Ballot requests and returns by the numbers

So this guy on Twitter has a very interesting take on what's happening in the mid-terms.

It's a long thread that is available here: threadreaderapp.com...

His original Twitter account is also here: twitter.com...

Essentially, he says:

Just so you all understand what I do, for the one-millionth time, I don't do polls....

I examine ballot REQUESTS and ballot RETURNS BY PARTY. (In 2016, party ID was the single best predictor of a vote according to Pew---very, very few party switchers, but those that were, by 2:1, went from Dem to Republican.

But then you need to compare the current numbers to something. The rule of thumb is you never compare a mid-term with a presidential election because the turnout for the latter is supposed to be so much higher.

Guess what I did?

I compared it anyway, just out of intuition.

The punch line is he is seeing R ballot requests/returns outperforming the 2016 Presidential race, which supposedly never happens because voter turnout is lower at mid-terms. D ballot requests/returns have declined, when compared to both 2016 and the 2014 mid-terms.

And this was exactly how I knew Trump would win very early in the 2016 election.
The VOTES were talking.

Anyway, worth the read if you want to see what races he analyzed.

Interesting stuff.

Miss C had access to that info. That is why Miss C disappeared for what, like 6 months out of the public eye. Miss C knew she wasn't going to win. Just my 2 cents.

a reply to: loam

I think it would be absolutely wonderful if the normal change over of the congress and the senate does not happen this mid-term.. Then maybe the people like Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, Elizabeth Warren, Barbara Boxer, Hillary Clinton, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, Maxine Waters, and Al Sharpton will get the message that jobs not mobs really does mean something and America is not ready for their vision of a corrupt (no rule of law) governmental socialist future...

Interesting...

It strikes me that one reason for the abnormally high Republican turnout in absentee voting could easily be attributed to another issue: violence over political discourse. I know if I were not in a solidly conservative district, I would be concerned about going to the polls. If that is a reason, then those numbers also show that Republicans are concerned about more than just the Kavanaugh hearings... they are concerned about the political violence that has overtaken significant portions of the Democratic party. That could bring out large numbers of Republican voters and cause the red wave we have started hearing about.

I wonder just how much violence we will see come November 6th... just how much like a third-world dictatorship America will resemble as polls are overtaken by mobs? And I wonder just how many polls will have to be thrown out because groups like ANTIFA have used violence to again try and destroy our political process?

TheRedneck

I'm not getting my hopes up.

Republicans been leading behind for awhile.

Democrats had the midterms in the bag until they blew it. Somewhat.

Still saying the House goes blue. Senate goes red.

I want D's to lose in a few weeks, considering the platform ( I'm not talking about the snip they've been pulling).

Gun Control, Impeach Trump,Impeach Kavanaugh.

Even if Republicans lose the House. Keep and pick up a couple of seats in the Senate.

We still WIN.

a reply to: neo96

It's all tea leaf reading. So who knows?

I'll be glad when it's over.

a reply to: loam

We're really screwed if D's get a blue wave.

Best possible outcome is a split congress.

a reply to: neo96

I don't think the blue wave exists.

I do think a due process and anti-mob wave exists. That may very well be the BIG story when it's all over.

a reply to: loam

I do think a due process and anti-mob wave exists.

Operation Choke Point is back in the news.

townhall.com...

a reply to: neo96

www.realclearpolitics.com... not if we keep picking up minority votes for republicans we have about a 1/3rd of latino vote and asian vote traditionally, and if we get what this article talks about 20% of the african american vote dems are pretty much boned

