The Surprisingly Solid Mathematical Case of the Tin Foil Hat Gun Prepper

a reply to: Allaroundyou

I wasnt wanting to be correct. I was wanting to muse on other variables

a reply to: TrueBrit

You make a strong argument I must say. But I am still going to be killing those a holes when they come a marching. As for bees I tend to just let them bee......

a reply to: bigfatfurrytexan
I always try(often failing) to be a devils advocate in all situations. I just think that maybe not all variables were taken into account but the same can be said for anything that we try to “math”.

a reply to: infolurker
If "Afghan goat herders" are beating the US military, guess who comprises the US military? lol It'll be like watching keystone cops but with many deaths.


I've said it time and again (with no response from anyone), all they have to do is label you a domestic terrorist. They have everyone so afraid of that word that it doesn't matter if it's your neighbor, you'll rat them out. Everyone HATES terrorism. You will lose before you can form small tribal groups...

originally posted by: one4all

originally posted by: IkNOwSTuff
I hate guns and there’s no argument or mathematical formula that will ever change that...... But
What Ive SEEN happening in the USA in the past few years has made me do a 180 degrees turn on my thoughts on Americans disarming.

Your entire governmental structure has been compromised and seems to be actively working against the American people and I hate to say this but I think it’s exclusively down to the fact that so many of you buggers are armed that it hasn’t gone considerably worse.

I look at the people who are pushing for disarming you (always with armed security ironically) and they scare me more than any gun nut Ive ever seen on YouTube

I 2nd this....thank goodness Americans have guns.....their Govt. was so rotten before the Trump movement that the floor was falling out.

Imagine living in a place like Canada where you do have fought for and earned the absolute right and freedom to carry a concealed handgun anywhere anytime you choose....ooops....I mean except for the fact that the Provincial levels of Govt. have fraudulently
formed an adhoc anti-citizen group calling themselves Provincial Firearms Officers and on this level EVERYONE IS ARBITARILY DENIED their FEDERAL RIGHTS AND FREEDOMS by informal agreement...do the math on that.

Every time I see a Cop murder someone inside their car needlessly online and then call it SOP I realise everyone needs to have and carry a gun.......every time I see someone tazed to death in pubic by a Peace Office I shudder and remember to remember that EVERYONE should have and carry a gun....when I watch Walmart shoppers being MURDERED by HIRED ASSASINS THEY CALL SECURITY and then SUPPORRTED BY JUDGES AND THE LEGAL SYSTEM I think to myself...wow...everybody needs to be carrying a gun or they could die simply going to the Supermarket....killed by some dotard with a gun calling themselves the law on some level.

Never once, in my whole life in Canada, have I ever wished I had the right to carry a handgun. I cannot imagine living with that level of fear.

I looked very carefully at the floodplain map when we purchased a house 15 years ago. According to their data our house sat right on the 500 year event line. I was ok with that figuring we might stay there 10 maybe 20 years at most. Lo and behold within 2 years we had hurricane Gaston drop 14 inches of water in 3 hours. Even that amount of rain didn't necessarily mean our house would flood but there was major construction going on where a shopping plaza was going to be built. They had graded all the dirt, laid out roads and even built a silt pond for overflow.

Behind this construction zone was a railroad and where it crossed a depression that built it up 30 feet and installed a drainage pipe. So much water piled up against it that it blew the pipe out and made a hole in the berm. A wall of water came down the hill and fed in to the creek that ran behind our house.

Long story still too long, we got flooded on the 500 year line within 2 years of buying the place. We didn't have flood insurance because we didn't "qualify". I had to replace all the HVAC and heat pump myself. This was only 3 years after I lost a car during another hurricane when a pine tree on the neighbor's property fell right on top.

I learned the hard way statistical possibilities are more than likely to not wait around for someone else. Funny thing is I was a prepper long before either of those events so at least I had what I needed on hand to stay a week without power and knew how to shut things off to prevent further damage.

