Atlanta Fed Estimated GDP growth for Q1 - 0.3%

a reply to: toysforadults

I think you ought to provide an update. Who am I kidding you wouldn't do that.

So here we are, weeks later and suddenly the Atlanta fed, who you were super stoked had the economy tanking and barely growing at all, now shows GDP growth for Q1 at 2.8%. OOPS. link

Just as I predicted. It would wildly readjust. Now, it appears to have overshot a little (imo) but I think we come in between 2 and 2.5 or very near there. Mind you, this is with one of the coldest january/february's in quite some time, which always depresses economic growth a little. We could be in for one heck of a summer. Should be fun!

U.S. Housing Starts Fall to Near 2-Year Low “Waiting for construction activity to pick up after a sharp drop in mortgage rates is like waiting for Godot."

www.cfo.com...

This may be a set up for a reported rise in home starts later this year.
The effect is tighter existing sales environment with rent index numbers rising which factors into inflation.

it's all gamesmanship between Fed, Powell, Trump... all are putting out cherry picked data analysis to support their agenda...

Trump vs Fed --- >> & Powell is the fence sitter

the Fed most likely will squirm like a dog with Its tail between the legs, after trying to keep QT & rate increases despite the economic slowdown the Atlanta Fed is trying to signal that the Trump Rally is Done Gone/expired/RIPed

a reply to: St Udio

Some Fed watchers are again predicting rates might need to be raised before the November 2020 election.
The early rate hikes in 2018 actually delayed the economic peak and inevitable subsequent recession for the US.
Without the early intervention, the 2019 economic numbers would have sky rocketed and forced massive intervention by the Fed in late 2020 causing a deeper negative reaction in the markets near the election.

Fed is supposed to stay politically neutral.
IMHO the Republicans are going to have a strong US economy on their side for the election.

We aren't immune from a global meltdown in world trade though, and tariffs only help internationally when there is strong demand that cannot be diverted.

a reply to: Slichter

Look at gas prices

Inflation is here

a reply to: toysforadults

Gasoline prices are cyclical, check out the open interest on this chart.
Might have a peak of $67 - $70 a barrel for oil before it sells off again.


futures.tradingcharts.com...

a reply to: toysforadults

11 years ago the price of gas was right around $4 a gallon. Today it is $2.88. That's some weird inflation you've got going on there.

a reply to: Slichter

Brent is already at $74. WTI is at $66. Are you calling top now
finviz.com...

a reply to: Dfairlite

Right after I posted yesterday my news feed tossed a story about Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz.

The Nymex (pit) price for June delivery is still below $70 today.

Wasn't really expecting $80 a barrel by next Friday much less...

futures.tradingcharts.com...

a reply to: Slichter

SURPRISE

That's the the common theme until Oct

a reply to: toysforadults

Surprise Q1 GDP comes in at a whopping 3.2%
LINK

How's that recession coming along?

Also hilarious, the government shutdown likely boosted GDP growth.

I'm not surprised at all.

But I'll bet liberals sure are. Every stupid story their media comes up with they have to defend until they get egg on their faces.

I wonder when they'll tire of being losers.