Hurricane Nate expected to hit Central Gulf Coast this weekend

a reply to: jrod
It's almost in the Gulf now. I'll assume the next update is an upgrade to hurricane status

Latest Update on TS Nate

10:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 6
...NATE ALMOST A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
Location: 22.3°N 86.4°W
Moving: NNW at 22 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

a reply to: violet

I may have written off rapid intensification too soon. The NHC discussion mentioned a 50% chance of RI, despite how fast Nate is moving.

There has been a major increase of deep convection near the center and the overall appearence is starting to look good.

I agree, we will likely see a hurricane next advisory. The pressure and flight level winds are already consistant of a hurricane.

We do NOT want to see rapid intensification.

a reply to: jrod


As pointed out yesterday, every hurricane that has affected the U.S. this year went through a rapid intensification at some point, before arriving onshore.

But now that we're past the peak of Hurricane formation, Nate might be the first to NOT undergo R.I.. Hopefully that will prove to be the case!

a reply to: jrod
Yep, it's a cat 1 hurricane now
For sure we don't need rapid intensification

No other updates ready right now, but it's a hurricane

.NATE BECOMES A HURRICANE

10:30 PM CDT Fri Oct 6
Location: 22.4°N 86.3°W
Moving: NNW at 22 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

I wouldn't be surprised if there's another one lurking in a week or two, there's a chance of another tropical cyclone developing in the Atlantic. Really have to keep an eye on this. It ain't over yet, but getting close to end of season now.

As of 8:00 pm EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 ...
A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 750 miles
southwest of the Azores. Environmental conditions are expected to
allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical
characteristics during the next few days, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone could form early next week while the low drifts
toward the west or southwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Hoping Nate is a weak one when it rolls ashore.

It will likely come ashore right at high tide on the coast with Mobile ALA having the highest tide of the season, being it's a full moon

Surge: A storm surge warning is up for the Gulf Coast from Morgan City, LA, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida, as well as along the northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain. The highest surge from Nate will arrive quickly on Saturday night, and will likely peak before dawn Sunday, so residents need to take the surge threat seriously and make final preparations as soon as possible on Saturday. As of 8 pm EDT Friday, the following inundations above ground level are possible with Nate, assuming the storm were to arrive during high tide:

Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...4 to 6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida border...5 to 8 ft
Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 4 ft
Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft

Because the daily high tide across this region occurs during the pre-dawn hours, it is quite possible that Nate will reach the coast near high tide. Tidal range between low and high tide is 1 - 1.3’ along the central Gulf Coast, so the timing of Nate’s storm surge with respect to the high tide can cause an additional foot or so of flooding. High tide in Mobile, Alabama is at 1:46 am local time Sunday, and it will be one of the highest high tides of the year, due to the full moon. Low tide is at 10:12 am Saturday. At Shell Beach, LA, on the east side of New Orleans, high tide is at 4:29 am local time Sunday, and low tide is at 12:14 pm Saturday.
www.wunderground.com...

Nate is now up to 90mph and expected to make land fallwith over 100mph wind in less than 12 hours.

The storm is moving north at about 26mph, which is extremely fast for a hurricane.

It looks like landfall will in Mississippi but there will be significant impacts east of the center and Alabama and west Florida will likely see hurricane conditions and storm surge.

Nate is moving very fast and almost there. People should be finalizing preparations now. Expected to be Cat 2 at landfall around or just east of Biloxi Miss.

..OUTER RAINBANDS OF NATE MOVING ONSHORE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
100 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017
WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas
* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Line
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

V

Still Cat 1

...CENTER OF NATE APPROACHING THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ONSHORE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

.....The strongest winds are expected to occur primarily to
the east of the track of the center.

3. Nate's fast forward speed after landfall will bring
tropical-storm-force winds well inland across portions of the
southeastern U.S. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect
for portions of southeastern Mississippi, much of Alabama, and
western Georgia.
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

a reply to: jrod

Curious thought on modeling.
I wonder how much the speed of the storm might influence storm surge. Seems the faster it moves, the less water can get out its way.

a reply to: Phage

Less time for the storm to pile up the water and smaller wave heights with a fast moving system.

It looks like the storm has been weakening this evening. It is making landfall as a minimal hurricane in Mississippi(which maybe a generous estimate) which is good news.

With the forward speed, the west side is consiberably weaker than the right, New Orleans is not getting much while Mobile will likely get some of the worst of the storm.

a reply to: jrod

Less time for the storm to pile up the water and smaller wave heights with a fast moving system.

Wave heights depend more upon fetch.
I can see the point in regard to storm surge for locations off of the track. But maybe look at it as adding 25 knots to the windspeed for points on the path?

a reply to: jrod


Thankfully, it looks like Nate did very little damage to the U.S.. But I heard that he/it caused more than 30 deaths while only a tropical depression, in Central America.

a reply to: Phage

Windspeed, fetch and duration are the key to wave heights. Less duration. Tropical systems usually do not have a huge fetch but can have a pseudofetch because of their track abd speed. Nate was moving too fast for that effect, it was out running the waves it produced.

Bigger waves mean bigger surge. Shoaling also contributes to higher surge. I saw a report of about 7' of surge from one of the buoys.

Overall it appears damage was minimal, however it did cause serious flooding and mudslides in Central America as a weak tropical storm/depression.

a reply to: carewemust
Nate wasn't so bad after all, thankfully