Eta: The writer was incorrect as the Civil War was not an attempted overthrow of the government.

originally posted by: Allaroundyou
a reply to: bigfatfurrytexan

I don’t see how the part about adding up the chances of a flood make sense. Math was not my strong point but I feel that there are other things that should be considered. Such as where you live would greatly change that calculation. So lets say you live in Texas or Florida where hurricanes are common would the chance of a flood not be greater than say Nevada for instance?
When I used the term biased earlier I was only speaking about that in a geographical sense. Just wanted to clear that one up.
For the most all the math presented in the article makes sense. It is only when I see something that does not to me at least I get skeptical of the entire piece. Since math was never my thing I don’t like it when equations are thrown at me then one just kinda sticks out as being possibly not true. I’ll be honest it kinda freaks me out. Anyways if you could clear that part up I would greatly appreciate it.

The flood example is demonstrating how a statistically insignificant event can occur if given enough time. A 100 year flood means that there is a 1% chance of it occurring in any given year. However, when you consider each year is it's own event, over the course of say 30 years, it is a fairly high likelihood that it could occur.

It is analogous to tyranny or some other event that preppers are preparing for. The odds of tyranny occurring are low, but given enough years, it will occur.

a reply to: Edumakated

I Ike the way you explained that. Thank you

a reply to: Allaroundyou
That was literally the exact same way it was explained in the article, which tells us all you did not even read it all. Maybe next time you should.

originally posted by: one4all

originally posted by: IkNOwSTuff
I hate guns and there’s no argument or mathematical formula that will ever change that...... But
What Ive SEEN happening in the USA in the past few years has made me do a 180 degrees turn on my thoughts on Americans disarming.

Your entire governmental structure has been compromised and seems to be actively working against the American people and I hate to say this but I think it’s exclusively down to the fact that so many of you buggers are armed that it hasn’t gone considerably worse.

I look at the people who are pushing for disarming you (always with armed security ironically) and they scare me more than any gun nut Ive ever seen on YouTube

I 2nd this....thank goodness Americans have guns.....their Govt. was so rotten before the Trump movement that the floor was falling out.

Imagine living in a place like Canada where you do have fought for and earned the absolute right and freedom to carry a concealed handgun anywhere anytime you choose....ooops....I mean except for the fact that the Provincial levels of Govt. have fraudulently
formed an adhoc anti-citizen group calling themselves Provincial Firearms Officers and on this level EVERYONE IS ARBITARILY DENIED their FEDERAL RIGHTS AND FREEDOMS by informal agreement...do the math on that.

Every time I see a Cop murder someone inside their car needlessly online and then call it SOP I realise everyone needs to have and carry a gun.......every time I see someone tazed to death in pubic by a Peace Office I shudder and remember to remember that EVERYONE should have and carry a gun....when I watch Walmart shoppers being MURDERED by HIRED ASSASINS THEY CALL SECURITY and then SUPPORRTED BY JUDGES AND THE LEGAL SYSTEM I think to myself...wow...everybody needs to be carrying a gun or they could die simply going to the Supermarket....killed by some dotard with a gun calling themselves the law on some level.

Yeah, MY standard operating procedure is that when I see someone abusing another person, I Do Something About It! I don't care what type or color of clothing they are wearing at the time they decided to start abusing someone.

originally posted by: superman2012

originally posted by: one4all

originally posted by: IkNOwSTuff
I hate guns and there’s no argument or mathematical formula that will ever change that...... But
What Ive SEEN happening in the USA in the past few years has made me do a 180 degrees turn on my thoughts on Americans disarming.

Your entire governmental structure has been compromised and seems to be actively working against the American people and I hate to say this but I think it’s exclusively down to the fact that so many of you buggers are armed that it hasn’t gone considerably worse.

I look at the people who are pushing for disarming you (always with armed security ironically) and they scare me more than any gun nut Ive ever seen on YouTube

I 2nd this....thank goodness Americans have guns.....their Govt. was so rotten before the Trump movement that the floor was falling out.

Imagine living in a place like Canada where you do have fought for and earned the absolute right and freedom to carry a concealed handgun anywhere anytime you choose....ooops....I mean except for the fact that the Provincial levels of Govt. have fraudulently
formed an adhoc anti-citizen group calling themselves Provincial Firearms Officers and on this level EVERYONE IS ARBITARILY DENIED their FEDERAL RIGHTS AND FREEDOMS by informal agreement...do the math on that.

