The coming-within days- inflation hit.

Within a couple of weeks, we will see the start of real inflation.

It won't be the influx of Corporate money due to tax reform. It won't be a result of Fed policy or wage increases. Those are down the road a bit.

What is about to become mandatory is electronic logs in the trucking industry. Numerous large trucking companies already have them, some for years. Now, however, every commercial vehicle nation-wide will be required to have them. There will be some exceptions. Local trucks, usually 'day-cabs' with no sleepers may be exempt. A few other exceptions as well.

The 'suits' predict a 2-6% drop in deliveries. At 6%, they say it will cause problems with deliveries and subsequent rate increases. Those numbers are leave out serious factors.

First, a little background. Within the trucking industry, as with all industries, there is competition. A major version has been the large trucking companies vs the small and independents. These big firms have been represented by the A.T.A.. The American Trucking Association. As is the norm, this organization has the money, power and lobbyists. Their advantage over the small guys is volume discounts. Tires, fuel, repairs even the purchase price of the trucks and trailers, themselves.

The advantage the independents and smaller companies have is dedication. Get the load there. Yes, speed, is a factor. Self repairs for minor issues, sacrificing home time and suffering bad weather. Self cooked meals, a thermos of coffee and and get down the road.

That's a generalized overview of it. Now those small companies and independents will have to pay for the system and cut his driving options. This pays perfectly into the big companies plans.

To make a long story a bit shorter, a percentage will not be able to afford or even be inclined to use this system and will retire or quit operating as truckers. The numbers are unknown.

As the system records speed, even the gear and RPM, as well as the location of the vehicle, there is little 'wiggle room' for the truckers. Hence my decision to retire from the industry. (There's many examples I could give where the system is flawed and they may come up with those that are 'company drivers' as opposed to 'truckers'.

This will effect the regional drivers the most as their loads tend to be shorter and very much tied to the hours of business of their customers. 6-8 loads regionally vs 1-2 loads long haul. The hours of business will be in conflict with the hours of service. This will and does result in less deliveries per truck and therefore less revenue for both the drivers and the companies.

As there is a shortage of qualified drivers even without this system, more drivers and trucks will be required to compensate. Besides the irritation of more trucks on the road, we will have, at my estimate, a 10-15% inflation of truck rates for everything shipped by truck. Which is just about everything!!

My numbers are estimates only. It could be less, but coupled with other economic factors, this could be the start of something very big, inflation-wise.

Basics will be more expensive. The question is how fast and how far that spike will be. It is coming however.

Adding this into all the rest of the stuff we face, 2018 is going to be very interesting right from the beginning.

Bring on the AI drones.

a reply to: nwtrucker

I work in the industry - technology side. You are spot on, man. This is a big, big deal and NO ONE is talking about it. Nobody realizes how shipping - particularly OTR trucks - affect everything. How does everyone think that latest iPhone or XBox gets to the store?

This is huge and has massive economic impact.

Wow! Amazing that you brought this subject up. Yesterday on the news (Japan), due to shortage of drivers and the increase of transportation cost, all 3 three major beer makers have or will decide to increase the cost of liquor. One has already stated a 10% increase starting next year.
Seems like this is not only an American problem but other countries as well. I wonder what regulations will affect the driverless trucks. Will they be limited to 8 hours a day travel time. If you really think about it, if not, the independent (larger ones) will probably call it quits. A firm in Illinois has already closed shop. My 2 brothers worked for that firm and now are umemployed.

a reply to: nwtrucker

So is this system intended to stop cheating on driving hours in the name of safety?

originally posted by: PrairieShepherd
a reply to: nwtrucker

I work in the industry - technology side. You are spot on, man. This is a big, big deal and NO ONE is talking about it. Nobody realizes how shipping - particularly OTR trucks - affect everything. How does everyone think that latest iPhone or XBox gets to the store?

This is huge and has massive economic impact.

I had held hope that President Trump's overall deregulation goals would also apply somewhat to trucking, as well. Unfortunately, he appointed Mitch McConnell's wife as Sec of Transportation. Obviously an appeasement to McConnell that didn't work....

Transportation isn't high on the totem pole of priorities, I suppose....sigh.

a reply to: nwtrucker

No, probably not, and my guess is that while Trump may be economically savvy, his success probably doesn't depend hugely on shipping and commodities. I believe he made his money in real estate, unless i miss my guess.

originally posted by: nwtrucker
Within a couple of weeks, we will see the start of real inflation.

It won't be the influx of Corporate money due to tax reform. It won't be a result of Fed policy or wage increases. Those are down the road a bit.

