Monthly Treasury Statement - June adds $75b to deficit

I checked this morning and it wasn't there, so the Monthly Treasury Statement must have just been posted in the last hour or two. June 2018 is not as bad as June 2017 was, but it is still a dangerous trend and I'll explain why.
__________

June 2017 was a $90b deficit, June 2016 was a $6b surplus, June 2015 a $50b surplus and June 2014 a $70b surplus. This is not a good trend, and on closer inspection it started under Obama. Trump's policies and the extra spending only accelerate what has already started.

July and August have traditionally been large deficit months, going back the same four years. With the deficit increasing every month, we can expect the next month to be in the $130-160b range, and August a bit lower at $110-140b. These are my guesses based on the trend we're on. Please check the numbers for the past few years and offer your guess.

September is the last month of the fiscal year for the government, and is traditionally a bit better. It is usually a surplus. In 2017 it was an $8b surplus; in 2016 a $33b surplus, in 2015 a $91b surplus and in 2014 a $106b surplus. With the way the numbers have been moving I would guess September will be a very small loss, perhaps $10-20b deficit.
__________

June's $75b deficit puts 2018 so far at a $607b deficit, with 3 months to go, July, August and September. This is a stark increase over the previous years and shows a dangerous increase in spending that may bring us to a recession sooner than anyone thought. If the numbers I suggested above for our pace are in the vicinity, then we are on pace to finish this year with an $800b to a $900b deficit.

This is an enormous change over the $666b in 2017. If we were to go back further, in 2016 the deficit was $587b, in 2015 we had $439 and in 2014 it was $483b. I realize this is a lot of numbers and I wish I had time to organize it all into a chart for easier viewing.

Now, something that all these numbers don't include are the changes in the trade tariffs. That may improve things or make them exponentially worse and the numbers from the previous years will not be a good indicator of the near future.

What to do with this info? Not much we can do. We need to realize that numbers don't lie and politicians do. We are on a very dangerous trend toward a recession, perhaps as soon as a year or two, while we keep hearing how incredibly awesome things are going. I think we should focus on the numbers and demand lower spending from the government and promises to be kept, instead of being thrown into another recession while we're still recovering from the previous one.


Monthly Treasury Statement June 2018
Previous MTS Simple MtM breakdown going back to the 80s
Previous Full Issues Click on Current Issue above to get to June in Excel/PDF

Thank you all for reading and commenting.

a reply to: Kharron

These decades of overspending are going to bite us in the butt soon.

originally posted by: Bluntone22
a reply to: Kharron

These decades of overspending are going to bite us in the butt soon.

They will, bigly. The truth is our economy is on approximately a 10 year cycle, and we enter a small recession ever so often. If you check all those numbers, whether one likes Obama or not, he dug us out in 2008/2009. He was in office for 8 years and rode out most of that decade before things start going down again. So I'm saying things were naturally starting to go down even under Obama.

The issue is, Trump is doing nothing to make the numbers better and his spending is extreme. He may push what would be a natural recession into a much bigger one, or even a depression. The deficit is accelerating very steeply over the last couple of years.

a reply to: Kharron

I can't wait for the "damn tax cuts" posts, which will completely ignore that the tax cuts only marginally raised the deficit. It was already #ing huge. And it's yet to be seen if the "cost" of the tax cuts will be offset by economic growth. CBO said that wouldn't happen, but they only projected 1.8% growth and it's going to be well over that. More growth equals more tax revenue.

originally posted by: Kharron

originally posted by: Bluntone22
a reply to: Kharron

These decades of overspending are going to bite us in the butt soon.

They will, bigly. The truth is our economy is on approximately a 10 year cycle, and we enter a small recession ever so often. If you check all those numbers, whether one likes Obama or not, he dug us out in 2008/2009. He was in office for 8 years and rode out most of that decade before things start going down again. So I'm saying things were naturally starting to go down even under Obama.

The issue is, Trump is doing nothing to make the numbers better and his spending is extreme. He may push what would be a natural recession into a much bigger one, or even a depression. The deficit is accelerating very steeply over the last couple of years.

I'm not sure I'd credit Obama with "digging us out". We climb out of recessions no matter who is president. And let's not forget, Congress sets spending levels, not the President. Trump swore he'd veto another spending bill like they sent him last time. If he doesn't follow through on that threat, then we can start blaming him (partially) for the deficits.

originally posted by: face23785
a reply to: Kharron

I can't wait for the "damn tax cuts" posts, which will completely ignore that the tax cuts only marginally raised the deficit. It was already #ing huge. And it's yet to be seen if the "cost" of the tax cuts will be offset by economic growth. CBO said that wouldn't happen, but they only projected 1.8% growth and it's going to be well over that. More growth equals more tax revenue.