Every time I see a Cop murder someone inside their car needlessly online and then call it SOP I realise everyone needs to have and carry a gun.......every time I see someone tazed to death in pubic by a Peace Office I shudder and remember to remember that EVERYONE should have and carry a gun....when I watch Walmart shoppers being MURDERED by HIRED ASSASINS THEY CALL SECURITY and then SUPPORRTED BY JUDGES AND THE LEGAL SYSTEM I think to myself...wow...everybody needs to be carrying a gun or they could die simply going to the Supermarket....killed by some dotard with a gun calling themselves the law on some level.

Never once, in my whole life in Canada, have I ever wished I had the right to carry a handgun. I cannot imagine living with that level of fear.

Its better to have one and not need it than to need one and not have it....maybe you are comfortable with standing by willfully helplessly while some fanatic or unstable murderer begins mowing down innocent people all around you with an Airplane a gun a Vehicle or a knife.....maybe you feel so insecure with you beliefs inner fortitude and decision making ability that you do not wish to strive to protect those whom you love from potential misfortunes and that is your free-will choice which I defend for you and with you .......I am not paranoid....you are derelict....I am not over-the-top you are failing to exhibit due diligence.....I wish you had a t-shirt or a hat with a symbol for your apathy upon it so well intended people do not waste energy seeking to protect you from potentialities which you willfully accept and by proxy endorse.I accept your right to your perspective fully and completely and I wish for you and those with your perspective to be given 100% respect as you are left standing in front of your imminent murders by said lunatics who as evidence shows do in fact stalk innocent people in every Country on every Continent.

The opinions on the right to carry handguns as dictated by your personal emotions morals or ideals has absolutely no bearing on your responsibility as a Canadian to defend the Charter of Rights and Freedoms and every Federally stated right the citizenry has demanded and received......these aren't gifts these are societal demands and must be treated as such.....you have a responsibility over and above your own opinions which were voiced when you voted and this is to defend the rights and freedoms of others which by proxy defends you yourself.

You do not have to like guns or wish to carry one but you have an obligation to defend the properly and duely demanded and instituted rights and freedoms of the citizenry of your Country wherever you are in the world.


I explained the ILLEGAL MECHANISM BRIEFLY THAT GOVERNMENTS ALL OVER THE WORLD USE TO ILLEGALLY ABBROGATE THEIR DUE DILLIGENCE AND RESPONSIBILITIES THEY HAVE BEEN CHARGED WITH BY THEIR OWN WILLFULL ACCEPTANCE OF OFFICE.

We can expand upon this easily and provide a laundry list of rights which have been illegally abrogated and we can show the rotten Judges and Lawyers and Politicians and Civic Leaders and Law Enforcement Leaders and private Civil action group leaders who COLLUDED AND CONSPIRED to action these illegal activities .

a reply to: worldstarcountry

I did read the article but was also paying much more attention to my job. Many emails had to be sent before I can continue our agendas. Sorry if I missed a few parts or just wasn’t fully devoted to it. That is why I asked for clarification.

originally posted by: Allaroundyou
a reply to: bigfatfurrytexan

I don’t see how the part about adding up the chances of a flood make sense. Math was not my strong point but I feel that there are other things that should be considered. Such as where you live would greatly change that calculation. So lets say you live in Texas or Florida where hurricanes are common would the chance of a flood not be greater than say Nevada for instance?
When I used the term biased earlier I was only speaking about that in a geographical sense. Just wanted to clear that one up.
For the most all the math presented in the article makes sense. It is only when I see something that does not to me at least I get skeptical of the entire piece. Since math was never my thing I don’t like it when equations are thrown at me then one just kinda sticks out as being possibly not true. I’ll be honest it kinda freaks me out. Anyways if you could clear that part up I would greatly appreciate it.

It depends on the slope of the land, how porous the soil is (clay is waterproof, sand is very porous), whether there is vegetation or urban concrete and storm drains to channel away the water. But once you have a river, you are guaranteed a clay soil or solid rock and that you are close to the minimum land elevation in that area (water flows downwards). By definition a flood plain is the area of land where the water level rises and falls depending on weather conditions upstream. Root systems of plants and trees will absorb water and release is slowly. Concrete and solid rock just let the water float on the surface and rush downwards - like those mountain gulleys that experience flash floods.

The probability that the flood-plain reaches a particular height is down to the probabilty that one or more severe rain storms hit the catchment area of that river.