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originally posted by: DexterRiley
I was wondering how this system was superior to standard rockets. But I see that this spaceplace is designed for quick turnaround. It doesn't have all the moving parts of a standard SpaceX rocket, so there are fewer pieces to reassemble and certify for its next relaunch
originally posted by: moebius
originally posted by: DexterRiley
I was wondering how this system was superior to standard rockets. But I see that this spaceplace is designed for quick turnaround. It doesn't have all the moving parts of a standard SpaceX rocket, so there are fewer pieces to reassemble and certify for its next relaunch
Rudders, flaps and landing gear are moving parts. The wing and heat shield are extra weight to be carried.
Also the $5M/launch sound like a lot of wishful thinking.
originally posted by: [post=23574261]moebius
When I saw the $5 million target cost, I immediate multiplied that by 10. Maybe for $50 million they might get a quick turnaround and refueled in a day. But I suspect that a week may be more likely. And the way the US government works, $50 million might also be a pipe dream.
SpaceX requires weeks to get a rocket ready for flight and then to reuse the rocket currently takes a 3 month refurbishment.
This is intended to reuse in 24 hours and be ready in the same time frame.
originally posted by: anzha
Musk does a lot of stunts. Musk also has a history of cancelling a rocket companies depend on (Falcon1). Musk also has a history of being very, very late on deliveries: FalconHeavy was 5 years behind schedule and his Falcon9 manifest is years behind schedule.
While what Musk does with launching payloads at much cheaper than ULA prices is a great thing, depending on SpaceX to deliver payloads in a time critical manner when its a national security issue, potentially even war, is not something I'd want to do. DARPA seems to agree.
And besides, a second source on ANYTHING is a good idea. Remember the shuttle being grounded? Twice. There's a reason why NASA isn't just giving human spaceflight over to just SpaceX. Same here.
Musk this, Musk that. Who cares
An meanwhile, NASA has been solely relying on Roskosmos to get their crews up since 2009. Works like a charm.
I'm against the government paying twice for the same capability. IF there is another commercial provider on the same level there is no reason they shouldnt get their share of the pie.
But i do not want the Government investing billions into redundant capabilities just because someone doesnt like the free market and wants their own premium solution.
originally posted by: anzha
a reply to: mightmight
Musk's companies are driven by his personality. You cannot divorce him from the companies (at present) when you consider the implications of doing business there.
Track records do matter.
Being profitable matters. SpaceX isn't.
So, why have an air force? We could hire black water (xi or whatever its called) to provide the same thing for the same price, right? They're a commercial provider.
So why develop fast movers? Sats do the job just fine and even have better overflight.
Why develop anything other than what industry decides to give us?
originally posted by: mightmight
Space X has a sound business modell. Falcon launches are profitable.
At the moment the amount of private capital investment SpaceX can draw from is essentially unlimited anyway.
They dont need to show any revenue or use profits from Falcon launches to fund all their other projects.
And even if SpaceX goes out of business in a decade or whatever - there will be other commercial providers to pick up the pork. The genie is out of the bottle, commercial space exploration is the future.
You build fastmovers because satellites cant provide time critical intelligence.
Obviously there wont ever be a commercial solution for many military requirements. But *Space* isnt one of them - anymore.
Like him or not -
but Musk has pushed the envelope on space flight further than most people realize.
originally posted by: anzha
They are not yet profitable. SpaceX has stated so.
Every $50M nonreusable Falcon9 is sold at a loss.
The launch cadence of the Falcon9R is not high enough yet to generate a profit. The refurbishment costs are higher than they expected.
SpaceX is here to stay so long as silicon valley is willing to pour money into it or the business model is changed enough to become profitable.
Musk has already stated he will be ditching the F9 and the FH once the BFR is fully functional.
You seriously did not say that...
True until there is an alternative that cuts enough into the revenue to make people nervous and stop putting money into spacex.
oh come on
That is utterly incorrect. *IF* you are willing to expend the delta V, a sat will ALWAYS get there first. You just have to be willing to spend the fuel.
IF spacex were demonstrated to be a profitable, sustainable business, I might listen more. However, it's not.
IF Musk had demonstrated a consistent, rapid turn around, where a rocket could be launched and refurbished in a short time frame, then you might have me listening.
If Musk didn't change course as often as he does with his business then, with the other two, I might be listening.
All of these things must be taken into account when dealing with a business when national security is involved.
When spacex demonstrates it can be trusted to be around, not leave the US in the lurch and there are alternatives, totally agree: the US military does do airlines after all.
Let me simplify this as much as I can: Eggs. One basket. Bad idea.