Treasury Yield Plumbs 10-Month Low

So December and 2018 in general have been a tough market for traders.

Bloomberg

The 10-year yield fell as low as 2.68 percent Monday, a level last seen in the teeth of February’s volatility spike. The benchmark rate has been on a sliding trend for most of the fourth quarter, spurred by an equity-market sell-off that at one point left the S&P 500 index almost 20 percent below its record.

Investopedia

An inverted yield curve is an interest rate environment in which long-term debt instruments have a lower yield than short-term debt instruments of the same credit quality. This type of yield curve is the rarest of the three main curve types and is considered to be a predictor of economic recession.

Could be nothing but the market reacting to the Fed. However, oddly enough...

Marketwatch

Beleaguered investors may want to thank pension funds for the stock market’s biggest daily jump in nine years last Wednesday, which helped set the stage for Wall Street’s first weekly gain in an otherwise gloomy December.

The yield curve second inversion of the year comes on the heels of a nearly bear market DOW plunge and official bear market (although temporarily) for the other index. Another oddity I've noticed is the rise in prices in silver and gold even on the heels of an interest rate hike. So apparently some investor's are putting their money into a safe space.

Can't blame them with this kind of volatility and big banks saving the market's from a plunge it seems as if 2019 will be a fun year.

a reply to: toysforadults

Yeah,

I will hold in bonds until the final crash into the teens or the market steadily climbs past 25,000 again.

Better to make almost nothing than take a 40% loss.

a reply to: infolurker

lot of options traders got crushed this week, almost every group I'm in got their asses handed to them by the $64 billion pension fund move

I was betting on put options on FAANG stocks until the plunge protection team jumped into the market. not a safe market to be betting in

www.history.com...

During the 1920s, the U.S. stock market underwent rapid expansion, reaching its peak in August 1929, after a period of wild speculation. By then, production had already declined and unemployment had risen, leaving stocks in great excess of their real value. Among the other causes of the eventual market collapse were low wages, the proliferation of debt, a struggling agricultural sector and an excess of large bank loans that could not be liquidated.

lot of smaller investor's pulling out of the market, when I saw silver and gold increase in price after the Fed's rate hike I knew something weird was up

Stock prices began to decline in September and early October 1929, and on October 18 the fall began. Panic set in, and on October 24, Black Thursday, a record 12,894,650 shares were traded. Investment companies and leading bankers attempted to stabilize the market by buying up great blocks of stock, producing a moderate rally on Friday.

a reply to: toysforadults

A carpenter living paycheck to paycheck, studying something in community college giving us a heads up on stock market machinations with an ‘insider’ bit on FAANG equities...I’ll pass...be better off shooting dice or running numbers.


ETA: Global Markets plumb? I thought that was carpenter parlance. It’s plummet(ing), Carl Icahn.

Keep your day job and enroll in an accredited business school or stop parroting talking points and unsolicited ‘investment tips’.

a reply to: Cravens

I don't go to community college

Also, do you have anything to add or just another person with nothing to say?

Let me know when you actually have something of value to add. Also in case you actually haven't read anything.. I never claimed insider knowledge of anything.

I'm playing with options trading for fun.

originally posted by: Cravens
a reply to: toysforadults

A carpenter living paycheck to paycheck, studying something in community college giving us a heads up on stock market machinations with an ‘insider’ bit on FAANG equities...I’ll pass...be better off shooting dice or running numbers.

SNIP

ETA: Global Markets plumb? I thought that was carpenter parlance. It’s plummet(ing), Carl Icahn.

Keep your day job and enroll in an accredited business school or stop parroting talking points and unsolicited ‘investment tips’. SNIP

I'm interested in reading the very few members who unlike you actually have something to say on this topic because I enjoy reading their point of view.

I'm not giving you advice. Its a hobby I like to learn about and play with and me being a carpenter has nothing to do with anything.

You are just another hater who cant handle the heat of being called out on your vs

Join my fan club. They probably need more donations.

a reply to: toysforadults

Yes. I helluva more than you can add.

Yield inversion is a metric from the 3-month to the 10/30 year. 10-month T-bill?? Lol.

SNIPPED

a reply to: Cravens

See you are so busy hating me that you didn't even realize the title of the thread is directly from the title of the Bloomberg article.

How the yield curve inversion and t-bills works is something I began learning about a few months ago..

Oh while I attend an accredited university for my STEM degree. What do you know though huh?

originally posted by: toysforadults

originally posted by: Cravens
a reply to: toysforadults

A carpenter living paycheck to paycheck, studying something in community college giving us a heads up on stock market machinations with an ‘insider’ bit on FAANG equities...I’ll pass...be better off shooting dice or running numbers.

Hack.

ETA: Global Markets plumb? I thought that was carpenter parlance. It’s plummet(ing), Carl Icahn.

Keep your day job and enroll in an accredited business school or stop parroting talking points and unsolicited ‘investment tips’. HACK.

I'm interested in reading the very few members who unlike you actually have something to say on this topic because I enjoy reading their point of view.

I'm not giving you advice. Its a hobby I like to learn about and play with and me being a carpenter has nothing to do with anything.

You are just another hater who cant handle the heat of being called out on your vs

Join my fan club. They probably need more donations.

Many moons ago I was a commodities broker. I'd also been interested in them for years before that.

It's still early enough to take advantage of the economy being held up with artificially low interest rate during the Obama years. Hard commodities will do well as the cash market retracts.

I'm more inclined to invest in the low end commodities. You hear about gold all the time and I haven't looked at the silver market lately, but I'm betting it's a good buy right now and will be less volatile than gold as it increases in price over the next couple years.

a reply to: toysforadults

The regulators/gov may not want to let the stock market tank because of their reliance on tax revenue that is dependent on the market staying where it is or moving higher. Jason Burack from Wall St for Main St has been talking about this for awhile again.

I have been thinking it would be a good time to short the market multiple times in the past few years and everytime it seems to just rally, glad I wasn't too trigger happy.

If you see institutional money moving into utility stocks, that could be a sign that things are about to drop more significantly.

I'm bullish on precious metals and oil right now, and currently have a few random positions in natural gas, PMs, and a concrete corp.

a reply to: Ksihkehe

I agree with both of you silver has been in a great buying position and gold has been on the rise recently

a reply to: toysforadults


PM"S besides stocking up on commodities are the only life boat.People seem to be getting onboard.

a reply to: anonentity

PM'S?

not familiar with this

a reply to: toysforadults



Precious metals...Gold Silver primarily.

a reply to: anonentity
oh of course haha yeah for sure