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originally posted by: ShadowChatter
a reply to: Phage
It could trigger a tipping point by providing Hurricane Irma with additional torsion flux ..
originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Nyiah
Estimates are that a Varrington event occurs, on average, once in 500 years or so.
Like a large asteroid hit, pretty rare, but when it happens watch out.
The current plasma burst from the sun stems from an M5 or relatively medium-strength flare on Monday.
In response to new research on the 1859 solar-terrestrial event
since the survey by Cliver & Svalgaard (2004), we updated our
assessment of this remarkable event. In the intervening years,
the estimate of the size of the flare has been refined from ‘‘conservatively
>X10’’ to ~X45 (±5), with bolometric flare energy
~5 · 1032 ergs (and bolometric plus CME kinetic energy of
~2 · 1033 ergs). Estimates of the Dst minimum of the associated
magnetic storm have drifted downward from 1760 nT
to ~900 nT (+50, 150), based on hourly-averaging of the
Colaba record and the likelihood of auroral contamination.
The estimate for the >30 MeV SEP fluence of ~1.9 ·
1010 pr cm2 for the Carrington event deduced from nitrate
composition in ice cores has been invalidated (Wolff et al.
2012). A nominal value of F30 = 1.1 · 1010 pr cm2 was
obtained for an X45 event (in a ‘‘worst case’’ scenario for a
sequence of eruptive flares) by using a correlation between
F30 and SXR flare fluence for space-age events. The ±1r
uncertainty band on this F30 value is large, ranging from
~109 to ~1011 pr cm2