Trump Could lose 2020

This is something that I think could be interesting to discuss before the full campaign cycle really kicks off. I have noticed not just on ATS but just online in general that there is this idea that Trump will win 2020. Its talked about by some of his supporters as if it’s an inevitability, not only that but that he will have some kind of massive majority.

Now while I would never go as far to say that he doesn’t stand a chance and will never serve a second term, I am also not in the camp that says he is definitely going to win. I think anyone making such predictions is really just asking to wind up with egg on their face. So, while I do not intend to present any predictions about what will happen, I do also think it’s a good time to point out several indicators that seem to suggest at this early stage that Trump winning could be less likely than some of his supporters like to pretend.

The primary issue really is with Trumps overall popularity, I have written before on ATS about how unpopular Trump is and he remains an unpopular president. His collective approval rating remains below 50%, currently at 40%, and again, he is the first president in modern times whose approval rating has almost never been above 50%. A staggering statistic to look at. Now while the mid-terms might not have been quite as big of a defeat as expected it was still a defeat, he lost the house. Other indicators have reported that he also lost some support among his core supporters over the recent government shut down and with another potentially looming this impact come election day has the potential to grow.

Then we also need to look at voter demographics. I personally believe that the Dems back in 2016 feel victim to their own hubris, they believed that they didn’t need to do all that much because there was no way that Trump would win, this despite polls showing the two candidates almost neck and neck before election day. They simply went in with an arrogant belief that they didn’t need to do much to win over voters, they didn’t need any big sexy promises. At times the democrats seemed to be almost sitting back and had the attitude that if he says enough stupid stuff, they won’t need to do anything. There must have been an element of the electorate who just didn’t bother voting because there was no way that Clinton would lose anyway…. oh, how every wrong they were. I think that this has been a lesson learned and you can bet that the Dems are going to come out firing as election day draws closer and voter turnout, I would think would be much higher than 55%. Remember Trump lost the popular vote by the biggest margin in history while still winning the presidency.

There are probably other points I could get into but my only point with this thread is just to highlight to Trump’s supporters that while you may very well want him to win a second term, while you might believe it could happen, it’s not something that can be thought of as being an inevitability. Quite often the language that I hear around 2020 makes it sound like a win is already in the bag and that is almost what I think happened with the Clinton supporters back in 2016.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

I think he will win again.
He is an idiot that panders to a base of bigger idiots and they swallow it whole.

They said he couldn't win the first time either.
Trump is still a better choice than any of the Dems.

I think that if he cools his jets on the immigration issue then he has a serious chance. If he is still holding families and ranting about walls drugs and such then he will loose hugely.

I think he is 90% popular but the 10% drags him down much.

Also i hear he has about 4 months left in office so who knows.

a reply to: UncleTomahawk

I think he is 90% popular but the 10% drags him down much.

You might think that but when you look at the best indicators of presidential popularity he has a 40% approval rating.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

You still haven't figured it out yet, have you?

Enjoy 6 more years, i know i will.

originally posted by: PurpleFox
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

You still haven't figured it out yet, have you?

Enjoy 6 more years, i know i will.

You see this is exactly the kind of thing I am talking about in the OP.

You might very well believe that he will win but that does not mean he will win, there is nothing to say that he already has his second term in the bag. Indeed when you look at a lot of the indicators right now they all seem to be indicating that he might struggle to secure his second term.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

If the Democrats want to win they cant base their campaign on "trump sucks".

Trump campaigned by telling Americans what he wanted to do for them. It worked.

Hillary didnt even have a concession speech ready because they didnt believe they could lose.
She failed in the swing states.

If Americans in those swing states feel that America is better than it was four years ago trump will win again in 2020.

This next election will surely be one of the most interesting by far. I certainly hope the socialist democrats do not get anywhere near Trump. However, there are a lot of young (18-24) morons who blindly follow the democrats because "they say words we know and like". What is critical thinking anyways, right?? I have a feeling that if Trump loses, he surely will be the last president the US will ever see.

His rally in Texas last night was a success and looked fun.

originally posted by: TinySickTears
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

I think he will win again.
He is an idiot that panders to a base of bigger idiots and they swallow it whole.

Perfect example of why trump won.
You call people that disagree with you politically idiots.
Enjoy the next 6 years with that attitude.

a reply to: Bluntone22

If the Democrats want to win they cant base their campaign on "trump sucks".

Agreed, like I said in the OP I think that was their biggest mistake in the 2016 election and I think that this time they are going to learn from that mistake.

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

You have another balloon ready?

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

except his approval is 52% after tge SOTU

a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

I think that this time they are going to learn from that mistake.

why?
You base this on ?

They are still attempting to unseat him.
They haven't learned anything.

originally posted by: Bluntone22

originally posted by: TinySickTears
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

I think he will win again.
He is an idiot that panders to a base of bigger idiots and they swallow it whole.

Perfect example of why trump won.
You call people that disagree with you politically idiots.
Enjoy the next 6 years with that attitude.

Not correct
I call idiots idiots.

There are more than 2 political parties.
He is one pandering to many.
It will be looked at as one of the greatest cons of all time.

originally posted by: TinySickTears
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

I think he will win again.
He is an idiot that panders to a base of bigger idiots and they swallow it whole.

I can only imagine what you've swallowed whole.

originally posted by: BlueJacket
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

except his approval is 52% after tge SOTU

No its not its 52% according to, rasmussen Reports its 52% but they don't have a reputation as being impartial and accurate pollsters, they have a politically right bias and consistently give Trump higher numbers than other pollsters and despite this struggle to keep him above 50% approval. According to their own index history Trump has barley ever been above 50%. When you look at the polling data collectively right now he is at 40%.

originally posted by: TinySickTears
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

I think he will win again.
He is an idiot that panders to a base of bigger idiots and they swallow it whole.

Do you call Trump supporters you meet in person idiots? People at work who like him Do you call them idiots?

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: BlueJacket
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

except his approval is 52% after tge SOTU

No its not its 52% according to, rasmussen Reports its 52% but they don't have a reputation as being impartial and accurate pollsters, they have a politically right bias and consistently give Trump higher numbers than other pollsters and despite this struggle to keep him above 50% approval. According to their own index history Trump has barley ever been above 50%. When you look at the polling data collectively right now he is at 40%.

So , do you have any other US polls you go by ?
Folks from all US demographics seem to think that Rasmussen done an excellent job with Barry's numbers.

originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin

originally posted by: BlueJacket
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

except his approval is 52% after tge SOTU

No its not its 52% according to, rasmussen Reports its 52% but they don't have a reputation as being impartial and accurate pollsters, they have a politically right bias and consistently give Trump higher numbers than other pollsters and despite this struggle to keep him above 50% approval. According to their own index history Trump has barley ever been above 50%. When you look at the polling data collectively right now he is at 40%.

Wow look at how fast you debunk a "right leaning poll" but offer the left wing polls as proof .

Which one was more accurate in 2016? Just curious