More growth, less taxes, we'll see how it plays out.

The tariffs and their impact are largely guesses at this point also and that will affect the numbers for next year mostly, however it may have some effect on the last couple of fiscal months of this year too.

If this year ends with $800b or larger deficit, we can't pretend any more or many will suffer... again.

originally posted by: Kharron

originally posted by: face23785
a reply to: Kharron

I can't wait for the "damn tax cuts" posts, which will completely ignore that the tax cuts only marginally raised the deficit. It was already #ing huge. And it's yet to be seen if the "cost" of the tax cuts will be offset by economic growth. CBO said that wouldn't happen, but they only projected 1.8% growth and it's going to be well over that. More growth equals more tax revenue.

More growth, less taxes, we'll see how it plays out.

The tariffs and their impact are largely guesses at this point also and that will affect the numbers for next year mostly, however it may have some effect on the last couple of fiscal months of this year too.

If this year ends with $800b or larger deficit, we can't pretend any more or many will suffer... again.

I really don't expect this to turn into a full-blown trade war. Most of the countries we're dicking with simply can't afford to get into a trade fight with us. They don't want to cave too easily, but eventually most of them are going to give in. We won't get completely balanced trade, but we'll make some gains. That will give us even more revenue.

originally posted by: face23785

originally posted by: Kharron

originally posted by: face23785
a reply to: Kharron

I can't wait for the "damn tax cuts" posts, which will completely ignore that the tax cuts only marginally raised the deficit. It was already #ing huge. And it's yet to be seen if the "cost" of the tax cuts will be offset by economic growth. CBO said that wouldn't happen, but they only projected 1.8% growth and it's going to be well over that. More growth equals more tax revenue.

More growth, less taxes, we'll see how it plays out.

The tariffs and their impact are largely guesses at this point also and that will affect the numbers for next year mostly, however it may have some effect on the last couple of fiscal months of this year too.

If this year ends with $800b or larger deficit, we can't pretend any more or many will suffer... again.

I really don't expect this to turn into a full-blown trade war. Most of the countries we're dicking with simply can't afford to get into a trade fight with us. They don't want to cave too easily, but eventually most of them are going to give in. We won't get completely balanced trade, but we'll make some gains. That will give us even more revenue.

In an ideal world, where everything goes well and everyone caves and we win, that would happen. We can hope, right? If, in October, when we get the numbers for the whole year, we see that the deficit has increased to $800-900b, a 40-50% increase over the previous year and a 100% increase over a couple of years ago... then we can safely stop hoping for the best and start acting on preventing it.

I think we should demand changes now, but I think it will take the shell shock of the October report until some start realizing what's happening.

originally posted by: Kharron

originally posted by: face23785

originally posted by: Kharron

originally posted by: face23785
a reply to: Kharron

I can't wait for the "damn tax cuts" posts, which will completely ignore that the tax cuts only marginally raised the deficit. It was already #ing huge. And it's yet to be seen if the "cost" of the tax cuts will be offset by economic growth. CBO said that wouldn't happen, but they only projected 1.8% growth and it's going to be well over that. More growth equals more tax revenue.

More growth, less taxes, we'll see how it plays out.

The tariffs and their impact are largely guesses at this point also and that will affect the numbers for next year mostly, however it may have some effect on the last couple of fiscal months of this year too.

If this year ends with $800b or larger deficit, we can't pretend any more or many will suffer... again.

I really don't expect this to turn into a full-blown trade war. Most of the countries we're dicking with simply can't afford to get into a trade fight with us. They don't want to cave too easily, but eventually most of them are going to give in. We won't get completely balanced trade, but we'll make some gains. That will give us even more revenue.

In an ideal world, where everything goes well and everyone caves and we win, that would happen. We can hope, right? If, in October, when we get the numbers for the whole year, we see that the deficit has increased to $800-900b, a 40-50% increase over the previous year and a 100% increase over a couple of years ago... then we can safely stop hoping for the best and start acting on preventing it.

I think we should demand changes now, but I think it will take the shell shock of the October report until some start realizing what's happening.

I'm not sure it will be much of a shellshock, will it? Everyone knew the deficit this year was going to be in the high hundreds of billions. It's projected to be up above a trillion in the next few years. Obviously that's unsustainable. The interest on the debt is already something like 7% of our annual budget, and it's only getting bigger. It's projected to pass defense spending by like 2028, give or take a year or two depending on who's doing the projection. I definitely agree we need to get our spending under control. We need to make some hard choices with restructuring domestic programs. Everyone just wants to cut military spending like that will fix everything, but one of the things I explain here is that military spending is not the main thing driving our deficits, and there's only so much we can cut it realistically. Even if you cut military spending to zero, we're still running a deficit. We must cut domestic spending somewhere.

