Asteroid about 100 metres in diameter - Traveling 24 kilometres a second has just missed the Earth

I'm normally an optimist, but doing something like this seems to be right on the edge of impossible to me. Something as large as a football field traveling at 24,000 kps would take a massive amount of power to move or break up. The only thing I know that can travel that fast in a vacuum would be a laser. Just moving an anti-asteroid device that large in space would take more time than we'd have, don't you think?

At 186,000 miles per second, light takes around 8.3 minutes to get from the sun to earth.

At 24,000kps (or 14,400mps) it would take that asteroid just under two hours to get from the sun to earth.

Even if a device like a super-power laser could be aimed in time, we have no way of knowing if it would be effective on a rock like that. It's not like landing a probe on a slow(ish)-moving asteroid like Ryugu at 150kph. It would take decades (based on current technology and skills) of engineering and testing to build something like that, and probably more money than all nations together have spent on every war that's ever been fought.

Would it be worth trying? Maybe. Would it be possible? Probably. Do you think there's a snowball's chance in h@3l of that happening. I don't.

originally posted by: charlyv

originally posted by: HalWesten
Why would it scare anyone? There isn't a darned thing we can do about it. If it happens, it happens. What if Yellowstone blows? What if someone drops a nuke on a large city or an EMP that takes out our entire power grid? If something like that happens, who ever is left will have to deal with the aftermath. Of course that would be horrific, survival instincts would kick in and we'd be left with an everyone-for-themselves scenario.

In the case of asteroids and comets, with enough warning time we can develop a defense against some of them. It is a very difficult endeavor, as things have to be perched and ready on a minutes notice.

Look at all of the money we pour into getting the drop on another countries missile launches... The Earth is a dangerous place to live.

Unless we had several months to years warning, there is absolutely nothing we could do about anything of considerable size and speed.

Do you realize how much energy would be required to even minimally alter the path of a half mile wide iron core mass travelling at 20,000 mph?

a reply to: Mach2

Kind of yes, I do. depending upon all of the variables, altering something a portion of a degree of trajectory can be the difference of a hit and a miss, if you have sufficient distance. Add to that, the things we have presently would seem like magic to most of us and I will bet it is being contemplated by those that have the means to accomplish it.

a reply to: HalWesten

Not only that, but many scientist beleive simply breaking it up could actually be worse due to the fact that the devastation could be spread out across an entire hemisphere, rather than a singe impact.

There have been close ones nearly every day this month. Two I think on 24th


2010 PK9 July 26 2019 03:04 PM 0 day 0.0210675460689913 0.0210753408840709 21.8 km/s

2019 NT1 July 27 2019 10:10 PM 1 day 0.0478474240892001 0.0494374308459938 26.851 km/s

2019 NN4 July 29 2019 02:02 AM 3 day 0.0163358168608207 0.0178182123175397 25.661 km/s

2019 ON August 01 2019 11:23 AM 6 day 0.017194018253913 0.0174247137249573 25.163 km/s

2016 AC193 August 05 2019 03:02 PM 10 day 0.0435172530963957 0.0449762550695575 18.8 km/s

2017 DU34 August 08 2019 07:59 AM 13 day 0.00442639180559129 0.0303334832293117 26.8 km/s
hisz.rsoe.hu...

a reply to: charlyv

That's why we would need to see it years in advance to have any chance.

I don't know what type of tech you think we have, but it all boils down to requiring a massive amount of precicely focused energy, or a very long advanced warning.

The documentaries and articles I have seen mainly focus on landing some sort of rocket on the astroid and "pushing" to alter the course, but the sheer speed of many of these objects makes that an almost impossible task.

Here you can put in a date and see what's coming.
www.asteroidsnear.com...

A lot of close one in Sept, but basically since I watch these I am surprised non have caused major damage yet.

originally posted by: Lucidparadox
100 meters?

Lets be real ok?

That wouldnt hardly have done a damn thing.

The area it wouldve hit probably would see something on par with a nuke, MAYBE.. but lets be real...

With the size of earth, I could almost guarantee it wouldnt have hit a populated area..

and even if it was heading in that direction.. the minute it wouldve hit our atmosphere it wouldve burned up and disintegrated to half the size if not less.

That is 328 ft

If the asteroid is as big as a 20-story building (200 feet on a side), it has an amount of energy equal to the largest nuclear bombs made today -- on the order of 25 to 50 megatons. An asteroid like this would flatten reinforced concrete buildings five miles from ground zero. It would completely destroy most major cities in the United States.

If the asteroid is a mile in diameter, it's likely to wipe out life on the planet. Let's hope that doesn't happen anytime soon!

science.howstuffworks.com...