What is about to become mandatory is electronic logs in the trucking industry. Numerous large trucking companies already have them, some for years. Now, however, every commercial vehicle nation-wide will be required to have them. There will be some exceptions. Local trucks, usually 'day-cabs' with no sleepers may be exempt. A few other exceptions as well.

The 'suits' predict a 2-6% drop in deliveries. At 6%, they say it will cause problems with deliveries and subsequent rate increases. Those numbers are leave out serious factors.

First, a little background. Within the trucking industry, as with all industries, there is competition. A major version has been the large trucking companies vs the small and independents. These big firms have been represented by the A.T.A.. The American Trucking Association. As is the norm, this organization has the money, power and lobbyists. Their advantage over the small guys is volume discounts. Tires, fuel, repairs even the purchase price of the trucks and trailers, themselves.

The advantage the independents and smaller companies have is dedication. Get the load there. Yes, speed, is a factor. Self repairs for minor issues, sacrificing home time and suffering bad weather. Self cooked meals, a thermos of coffee and and get down the road.

That's a generalized overview of it. Now those small companies and independents will have to pay for the system and cut his driving options. This pays perfectly into the big companies plans.

To make a long story a bit shorter, a percentage will not be able to afford or even be inclined to use this system and will retire or quit operating as truckers. The numbers are unknown.

As the system records speed, even the gear and RPM, as well as the location of the vehicle, there is little 'wiggle room' for the truckers. Hence my decision to retire from the industry. (There's many examples I could give where the system is flawed and they may come up with those that are 'company drivers' as opposed to 'truckers'.

This will effect the regional drivers the most as their loads tend to be shorter and very much tied to the hours of business of their customers. 6-8 loads regionally vs 1-2 loads long haul. The hours of business will be in conflict with the hours of service. This will and does result in less deliveries per truck and therefore less revenue for both the drivers and the companies.

As there is a shortage of qualified drivers even without this system, more drivers and trucks will be required to compensate. Besides the irritation of more trucks on the road, we will have, at my estimate, a 10-15% inflation of truck rates for everything shipped by truck. Which is just about everything!!

My numbers are estimates only. It could be less, but coupled with other economic factors, this could be the start of something very big, inflation-wise.

Basics will be more expensive. The question is how fast and how far that spike will be. It is coming however.

Adding this into all the rest of the stuff we face, 2018 is going to be very interesting right from the beginning.

I see this in my industry of banking. All these regulations get imposed in the name of "protecting consumers" when in fact all that happens is costs are increased on everyone while the bureaucrats can't show one instance where a consumer was in fact protected with hard data. However, it makes everyone feel good.

Often times the biggest companies like the regulations because it is much more of a hassle for smaller companies to deal with than the large companies due to scale.

The sad thing is that consumers don't know they are paying more for this nonsense because the costs are hidden with inflation.

originally posted by: Bluntone22
a reply to: nwtrucker

So is this system intended to stop cheating on driving hours in the name of safety?

That's the argument. Of course, it aligns with the gov't DNA of more and more control. Damn any consequences, of course.

I would go one step further and say latitude is required, as opposed to 'cheating'. If there's a snow storm approaching, an old trucker will get across the pass, then go to sleep. He may choose to drive into a city at 2 AM and avoid the rush hour traffic and therefore have time to reload.

There 'was' a provision that allowed a driver to go over the legal hours if weather conditions demanded it, with those extra hours used subtracted from the total available for the remainder of the week. I don't recall when we lost that one.

Robots is the ideal worker these days. I'll pass, thanks.

originally posted by: nwtrucker

originally posted by: Bluntone22
a reply to: nwtrucker

So is this system intended to stop cheating on driving hours in the name of safety?

That's the argument. Of course, it aligns with the gov't DNA of more and more control. Damn any consequences, of course.

I would go one step further and say latitude is required, as opposed to 'cheating'. If there's a snow storm approaching, an old trucker will get across the pass, then go to sleep. He may choose to drive into a city at 2 AM and avoid the rush hour traffic and therefore have time to reload.

There 'was' a provision that allowed a driver to go over the legal hours if weather conditions demanded it, with those extra hours used subtracted from the total available for the remainder of the week. I don't recall when we lost that one.

Robots is the ideal worker these days. I'll pass, thanks.

Bureaucrats eliminate any ability to use "professional judgement".

originally posted by: musicismagic
Wow! Amazing that you brought this subject up. Yesterday on the news (Japan), due to shortage of drivers and the increase of transportation cost, all 3 three major beer makers have or will decide to increase the cost of liquor. One has already stated a 10% increase starting next year.
Seems like this is not only an American problem but other countries as well. I wonder what regulations will affect the driverless trucks. Will they be limited to 8 hours a day travel time. If you really think about it, if not, the independent (larger ones) will probably call it quits. A firm in Illinois has already closed shop. My 2 brothers worked for that firm and now are umemployed.