Coming from an accountant...until those numbers recieve an annual audit, im just assuming its all made up.

Major cuts need to happen across the board if we were to attempt to fix our deficit.

Here is a list of things I think would help.

Reduce our military footprint, "protecting" the whole world isn't sustainable.
Remove all Corporate welfare. If they can't make it as a business without a government handout they don't deserve to be in business.
Major cuts to foreign aid and social services.
Stop the War on Terrorism and just defend our country with strict immigration laws.

The rampant illegal immigration also hurts our economy more than most want to admit. It suppresses wages, which ties into how much the federal gov pulls in on taxes. It also burdens the system by detaining them, court processes, social services programs, etc.

There are so many other things that need to be fixed I'd be here all day listing them but in my opinion, those are the big-ticket items.

originally posted by: face23785

originally posted by: Kharron

originally posted by: face23785

originally posted by: Kharron

originally posted by: face23785
a reply to: Kharron

I can't wait for the "damn tax cuts" posts, which will completely ignore that the tax cuts only marginally raised the deficit. It was already #ing huge. And it's yet to be seen if the "cost" of the tax cuts will be offset by economic growth. CBO said that wouldn't happen, but they only projected 1.8% growth and it's going to be well over that. More growth equals more tax revenue.

More growth, less taxes, we'll see how it plays out.

The tariffs and their impact are largely guesses at this point also and that will affect the numbers for next year mostly, however it may have some effect on the last couple of fiscal months of this year too.

If this year ends with $800b or larger deficit, we can't pretend any more or many will suffer... again.

I really don't expect this to turn into a full-blown trade war. Most of the countries we're dicking with simply can't afford to get into a trade fight with us. They don't want to cave too easily, but eventually most of them are going to give in. We won't get completely balanced trade, but we'll make some gains. That will give us even more revenue.

In an ideal world, where everything goes well and everyone caves and we win, that would happen. We can hope, right? If, in October, when we get the numbers for the whole year, we see that the deficit has increased to $800-900b, a 40-50% increase over the previous year and a 100% increase over a couple of years ago... then we can safely stop hoping for the best and start acting on preventing it.

I think we should demand changes now, but I think it will take the shell shock of the October report until some start realizing what's happening.

I'm not sure it will be much of a shellshock, will it? Everyone knew the deficit this year was going to be in the high hundreds of billions. It's projected to be up above a trillion in the next few years. Obviously that's unsustainable. The interest on the debt is already something like 7% of our annual budget, and it's only getting bigger. It's projected to pass defense spending by like 2028, give or take a year or two depending on who's doing the projection. I definitely agree we need to get our spending under control. We need to make some hard choices with restructuring domestic programs. Everyone just wants to cut military spending like that will fix everything, but one of the things I explain here is that military spending is not the main thing driving our deficits, and there's only so much we can cut it realistically. Even if you cut military spending to zero, we're still running a deficit. We must cut domestic spending somewhere.

I think it will be a shell shock to many. I don't remember any of the 2016 campaign promises about a coming recession. People are expecting growth and better money and better trade, so if we get a recession, loss of homes and jobs -- I think many will be very surprised.

It won't be for me, because I've been realizing this for the past few months, or to you, but to many voters and supporters it will very much come as a shock.

We need to keep a close eye on these numbers, disregard whatever politicians say, on either side, and focus only on the numbers. If the trend continues, we need to become VERY vocal before it's too late.

originally posted by: bigfatfurrytexan
Coming from an accountant...until those numbers recieve an annual audit, im just assuming its all made up.

That will be around the 13th or 14th of October. These are monthly audits/reports done by our Department of Treasury. If you just want to focus on the yearly, it will be a 3 month wait, but it will come from the same auditors.

originally posted by: Kharron

originally posted by: Bluntone22
a reply to: Kharron

These decades of overspending are going to bite us in the butt soon.

They will, bigly. The truth is our economy is on approximately a 10 year cycle, and we enter a small recession ever so often. If you check all those numbers, whether one likes Obama or not, he dug us out in 2008/2009. He was in office for 8 years and rode out most of that decade before things start going down again. So I'm saying things were naturally starting to go down even under Obama.

The issue is, Trump is doing nothing to make the numbers better and his spending is extreme. He may push what would be a natural recession into a much bigger one, or even a depression. The deficit is accelerating very steeply over the last couple of years.

Obama bailed us out in 2008/2009. Can you say Quantitative Easing?

All Obama did was double down on the same economic policies Bush had.

Which isn't exactly surprising considering both were Progressives.

So the "surplus" you are showing in some months was actually money injected into the economy to keep it afloat by just making money out of thin air backed by nothing and putting it into the market. So why do we have inflation... LOL.

