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originally posted by: spiritualarchitect
[place perv videos here]
With recent polls showing Biden in the lead over the other 23 declared Democrat candidates, many officials within the Trump campaign are looking at the former VP as their main opponent going into the election Opens a New Window. . Chris Wilson, former pollster for the Ted Cruz Campaign, and CEO of WPA Intelligence warned that polling is important but rallies and traveling to voters is the key to winning.
originally posted by: DanDanDat
Trumps issues are that he is taking many unorthodox and/or counterintuitive positions. To be fair to him for the sake of this conversation it's irrelevant if in the long term his positions are good or bad; in the short term they make people in the center uneasy because they are controversial. It was a good position for him to be in when he was the underdog and wasn't supposed to win. Being controversial pushed him up to eventually winning by the skin of his teeth.
Now that the shoe is on the other foot being controversial is pushing people in the center away one by one. He can't afford to lose to many voters.
Biden has set himself up as the opposite of Trump and is trying very hard not to be controversial about anything. He needs to pick up every center voter Trump losses if he hopes to win. The question for him is whether or not he can hold onto his non controversial position during the primary; his compatriots are not going to make that easy for him.
A survey from the Princeton Election Consortium has found that Hillary Clinton has a 99 per cent chance of winning the election over Donald Trump. Three days before the election, Ms Clinton has a projected 312 electoral votes, compared to 226 for Mr Trump. A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to win. The probability statistic was found by the university’s statistical Bayesian model.
The developer of the model, neuro and data scientist Princeton professor Sam Wang, correctly predicted 49 out of 50 states in 2012.
As for Democrats taking back control of a Republican-led senate, the Princeton Election Consortium projected a 78 per cent likelihood, while FiverThirtyEight and the New York Times both estimated a 55 per cent chance.
originally posted by: schuyler