made up of many ethnicity's with the HAN being by far the largest (and one of the most racist groups on earth believing themselves superior to all other humans even when all the evidence say's otherwise).

China would split into at least - at least - two nation's but probably as many as 8 or nine very sizable nations if it ever did dissolve BUT only if, there have been many time's when China had no leader, when it's government was shattered and when it was fragmented but despite these ethnic division's the minority's in China have always been outweighed by the majority Han due to there sheer numbers (the Han themselves are not a pure group and though there are some that regard themselves as pure Han with an almost NAZI like pride in that they are actually at least half of other ethnicity's that simply regard themselves as Han).

The one over riding danger of such an improbable break up would be for some of it's nuclear arsenal to make it's way into radical Islamist hand's and even more dangerous for it's weapon scientists to find work developing rogue nation's such weapons of there own.

But that is never going to happen, no one want's that though it would be nice to see Tibet free or at least for the Chinese to stop there ethnic persecution of native minority's including the Tibetan's whom suffered forced sterilization while Han were shipped in to colonize Tibet by the Beijing Government after there invasion of that nation.

But remember this, people crave rule and law and freedom, they can never find those from a monolithic communist autocracy, so there will always be a craving for local rule above and beyond the corrupt local party official of the communist regime and this will always spark the idea of Democracy of rule by consent rather than by imposition upon those region's.

a reply to: LABTECH767

The odds of Chinese nuclear secrets and arms finding their way into Islamist hands are about the same as they were for Russian arms and secrets at the fall of the USSR. Everyone was worried about that happening then, too. It was less pressing then because the USSR was the boogeyman of the day, but the danger was very much the same.

a reply to: ketsuko

You know what though, some probably did, there are supposedly several low yield and probably now much too decayed suitcase bomb's that the Soviets developed for deployment to there embassy's missing and also for decades after the break up of the soviet union the whereabouts of many of there nukes were actually a mystery, I doubt all of those are accounted for.
The only reason we have not seen them used is that they are probably so valuable that those that paid for them are likely not to be the nut case terrorist type but more likely to be state players - also they are probably mostly very old and if not properly maintained there fissionable material may have decayed quite a bit making them lower yield and dirtier than they were intended to be.

a reply to: LABTECH767

Exactly state players would most likely be able to get there hands on nuclear material. I’m old enough to remember reports of nuclear materials unaccounted for.

Also let’s not forget the USSR didn’t break up because of a revolution. It was the handiwork of state players and pressure from the west.

a reply to: AnakinWayneII

I agree Anakin.. mostly.

The only part of your assessment is when you call China a communist nation. Sure they call the leading party , the Communist Party but it is not. It is a corporation with the name Communist Party. It is one corporate capitalist nation and from there your assessment that to destabilize them at this point in time would be catastrophic.

Our world is now run by corporations, the notion that we are still individual nations, communist or not is irrelevant. The time to defeat this new world order was at least fifty years ago or longer. All the pointing to Communists and Socialists and worry that they are trying to take over the world is way out of date simply because socialism lost in the battle between that philosophy and the philosophy of capitalism.

No, destabilizing a whole corporate structure such as China would serve no end for us regular folk, all it would do would be to allow a gap to be filled by lower grade ''warlord'' types.

Like you I sympathize with those protesters but that kind of stuff would have been better off if it had happened ages ago.

a reply to: LABTECH767

I'm not saying it was all ever accounted for, only that it getting out into the hands of lunatics who actually would use it managed not to happen. I recall that fear.

Most of the large players in the world still have a vested interest in not using nukes even if they have them.

a reply to: TerryMcGuire

Very well said, however that kind of stuff as you put it was tried 50+ years ago and quelled everywhere just about. There is nothing dirtier than political intrigues, spooks and gangsters making deals for power and domination.

a reply to: AnakinWayneII

Yeah, people seem to think you can just yank the rug out from under folks and it's all Disney movie ending hunky dory.
With systems that have been established as long as China's or even North Korea's, that might make some folks happy, but MANY others would have zero idea how to conduct themselves in any other government without planning and guidance, let alone with a power vacuum immediately after a fall.

