Solar Cycle 25 Prediction.

The first prediction for Solar Cycle 25 is out. The panel expects that the next cycle will be similar to 24, the current cycle, which is expected to end at the end of this year. They did a pretty good job with the predictions for 24. While the prediction for 25 is for below average activity the fact that it is for greater activity than observed in the previous maximum it indicates that the gradual decline seen over the past few cycles may be at an end.

“We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak cycle, preceded by a long, deep minimum,” said panel co-chair Lisa Upton, Ph.D., solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp. “The expectation that Cycle 25 will be comparable in size to Cycle 24 means that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21-24, has come to an end and that there is no indication that we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.”

www.weather.gov...

It should be noted that the prediction relies to a certain extent upon the actual Solar minimum, since we have not yet reached it, this prediction could well change. Recall that the first prediction for Cycle 24 was that it would be more active than average.

a reply to: Phage

Was there fear among these solar predictors that we could be approaching a Maunder-type minimum? It kinda sounds that way.

“The expectation that Cycle 25 will be comparable in size to Cycle 24 means that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21-24, has come to an end and that there is no indication that we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.”

Shouldn't this be in the predictions forum

a reply to: LookingAtMars

There was such a prediction, made by three mathematicians in 2014, yes.

When it comes to Solar science, I'll pay more attention to Solar scientists. But the "fear" wasn't based on much science either.

a reply to: Phage

Sounds like you don't put much faith in the 3 wise men. Were they just basic mathematicians and not related to the field of Solar science.

Wow, this prediction seems earlier than usual. I would expect to get a prediction a year or two from now.

a reply to: LookingAtMars
One computer scientist, another with a good body of work involving solar physics, another with some solar physics.

a reply to: rickymouse

Wow, this prediction seems earlier than usual.

Not really. The first prediction for Cycle 24 was made in April of 2007, a year before the predicted minimum.
Cycle 24

As I said though, that prediction changed after Solar minimum had actually been reached.

I remember back in cycle 24 when there were predictions being made, and it was laughed off as junk science by many. Really goes to show how up and coming fields of science are often scorned.

This time, unlike the past, humanity has solution. Natural gas heating is available now. Next little ice age won't be too much of a problem unlike in the past.

a reply to: Phage
That's interesting but I read the link and unfortunately it offers zero insight into how they go about determining this:

“The expectation that Cycle 25 will be comparable in size to Cycle 24 means that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21-24, has come to an end...

Hopefully there is some science behind such statements, but if they were wrong about the prediction for cycle 24 then it seems reasonable to question the science used, which didn't seem to work too well for the last cycle.

As for the maunder minimum, some sources say we are soon due for another ice age much colder than the maunder minimum, except that the high CO2 levels will likely prevent that from happening anytime soon. In fact we probably overcompensated, not that we are adding CO2 to intentionally prevent an ice age.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

I imagine the panel members use various models for the evolution of the Sun's magnetic field, primarily. Those models seem to be evolving, they hope to provide details which they haven't previously.

For Solar Cycle 25, the panel hopes for the first time to predict the presence, amplitude, and timing of any differences between the northern and southern hemispheres on the Sun, known as Hemispheric Asymmetry. Later this year, the Panel will release an official Sunspot Number curve which shows the predicted number of sunspots during any given year and any expected asymmetry. The panel will also look into the possibility of providing a Solar Flare Probability Forecast.

That last sentence is intriguing. NOAA currently provides 3 day flare probabilities. I wonder what they are talking about.


While the Maunder Minimum did occur during the "Little Ice Age", there isn't much evidence that the minimum was the cause. Vulcanism seems to be the prime suspect for that cooling event. Perhaps, though, if we do enter another Grand Minimum, it would slow the warming a bit.

As far as the next actual glacial period goes, estimates are generally in the neighborhood of 25,000 years or so, based on the Milankovich cycles and no anthropogenic CO2. What we're doing is pushing that number way, way back.