You are also just listing the Treasury. The US of A has 4 sets of books. 5 if we want to include black ops, which should actually pay for itself as long as there are poppies and American assets in Afghanistan.

Just sayin.

originally posted by: Middleoftheroad
Major cuts need to happen across the board if we were to attempt to fix our deficit.

Here is a list of things I think would help.

Reduce our military footprint, "protecting" the whole world isn't sustainable.
Remove all Corporate welfare. If they can't make it as a business without a government handout they don't deserve to be in business.
Major cuts to foreign aid and social services.
Stop the War on Terrorism and just defend our country with strict immigration laws.

The rampant illegal immigration also hurts our economy more than most want to admit. It suppresses wages, which ties into how much the federal gov pulls in on taxes. It also burdens the system by detaining them, court processes, social services programs, etc.

There are so many other things that need to be fixed I'd be here all day listing them but in my opinion, those are the big-ticket items.

I don't agree with all of this, but enough of it to star it. Some hard choices have to be made, and nobody is gonna like all of them. We can't keep running on credit forever.

originally posted by: Kharron

originally posted by: face23785

originally posted by: Kharron

originally posted by: face23785

originally posted by: Kharron

originally posted by: face23785
a reply to: Kharron

I can't wait for the "damn tax cuts" posts, which will completely ignore that the tax cuts only marginally raised the deficit. It was already #ing huge. And it's yet to be seen if the "cost" of the tax cuts will be offset by economic growth. CBO said that wouldn't happen, but they only projected 1.8% growth and it's going to be well over that. More growth equals more tax revenue.

More growth, less taxes, we'll see how it plays out.

The tariffs and their impact are largely guesses at this point also and that will affect the numbers for next year mostly, however it may have some effect on the last couple of fiscal months of this year too.

If this year ends with $800b or larger deficit, we can't pretend any more or many will suffer... again.

I really don't expect this to turn into a full-blown trade war. Most of the countries we're dicking with simply can't afford to get into a trade fight with us. They don't want to cave too easily, but eventually most of them are going to give in. We won't get completely balanced trade, but we'll make some gains. That will give us even more revenue.

In an ideal world, where everything goes well and everyone caves and we win, that would happen. We can hope, right? If, in October, when we get the numbers for the whole year, we see that the deficit has increased to $800-900b, a 40-50% increase over the previous year and a 100% increase over a couple of years ago... then we can safely stop hoping for the best and start acting on preventing it.

I think we should demand changes now, but I think it will take the shell shock of the October report until some start realizing what's happening.

I'm not sure it will be much of a shellshock, will it? Everyone knew the deficit this year was going to be in the high hundreds of billions. It's projected to be up above a trillion in the next few years. Obviously that's unsustainable. The interest on the debt is already something like 7% of our annual budget, and it's only getting bigger. It's projected to pass defense spending by like 2028, give or take a year or two depending on who's doing the projection. I definitely agree we need to get our spending under control. We need to make some hard choices with restructuring domestic programs. Everyone just wants to cut military spending like that will fix everything, but one of the things I explain here is that military spending is not the main thing driving our deficits, and there's only so much we can cut it realistically. Even if you cut military spending to zero, we're still running a deficit. We must cut domestic spending somewhere.

I think it will be a shell shock to many. I don't remember any of the 2016 campaign promises about a coming recession. People are expecting growth and better money and better trade, so if we get a recession, loss of homes and jobs -- I think many will be very surprised.

It won't be for me, because I've been realizing this for the past few months, or to you, but to many voters and supporters it will very much come as a shock.

We need to keep a close eye on these numbers, disregard whatever politicians say, on either side, and focus only on the numbers. If the trend continues, we need to become VERY vocal before it's too late.

Recession will be a surprise yeah, I was strictly talking about the budget deficit. A budget deficit by itself won't cause a recession though. We are due for one, for sure. We already had a correction this year. All we can do is hope the next one is short and shallow this time. It's happened before.

a reply to: Middleoftheroad

Well put, on everything. I agree with pretty much everything you said. If only we could get even one of those things done.

We all keep hoping, over and over, only to be struck by realization that nothing is changing.

a reply to: Kharron

It requires both parties to fix. It will never happen, they will walk us over the edge.

originally posted by: OccamsRazor04
a reply to: Kharron

It requires both parties to fix. It will never happen, they will walk us over the edge.

I think both parties are fully capable of working together, but they collectively have no desire to. They can point at each other, and blame "them" for nothing getting done, then they all go for beers at the bar down the road. I think a unifying factor should be that congress is THE problem and we need to flush it all down the drain and start over. Sadly, the ones' who make the laws are the one's who need to go, so we will probably just see them vote themselves a raise just before their summer break.

But Trump.

a reply to: Kharron

what were the deficit numbers for 2009-2013??