California homes sales crashing... so goes the nation

originally posted by: starwarsisreal
a reply to: MisterSpock

Actually, it only a matter of time before the whole country crashes due to decades of failed policies.

Failed Two Party System is more like it.

The real blow will come when one of the top 10 tech corps announces its relocating outside California. Expect at least 2 or 3 more to follow.

Handing out more needles wont help, taxing who's left more money wont help and flooding the streets with more illegal residents wont help either. California is right on the edge, a good nudge will send it tumbling down a needle and # covered slope.

Thankfully for the good people of California, the stupid USA and all the rural folks will fund its restructuring. Rest assured though, Hollywood will never leave their pedo utopia. So you'll always have that.

a reply to: toysforadults

In my uneducated and naive view think its just a geographical market correction at least for now. I do think there are less home buyers and more people wanting or having to rent for a variety of reasons. But California has been primed for this happening for years, over developing, over building.

a reply to: IgnoranceIsntBlisss

This is a product of the government thinking it needs to save our economy through spending rather than tightening the belt.

They think they can spend us back into a good economy it's just not possible. They need to let the bubbles pop, the to big to fail to fail and let others step into the market place and run it properly.

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: IgnoranceIsntBlisss

I use Amazon as little as possible. Same day delivery. I still have to try on clothes before I buy them due to my build. People don't shop anymore, or see movies, or go to Starbucks because they wallet is tight not because of Amazon.

For some people.

Starbucks has become crap and I can use my little local place cheaper. Movies haven't been worth paying for, not because I couldn't if there were any worth seeing. And I shop plenty when I need to, but how much stuff does a family of three really need?

a reply to: MisterSpock

I've heard Amazon is actually relocating, this is a reason why I've been watching the seattle market.

If Amazon moves out of Seattle you will see the housing inventory massively increase and the Seattle economy fundamentally change.

You guys think the lending and mortgage market and everything is local but it's not it's national.

a reply to: MisterSpock

If they lose Silicon Valley, they're done.

a reply to: ketsuko

That's you. That's not the average American. You have to remember that 45+% of Americans make 17.50 an hour or less.

They aren't going to the movies or shopping.

a reply to: ketsuko

I dont think they will lose them all, but if 30 or 40 percent leave, California is done for. Unless they reverse their trends toward taxpayer spending.

I know that most people in the country wont shed a tear if that happens, and that too is something else California should be worried about.

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: MisterSpock

I've heard Amazon is actually relocating, this is a reason why I've been watching the seattle market.

If Amazon moves out of Seattle you will see the housing inventory massively increase and the Seattle economy fundamentally change.

You guys think the lending and mortgage market and everything is local but it's not it's national.

Seattle will have brought it on themselves.

For those of us who are living where we're at, not much will change. At most, we will lose mobility temporarily while the market readjusts.

But a 30-year fixed (or whatever similar you have) is fixed for a reason.

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: IgnoranceIsntBlisss

I use Amazon as little as possible. Same day delivery. I still have to try on clothes before I buy them due to my build. People don't shop anymore, or see movies, or go to Starbucks because they wallet is tight not because of Amazon.

Working on a house last week, USPS came down the street 3 times two of the days, and 4 times one day. Normally they'd only come once a day with regular mail, but doing Amazon under this ridiculous arrangement they "need" 2-3 extra trips down the street the way they do it 'super efficiently'. It seemed like the same mail man even every time, but I couldnt confirm each time. But they definitely had a proper mail truck every time. Where I'm at a couple towns over most the mailman that shows up everyday usually they make them drive their own cars around here. It should only go that the Amazon stuff is lumped in with the daily mail like everything else, but instead the cushy arrangement they've got them running circles all day in actual mail trucks to completely blow every possible competitor completely out of the stratosphere. Fascism (merger of state + corporate power) at its finest.

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: ketsuko

That's you. That's not the average American. You have to remember that 45+% of Americans make 17.50 an hour or less.

They aren't going to the movies or shopping.