Those citizens have to be prepared, understand the path they changed to, and WILLING. Just because some American schmuck thinks they are doesn't mean s#, it just means they're another American know-it-all worth ignoring because they can't be bothered to think strategically and further than the length of their nose. How would the US do if we switched to some other government system overnight? Not too damn well, smartasses, not too damn well at all.

a reply to: AnakinWayneII

I think we will see something more akin to how the Soviet Union fell, a piece at a time. When you educate a population, give them access to traveling the world and introduce them to capitalism, communism can't survive.

I think your fears are unfounded and a bit hysterical. The Communist Party of China will self destruct, but it will be a decades long process.

What you suggest is exactly what the Party insiders would like the world to believe.

a reply to: muzzleflash

In my opinion, hope can be just as poisonous and destructive as fear. Just because things are bad doesnt mean they cant get much, much worse. Thats not an argument for inaction either, it just means these things need to be handled with extraordinary caution and foresight. Something greatly lacking in so many places in the world.

Even so, I genuinely hope this works out for the people of HK and China at large. Not really anything we can do without walking a razors edge of open war with China.

I guess we can chat about it online, and bring awareness to things like some folks there waving our flag and singing our anthem (powerful), but for some reason.. I doubt the establishment in China cares. Not even a little.

originally posted by: Blaine91555
a reply to: AnakinWayneII

I think we will see something more akin to how the Soviet Union fell, a piece at a time. When you educate a population, give them access to traveling the world and introduce them to capitalism, communism can't survive.

I think your fears are unfounded and a bit hysterical. The Communist Party of China will self destruct, but it will be a decades long process.

What you suggest is exactly what the Party insiders would like the world to believe.

Actually, as one poster said above, China isn't quite as "communist" as you think, despite the ruling party being called "The Communist Party of China"...

originally posted by: AnakinWayneII

originally posted by: Blaine91555
a reply to: AnakinWayneII

I think we will see something more akin to how the Soviet Union fell, a piece at a time. When you educate a population, give them access to traveling the world and introduce them to capitalism, communism can't survive.

I think your fears are unfounded and a bit hysterical. The Communist Party of China will self destruct, but it will be a decades long process.

What you suggest is exactly what the Party insiders would like the world to believe.

Actually, as one poster said above, China isn't quite as "communist" as you think, despite the ruling party being called "The Communist Party of China"...

It's not the communist party regime specifically I'd be worried about, it's the way the communist party government keeps the ethnic groups in line. Once that iron fist is gone, all hell could break loose and make ME tribal infighting look like a preschool spat. China has a very long history of serious ethnic fighting. Ask anyone not Han about that.

a reply to: AnakinWayneII

Like I said, when you educate people, allow them to travel and introduce capitalism and all the perks that go with that, communism will fail.

The Chinese people have seen the transition from folk medicine, to Western medicine increase their lifespans by decades and their standard of living keep getting better and better due to interaction with the Western World. As the old guard dies out, China will eventually be indistinguishable from the West.

a reply to: Blaine91555

The Chinese people have seen the transition from folk medicine, to Western medicine increase their lifespans by decades and their standard of living keep getting better and better

Sorry I have to disagree with you here. The more Asian cultures use western medicine, food, etc, the worse their health and lifespan will be.

I worked for a Chinese man once. He was probably one of the smartest men I have ever met. He ran a Chinese restaurant. Often I would see people come in with money and give it to him, always very very happy. I finally asked his daughter what was up with that. She told me he was a medicine man and cured all these people from cancer. Not sure if he really did, but they all looked alive, well and happy.

a reply to: surfer_soul

Sadly surfer I am thinking you are right. I"m at a point where I think the conservative dream that there once was a ''better time'' is little more than looking back through a Camelot lens. Likewise the liberal dream that history is moving toward some paradise on earth is also myopic in that that philosophy holds to a sense that us humans will all eventually reach some level of social maturity. That I think is a sad thing that we humans are much more complex and chaotic then either of those two political philosophies wish to admit.

Sad or maybe very very interesting in that it can allow for a much broader and sweeping vista of just who and where we all are in this vast cosmic scheme.