With continually diminishing white support, Democrats must increasingly count on massive minority turnout and bloc voting -- especially among African-American voters, who make up about 12 percent of electorate. Roughly a third of Asians and Latinos vote Republican, and voter turnout among these groups generally isn't as strong as it is among whites and African-Americans. But why is the supposedly odious Trump having any success in undermining the traditional marriage between African-Americans and Democrats? The most recent jobs report revealed that the unemployment rate for African-American teenagers fell to 19.3 percent, the lowest figure on record. That number stands in marked contrast to the 2010 rate of 48.9 percent under the Obama administration. Overall black unemployment is currently at 5.9 percent, which is close to a record low. Under Trump, the economy is growing at nearly 4 percent per year. The robust growth coincides with Trump's effort to curb illegal immigration and imported labor. The net result has been to empower minority job applicants in ways not seen in nearly half a century. Trump's implicit message is that every American worker is now crucial in maintaining the red-hot economy. In a job-short economy, laborers suddenly have a lot of leverage over their employers. And wages are rising. Trump's nationalist message adds to this sense of empowerment, especially when he campaigns on putting Americans first in his economic decision-making. A former entertainer, Trump is courting African-American celebrities such as rapper Kayne West and football legend Jim Brown. Activist Candace Owens and her Turning Point USA organization are trying to convince black voters that being politically independent forces both parties to compete for the African-American vote. Ironically, Trump is reaching out to the African-American community to a much greater degree than progressives are reaching out to the estranged white working class.

Rush limbaugh for what its worth is also saying we now have a shot at the house as well www.foxnews.com...

a reply to: RalagaNarHallas

I'm not holding my breathe.

Between voter fraud, and people aren't even going to vote.

Read those articles.

I'd like to keep the House and Senate as they are.

If a red wave materializes.

Great.

If not at least keeping the Senate.

a reply to: loam

So.....he's counting "ballot requests" and "ballot returns"? Is that absentee ballot requests? I guess so but its confusing.

I'm not sure that an increase in the overall numbers means much of anything year over year. Every day another few thousand Boomers slip off into retirement and many are moving to remote rural areas to escape the crime and pollution of the awful city scapes. I'd guess that means that year over year going forward, there will be an ever increasing number of request for mail-in ballots. Which........when you think about it is pretty stupid because the mail-in ballots are by far and the way the most likely way to vote that can be hacked or just plain thrown out.

a reply to: neo96

oh we got the senate locked probably gonna pick up 4-5 seats but still be shy of a super majority .

we MAY hold the house but not likely we will pick up any seats ,polls change daily but its been slowly shifting red in a lot of areas that surprised at least me

www.realclearpolitics.com... if montana goes red the dems are done in the senate ND is gonan go red for sure at this point, as long as heller in NV does well and we do good in AZ its not even a risk in senate

now on house www.realclearpolitics.com... its alot less clear with 30 toss ups alone but still not a forlorn conclusion that we will be routed there

originally posted by: neo96
a reply to: RalagaNarHallas

I'm not holding my breathe.

Between voter fraud, and people aren't even going to vote.

Read those articles.

I'd like to keep the House and Senate as they are.

If a red wave materializes.

Great.

If not at least keeping the Senate.

Just my 2 cents, but with all the vitriol, hatred and passion on the leftist side of the equation, I'd expect this election cycle to be worst we've seen in terms of voter fraud. Then again........if the Dems take both the House and the Senate, this could be then next to last truly "free and fair" election.

Thanks for the info.

S&F

It strikes me that one reason for the abnormally high Republican turnout in absentee voting could easily be attributed to another issue: violence over political discourse. I know if I were not in a solidly conservative district, I would be concerned about going to the polls.

Or just LIE.

I mean, once behind the curtain, you can vote how you like. I can think of several times I've "read the room" and simply played along, but then voted my conscience. I suppose others are doing so too.

as long as heller in NV does well

Sadly, NV has become an extension of CA as of late, so you can bet it will go blue.

So far, in early voting, it's the ONLY state (doing early voting) that is leaning blue.

Then again........if the Dems take both the House and the Senate, this could be then next to last truly "free and fair" election.

Luckily, there's likely no chance of them taking the Senate. Very few GOP seats up compared to the number of DEM seats up for grabs, and even long entrenched DEMs face tough GOP challengers in some races. In the end, I think the GOP will actually have a net gain of a couple of seats.

The House is really the scarier one, but hopefully enough folks will not vote for gridlock.

It's a long thread that is available here: threadreaderapp.com...

That is just fascinating. Folks, you gotta read that....

a reply to: Gazrok

Yeah. His feed in general is interesting.