Potentially another hurricane forming in the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Depression Thirteen formed today in the gulf and the National hurricane Center has just updated this one to possibly become a hurricane

This is number 4 , if you include Harvey. Tropical Storm Jose (poised to become a hurricane by Wednesday) is lurking right behind Hurricane Irma in the Atlantic




Here's the info for now :

It will be named Katia ( I think) once its turns into a tropical storm

From NHC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017

...DEPRESSION DRIFTING EASTWARD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO, COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 96.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

NHC

Sure seems like we are getting hammered this year.

originally posted by: rickymouse
Sure seems like we are getting hammered this year.

True, but my liquor store has some phenomenal deals.

This one looks like it might affect eastern Mexico with heavy rains, but being in the warm water in th.gulf things can change.

There's some discussion going on that it may join forces with Irma and/or Jose

a reply to: violet

Yes,it is hurricane season,strange we get them every year,and I always hear how next will be the big one,just like earthquakes,MSM has to throw in some doom porn

It's funny how we are so much more advanced yet annual hurricanes kick our ass...

a reply to: violet
Having just booked a vacation in the Dominican Republic, I'm wondering if I need to assume some blame for all this. After all...it always rains after I wash the car.

originally posted by: violet
There's some discussion going on that it may join forces with Irma and/or Jose

It's like the weather version of The Avengers.

originally posted by: ConscienceZombie
It's funny how we are so much more advanced yet annual hurricanes kick our ass...

It may be that it is because we are so advanced that we are getting hammered more. We have warmed the climate so much that the sea surface heat content right now where Irma is has risen to an incredible 80 kilojoules per square centimeter. Heat is what dries the intensity of tropical cyclones. That computes to almost a megajoule per square foot. That translates to about the energy of 2 pounds of TNT for every 4 square feet of hurricane. The hurricane now has a 300 mile diameter for an area of about 71,000 square miles. Thats2x10^12 square feet. That means that the sea surface heat energy under Irma is equialent to 500 megatons of TNT. That's 33 Hiroshima bombs.

originally posted by: F4guy

originally posted by: ConscienceZombie
It's funny how we are so much more advanced yet annual hurricanes kick our ass...

It may be that it is because we are so advanced that we are getting hammered more. We have warmed the climate so much that the sea surface heat content right now where Irma is has risen to an incredible 80 kilojoules per square centimeter. Heat is what dries the intensity of tropical cyclones. That computes to almost a megajoule per square foot. That translates to about the energy of 2 pounds of TNT for every 4 square feet of hurricane. The hurricane now has a 300 mile diameter for an area of about 71,000 square miles. Thats2x10^12 square feet. That means that the sea surface heat energy under Irma is equialent to 500 megatons of TNT. That's 33 Hiroshima bombs.

Yep , you basic hurricane .
Doesnt care for sh** what man does , though.

a reply to: rickymouse

That last one is going to Mexico according to the cone of probability. Although they say it's moving eastward right now. I guess they expect it to circle around.

a reply to: violet

Storms don't usually merge. One system moves another but they don't combine. Not as a regular occurrence anyway.
The perfect storm for which that movie was named combined a Canadian maritime storm and a hurricane.
Super storm Sandy did the same thing. But that's a rare occurrence.

a reply to: F4guy

There's something wrong with your theory.

a reply to: F4guy

Hurricanes require rising air from converging winds, heat and moisture to form. A 0.01° degree rise in the ocean isn't going to have any effect on that. We haven't warmed the climate, it's doing what it is designed to do and has done for billions of years.

Well, this is what we get for having the last few years off of major destructive hurricanes..... Mother nature playing a little game of "catch-up"

violet:

There's some discussion going on that it may join forces with Irma and/or Jose.

Indeed. Ideally (in terms of 'lesser of two evils'), you want Katia to move North-eastwards out into the Gulf sea and offer some token resistance to Irma from entering the Gulf. The problem is the direction of circular motion of both Katia and Irma. Katia is clockwise and Irma is counter-clockwise, so the potential for merging is there. Irma could steal the heat from Katia and regain strength, and drive Katia either out-of-business entirely, or nudge Katia south-eastwards.

I have this feeling that Irma will enter the Gulf, regain strength and hit New Orleans as a cat 4? I hope I am wrong.

originally posted by: LSU0408
a reply to: F4guy

Hurricanes require rising air from converging winds, heat and moisture to form. A 0.01° degree rise in the ocean isn't going to have any effect on that. We haven't warmed the climate, it's doing what it is designed to do and has done for billions of years.

You are playing the same lying game that many climate change deniers engage in. The SST rise isn't 0.01 degees, it's 1.8 degrees F in the MDR. And the rising air doesn't come from "converging winds." It is the result of convection. And convection results from heat. Per the ideal gas law, hot air has less density than cool air. The less dense air rises, and since pressure decreases with altitude, it cools, and as it cools, it reaches the dew point and condenses, releasing the heat energy of condensation (40.8 kilojoules/mol), causing more convective rising and lower pressure. Air moves in to equalize the pressure and because of the Corealis Effect, the air takes a curved track resulting in a counterclockwise spin. It's almost a perfect positive feedback loop.

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: F4guy

There's something wrong with your theory.

It's not a theory, it's mathematics. You know, a little mutiplication and division using really big numbers. And the energy content of saltwater at a given temerature is not really hard to calculate if you know the temperature, density and specific heat. For the real science geeks, the formula is Q ¼ rcpT where T is the temperature in Kelvins, p is the seawater density, and cp is the specific heat of seawater. The units (mks) are Joules. The Joule is a unit of energy that is equal to the energy transferred to (or work done on) an object when a force of one newton acts on that object in the direction of its motion through a distance of one metre (1 newton metre or N⋅m). Now, in doing the math, I used significant figures and I may have misplaced a decimal but I don't think so. In any event, it's not a "theory". It's math.

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: rickymouse

That last one is going to Mexico according to the cone of probability. Although they say it's moving eastward right now. I guess they expect it to circle around.

Cone of "uncertainty" as it is uncertain where in the Cone it makes landfall

Upgraded to hurricane
Forecast keeping it near Mexico

...HURRICANE KATIA FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ...

Hurricane Katia
4:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 6
Location: 21.7°N 95.1°W
Moving: SE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph