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China's population forecast to peak at 1.44bn in 2029
'Unstoppable' decline to begin following year, say government researchers
JANUARY 05, 2019 20:16 JST
Visitors throng the Bund, Shanghai's waterfront, on the second day of the "Golden Week" holiday on Oct. 2, 2018. © Reuters
SHANGHAI (Reuters) -- China's population is set to reach a peak of 1.442 billion in 2029 and start a long period of "unstoppable" decline in 2030, government scholars said in a research report published on Friday.
The world's most populous country must now draw up policies to try to cope with a declining labor force and a rapidly aging population, according to the summary of the latest edition of the "Green Book of Population and Labor" published by the China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
SHANGHAI - China's northeastern province of Liaoning is planning to loosen birth restrictions and allow some couples to have a third child in a bid to improve dwindling fertility rates and stop its workforce from declining.
China introduced a controversial "one-child policy" in 1978, but relaxed restrictions in 2016 to allow all couples to have two children as it tried to rebalance its rapidly ageing population.
However, experts have called for more radical measures, with birth rates still in decline and China's health services and pension funds expected to come under increasing strain as the number of elderly people increases.
We’re losing 18.7 million acres of forests annually, equivalent to 27 soccer fields every minute.
In the Amazon, around 17% of the forest has been lost in the last 50 years, mostly due to forest conversion for cattle ranching. Deforestation in this region is particularly rampant near more populated areas, roads and rivers, but even remote areas have been encroached upon when valuable mahogany, gold, and oil are discovered.
Chinese demand for wood is consuming foorests around the globe. The rain forest of the Congo and Cameroon in central Africa, the Amazon basin and the islands of Indonesia are all being heavily logged to supply China's growing demand for wood and its rapidly-growing furniture industry.
Clear cutting and overgrazing have turned large areas of Qinghai province into a desert. Deforestation is blamed for the 4 percent decline in rainfall, 15 percent in the dry season, in the Xishuangbanna area of Yunnan, where 50 percent of local forest have been deforested.
About 28 percent of China is covered by desert and that amount of desert in China is getting larger every year. Deserts are being created faster in China than anywhere else in the world, with old deserts expanding and new deserts being formed. The rate of desertification nationwide is around 900 square miles a year, an area nearly the size of Rhode Island, with an area the size of New Jersey becoming desert every five years.
“Millions of Chinese eco-refugees have been resettled because their home environments degraded to the point where they were nolonger fit for human habitation," Jonathan Watts wrote in The Guardian. “The government says more than 150 million people will have to be moved in the future.
originally posted by: The2Billies
a reply to: muzzleflash
You may not know it but the world will begin a major decline in population beginning in 2029.
Is a dangerous population explosion imminent? For decades we’ve been told so by scientific elites, starting with the Club of Rome reports in the 1970s. But in their compelling book “Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline,” Canadian social scientist Darrell Bricker and journalist John Ibbitson lay out the opposite case: “The great defining event of the twenty-first century,” they say, “will occur in three decades, give or take, when the global population starts to decline. Once that decline begins, it will never end.” Their book is a vital warning to the world that the risks associated with population have been catastrophically misread: Governments and activists have spent decades fighting the specter of overpopulation, but now face the looming demographic calamity of global population collapse. Fewer people participating in the economy will mean slower economic growth, less entrepreneurship, rising inequality an d calamitous government debt.
The latest data from the UN refers to 2005-2010. 80% of the world population lives in countries where women have on average fewer than 3 children. The global average fertility rate is 2.5. This means that global fertility is barely higher than the global replacement fertility. The replacement fertility is the total fertility rate at which the population size stays constant. If there were no mortality in the female population until the end of the childbearing years, the replacement fertility would be exactly 2. With the current level of mortality the global replace fertility is 2.3 – the narrow gap between the current global fertility and the global replacement rate means that the increase of the world population is due to the increasing length of life and population momentum.1
Pulling examples from extensive on-the-ground research in settings as disparate as São Paulo favelas, Seoul universities, and Nairobi businesses, the authors combine a mastery of social-science research with enough journalistic flair to convince fair-minded readers of a simple fact: Fertility is falling faster than most experts can readily explain, driven by persistent forces. In Brazil and China, astonishing numbers of women opt for permanent sterilization well before the end of their fertile years (half of Chinese couples take this route). In South Korea and Japan, women delay childbirth until their 30s or forgo it altogether. There even has been an unexpected collapse in fertility among Hispanics in the United States: They, like most of America’s other ethnic groups, now have below-replacement birth rates. The drivers of global fertility decline are here to stay.
Fewer people participating in the economy will mean slower economic growth, less entrepreneurship, rising inequality and calamitous government debt.
originally posted by: muzzleflash
In the long run this is good news. Hopefully India can get it's population explosion under control too (and everyone else for that matter including the USA).
Having more people is detrimental to the global situation in many ways. All these factories and pollution, the demand for food and resources, etc. I can't see anything good coming from a overcrowded world. Crime would skyrocket, you'd have to stand in line forever, the govt can't hear out your problems because everyone's got problems and they don't have time to listen to the full story or think it through properly, etc.
Look at those photographs of the mega overcrowding. Who in their right mind wants to live in that mess?? I don't. I like having room to stretch my arms and being able to breathe fresh air. I also love nature and historical buildings and things like this which overpopulation demands for it to be bulldozed to make new room for them.