They weren't before then, either. You act like this is a sudden situation, but this is the way it's been since before the last market correction, too.

You also act like there is no mobility in economic status, too.

originally posted by: ketsuko
It's California. No one can afford to live there, so they are all leaving.

What are you talking about people cant afford to live there?


Its California liberal heaven where everyone is equal and more than willing to share their money with others. Those Californians are known to fight for the poor , minorities, women, and the homeless and not only do they have the loudest voices but the deepest pockets as well. Surely they will dig deep into their own pockets to help the poor people that can't afford housing. I'm sure they would be willing to downsize from ONE of their 20k sq foot mcMansions to a measly 10K sq ft home if it helps the needy. Heck they will likely even let them stay with them. Just look at how passionate they are about helping those that cant help themselves.

originally posted by: MisterSpock
a reply to: ketsuko

I dont think they will lose them all, but if 30 or 40 percent leave, California is done for. Unless they reverse their trends toward taxpayer spending.

I know that most people in the country wont shed a tear if that happens, and that too is something else California should be worried about.

No, most people won't. The problem will be what mentality Congress takes. If they follow the "too big to fail" model, then we're all toast. If they're sensible, they might just break Cali down into several different entities instead of leaving it one state to make it easier to get it back on its feet. Sort of like a corporate bankruptcy and restructure.

a reply to: interupt42

Sure, so long as they can vote for the government to force everyone else to do that.

Having lived in California in the 80's and 90's, I was a subcontractor and a real broker. I saw real agents come and go, and finally real estate offices and escrow companies closing. The market went downhill in 90, 91 and 92. I tried everything to stay employed and even went into restaurant management at like 7 bucks and hour.
I ended moving with the family to my wife's country and been here since. No matter where you are, times get real tough and usually stay tough unless you get your money to work for you. Life's not easy at all.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: interupt42

Sure, so long as they can vote for the government to force everyone else to do that and exempt them from it.

Added a crucial part to it.

The current market is not like the market was in 2006-2008. I worked in mortgage finance and lived it.

The market today is far stronger from a mortgage/credit risk standpoint. However, I do think buyers are generally tapped out in regards to prices. The cost of living in some of these areas is just far exceeding what people can reasonably spend on homes.

The other factor is changing attitudes towards home ownership. People generally don't see homeownership the same way. They are having kids later in life. They also see owning a home as a huge anchor taking away flexibility, particularly when jobs and careers are a lot less stable.

Mortgage rates have been rising and people are concerned about property taxes too on top of the already absurd price of homes in some areas.

I do think there will be some weakness in the upper price brackets, but I'm not convinced we will see a similar crash like in 2008.

It's purely economical and common sense.

If you own a house and you have a 2% loan, why would you move and for a 5% loan. Unless there is a divorce or a transfer out of the area people really aren't moving. In other markets, this is creating an almost under supply. This might encouraging savings...

a reply to: Edumakated

No there isn't a subprime crisis forming it's totally different.

The market today is far stronger from a mortgage/credit risk standpoint. However, I do think buyers are generally tapped out in regards to prices. The cost of living in some of these areas is just far exceeding what people can reasonably spend on homes.

For one younger people are strapped with low savings, 20% lower pay than the generation before and student loan debt.

There needs to be a deflationary period but that has an impact market wide as people have their retirements tied up in it and the other list that you are probably more aware of.

They are having kids later in life. They also see owning a home as a huge anchor taking away flexibility, particularly when jobs and careers are a lot less stable.

The reality is owning a home is a burden financially and when housing prices are as high as they are how can I logically think they are going to increase in profit?? With insurances and taxes alone it's sucking up all my equity anyway. I see it happening with the elderly all around me, it's happening to them nationwide. With taxes and hidden taxes and inflation people are getting priced out. I know many of you live in a bubble but you can see it in the data.

Mortgage rates have been rising and people are concerned about property taxes too on top of the already absurd price of homes in some areas.

Exactly.