Also, material is key.

There is a big difference between between a 10 meter iron octahedrite, and a chondrite of the same size.

Large irons at near vertical trajectories basically cannot be stopped by the atmosphere, and can blow right through it.

Barringer crater is a great example.

That is a pretty close call. Quite a few asteroids come from the areas where we cannot see them coming, people think that our scientists in that field are more technologically equipped than they really are.

originally posted by: rickymouse
That is a pretty close call. Quite a few asteroids come from the areas where we cannot see them coming, people think that our scientists in that field are more technologically equipped than they really are.

I don't know that it's technology that is the limiting factor. Funding, I would think, is probably hard to come by. I believe much of it is done by universities.

I don't know, specifically, how many observatories are involved in finding and tracking these objects, but there probably aren't that many, particularly in the southern hemisphere. There are a couple in Australia, but that's a vast amount of sky to cover, and let's face it, corporate entities aren't going to pony up much money for something there is no profit in.

If its made of a gas like helium then it
melts and looks like a shooting star. nice.

But! if its made of metal or hard rock.
then a Very very Big hole.....

and if it hits the sea?
the biggest tusamy ever

Wow.... at just over 86,000 Km per hour I would venture to say if that thing came anywhere near ground before exploding.... Tunguska?

a reply to: Mach2

It isn't money, it is that it is hard for the equipment to work when aiming it towards the sun. It is a lot easier if it is off from the sun, a lot more accurate too to judge orbit and speed, If you can't see it you can't track it.

a reply to: LookingAtMars

meh - in the days before NASA and other nations space agencies - your grandparentes and previous generations - sat in blissfull ignorance of near misses

i only care if i is in the blast zone of an actual impact

panic cost money.... !

a reply to: LookingAtMars

originally posted by: rickymouse
That is a pretty close call. Quite a few asteroids come from the areas where we cannot see them coming, people think that our scientists in that field are more technologically equipped than they really are.

Good point. I would like to think that this projectile, that has passed close by would be able to be timed and tracked now.

A grip on its' orbit may give data for its' future excursions near our planet. Suffice to say is there were a future prediction for this asteroids' inevitable collision with Earth maybe something can be devised in the meantime to ensure it can be countered.

Just a thought,

kind regards,

bally

originally posted by: charlyv
Also, material is key.

There is a big difference between between a 10 meter iron octahedrite, and a chondrite of the same size.

Large irons at near vertical trajectories basically cannot be stopped by the atmosphere, and can blow right through it.

Barringer crater is a great example.

yes

mass and velocity

KE = 1/2 mv²

The 30 times Horoshima sounds more like a low ball estimate with a relative approach speed of 24kms.

Assume average diameter of 100m (could be as high as 130m in this case) and an average density of 2000kg/m³*. Roughly spherical shape, so for mass:
m = [4/3 x π x 50m³] x 2000kg/m³ = ~ 1.000.000tons

maximum kinetic energy on impact based on relative approach speed*:
KE = 1/2 x 1.000.000t g x 24000m/s² = ~ 290 Petajoule

convert to TNT equivalent:
290PJ / 4.184 GJ = ~ 70MT of TNT

*average density of the asteroid could have been as low as 1000 kg/m³ or as high as 5000 kg/m³, ie impact energy varies between 150 and 750 petajoule for impact velocity of 24km/s
Also depending on the composition some material of the asteroid will burn up during entry.

*relative approach speed is not equvialent to the impact speed as the asteroid wont hit the earth dead on and might be deflected somewhat by the atmosphere

If we assume a best case scenario, 30m radius, low density of 1000kg/m³, an impact speed of 12km/s and 30% burnup in the atmosphere the kinetic energy on impact will be about 5.75 Petajoule or 1.37MT of TNT


Still a hell of a lot more than 30 times Hiroshima.
At least the energy released, not the destruction. Destruction doesn't scale linearly, common misconception

This is one of the things that we need to be vigilant of. Some sort of collective sentinel plan or soomething should be created to monitor NEOs and other associated bodies.

Although this was an asteroid, we all remember the meteors which hit Chelyabinsk; unannounced and a complete surprise.


EDIT: On a related but tongue-in-cheek note, I'm more concerned with some ELE-body smashing into Proxima Centauri b. If a killer asteroid hits nearby Proxima Centauri b, we'll never get to explore our nearby neighbour... (Forget Gliese, there's the Alpha Centauri and Proxima Centauri systems)

originally posted by: Village Idiot
Wow.... at just over 86,000 Km per hour I would venture to say if that thing came anywhere near ground before exploding.... Tunguska?

And what's worse is we did not know about it until it whizzed by...