I laugh at the driverless truck scenario. Add that one in and it's gonna be a rough transition. Envision running the Columbia Gorge on I-84 in the winter. You don't know the temperature from one curve to the next. No computer system can tell you when traction will be lost until it is lost. Yes? The only solution to that and, say, an accident in any major city, will be to shut the whole system down. Stop everything...

a reply to: nwtrucker

Well most rules are about the 3 percent.

The 3 percent that abuse the system and screw it up for everybody else.

originally posted by: PrairieShepherd
a reply to: nwtrucker

I work in the industry - technology side. You are spot on, man. This is a big, big deal and NO ONE is talking about it. Nobody realizes how shipping - particularly OTR trucks - affect everything. How does everyone think that latest iPhone or XBox gets to the store?

This is huge and has massive economic impact.

No where in the world had/has a trucking system quite like the U.S.. The arteries of the nation. Slow the flow, you slow the 'life blood', so to speak.

a reply to: nwtrucker

Exactly. Not sure this bit of your post got as much attention as it deserves:

As there is a shortage of qualified drivers even without this system, more drivers and trucks will be required to compensate. Besides the irritation of more trucks on the road, we will have, at my estimate, a 10-15% inflation of truck rates for everything shipped by truck. Which is just about everything!!

There's one of the big killers. We're ALREADY in a driver shortage. You take out the independents - the small one-owner < 10 rigs, or the owner-operators who can't afford this system, and you've drastically changed the industry. This is as big or bigger than the mechanization of farming in the early 20th century. Easily

They are setting up the system to get rid of truckers or vastly reduce the numbers. They need to get things in place for the driverless trucks to take over.

originally posted by: PrairieShepherd
a reply to: nwtrucker

Exactly. Not sure this bit of your post got as much attention as it deserves:

As there is a shortage of qualified drivers even without this system, more drivers and trucks will be required to compensate. Besides the irritation of more trucks on the road, we will have, at my estimate, a 10-15% inflation of truck rates for everything shipped by truck. Which is just about everything!!

There's one of the big killers. We're ALREADY in a driver shortage. You take out the independents - the small one-owner < 10 rigs, or the owner-operators who can't afford this system, and you've drastically changed the industry. This is as big or bigger than the mechanization of farming in the early 20th century. Easily

Well, There will be a wage hike for drivers, if for no other reason than supply and demand. Some of those that are currently owners would likely transition to driving for companies. That's what I did a number of years back.

A goodly number already don't speak English. LOL. The direction the trucking industry is taking has been in the works for decades, at least.

Trucking will fall under the 'umbrella' of a mandatory service, as is Buffet owned railway systems, energy systems, Ag, any deemed to be critical to maintaining infrastructure will receive 'compensation' from the Gov't to continue service.

Hence, part of the reason the big boys have moved to rail, trucking companies, etc. instead of manufacturing.

Your 'investment' will be guaranteed by the Federal Gov't.

Slick....

originally posted by: Edumakated
They are setting up the system to get rid of truckers or vastly reduce the numbers. They need to get things in place for the driverless trucks to take over.

Then you had better start your own 'hot house'. Grow your own food. Add in everything else you consume.

We'll probably get there eventually. The transition will be a nightmare, however.

a reply to: Lysergic

We are already doing drone delivery based out of my city - Thunder Bay Ontario.
It's a pilot program, sending packages 10kilos and under to the northern communities.

Because of my position in the drone industry, I was asked to be a consultant on some of the tech being used - batteries, motors, 3d printed parts and stability.
Each UAV comes in at just over $200,000. And there's 10 in the fleet operational.
If I didn't sign a NDA, I would post a couple pics of the things internals.
It's pretty intense seeing how much is packed into the thing.
I can post a press release however.

Drone Delivery Canada

originally posted by: Macenroe82
a reply to: Lysergic

We are already doing drone delivery based out of my city - Thunder Bay Ontario.
It's a pilot program, sending packages 10kilos and under to the northern communities.

Because of my position in the drone industry, I was asked to be a consultant on some of the tech being used - batteries, motors, 3d printed parts and stability.
Each UAV comes in at just over $200,000. And there's 10 in the fleet operational.
If I didn't sign a NDA, I would post a couple pics of the things internals.
It's pretty intense seeing how much is packed into the thing.
I can post a press release however.

Drone Delivery Canada

A lot of locations up north that are hard to get to. Many applications where this will work. Where it gets complicated is mixing drone-robotics with human controlled traffic, it's gonna be tough.