A380plus

As of the 1800 update from Paris:

860 Narrowbody
53 Widebody
48 Regional
77 Turboprop

1038 total

The Max 10 stands at 291 commitments.

Boeing stands at 76.23% to Airbus at 23.77% of yet orders.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Wow, they cleaned their clocks on this one. I figured the 10 would be well received but this must have surprised even Boeing.

What is the widebody break down by platform, I know there was interest in the 773ER.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Five 777s, between the -300, and the freighter, 10 A350s, but the biggest winner so far is the 787-8 and -9. Interestingly no -10s so far, even though they debuted it at the show.

a reply to: Zaphod58

I just looked up United's buys and it appears they converted 100 of their 737-9's to -10's so I guess that means they are using this to fill the void that will be left when the 757's retire and until the 797 is rolled out. Big day for Boeing on both ends of the spectrum.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

I was with a number of the commentators that the -10 was going to tank. There is only so much stretching you can do with a design before you run out of room to modify it any more, and when you stretch an aircraft to the point you have to redesign the landing gear, it's getting into the insane point of modification. But apparently the interest is there.

a reply to: Zaphod58

It's kind of funny because it's almost to the point where it's a 757 now. I did see they were showing lie-flats which would be a nice transcon addition over the current seating on United.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Boeing released their annual report. They're looking at $6.05T over the next 20 years, but are looking at removing the 747 from their production list, going with super efficient twin engine aircraft. Airbus is looking at using large aircraft like the A380 to reduce congestion by flying more passengers on fewer aircraft, while Boeing is looking at smaller aircraft to fly into airports that don't see a large volume of traffic.

a reply to: Zaphod58

My money favors Boeing, I think the days of all 4 engine passenger aircraft are over, the super efficient 2 engine platform makes the most sense.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

At this point, they're both effectively hedging on the market going their way. Airbus is in trouble if the skies/airports remain as (relatively) un-congested as they are today and the 777 family reigns as the king of long-distance routes.

At the same time, Boeing might be in trouble if long distance volumes increase to the point where consolidating 777 routes into A380 routes starts to make sense. Remember that the A380 also has at least two stretches in it, if the market were to ever demand it. In the era of the 777x-10, that's no longer an un-imaginably long aircraft.

a reply to: Barnalby

Where do you see the market going? I personally don't think an even larger 4 engine platform is viable for most of the current international airports, let alone the regionals. When I fly on United's 777's only a few of the hubs can even load/unload them properly with multiple jetways, the others suck it up with one.

a reply to: Barnalby

They're reaching the point where they're too big for existing airports. The 7X family had to have folding wingtips to fit in some existing airports. They really can't go a lot larger than the existing large aircraft.

a reply to: Zaphod58

That's a good point that I forgot. I just don't see the viability of a stretched super-jumbo that requires even more infrastructure spend to accommodate what in reality 1.5 airframes could accomplish with less maintenance.

Day 2:

Viva Air Peru - 50 A320s
Aviation Capital - 20 Max 10s
China Aircraft Leasing - 50 Max (undisclosed which models)
RyanAir - 10 Max (undisclosed model)
Avalon - 75 Max 8s
Blue Air - 6 Max (undisclosed), six Max leased (undisclosed), six 737-800s leased
SpiceJet - 50 Q400s
Embraer - 18 aicraft (undisclosed)
Hybrid Air Freighters - 12 Lockheed Martin Hybrid Airships

Day 3, 1700 update stands at:

938
58
48
77.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

I think it honestly hinges on Asia's economic track. The US, with it's trifecta of major carriers, has reached the point where it will never be economically viable for a US carrier to operate anything bigger than a 777 on any international route, because if there's demand for something bigger, that's demand enough for the other two guys to want to get in on that market as well. I wouldn't be surprised though if in the era of the 787, we start seeing UAL/AA/DAL flying more widebodies on the major domestic routes due to crowding issues at airports like SFO/LAG or BOS/LGA. The only way the 380 has a future in the US or Europe is if fuel prices continue to tank while our economy stays strong and you see a spike in international travel by the middle class. That, or if Airbus drops a GTF-powered variant with insane fuel burn numbers that are enough to make the legacy European carriers consolidate flights into the US.

Asia, for me, is the X-factor though, and the 380 still has the best overall range and fuel burn/seat numbers of anything out there, 4 engines be damned. If Asia's economic growth continues trending as it has, there is the potential for the creation of nearly 3 billion people with similar incomes/travel patterns to those of the USA or Western Europe, and due to the population density in India/China, and the few major cities in places like Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, etc, I do think there's real potential IF (and it's a big "if") economic development there continues such that there's demand for flights on par with what we have here. Furthermore, most of those countries are still operating with state carriers, so there's less competition in terms of international travel, allowing carriers to focus on cost savings rather than having to compete with other domestics for the same routes. Finally, the huge distances between China, India, Southeast Asia, and the rest of the world are the one place where passengers are still willing to pay a little extra to fly in the biggest thing possible. That's why even Qantas and South Africa fly 380s. All you need to do is fire up Flightradar or whatever and look at where the 380's are flying, and you'll see that they're all clustered around the population centers in China, Southeast Asia, and Australia.

That market clearly "works" for them, and since that market has a lot of growth potential, I'd say that it's too early to completely write off the A380. The A380 could be like the 737 in the 1980s, or it could be like the DC-10 in the 80s. Looking at how many are already buzzing around Asia now, I've just got a hunch though that the situation is closer to the 737 right when this little airline from Texas started making money on a route model using an airliner design that everyone thought was DOA.

Don't count out that GTF upgrade, either. From everything I've seen, it looks as if the NMA will have a 70-100,000lbf GTF of some sort. That would be the perfect engine for a possible A380NEO, just as the 757's RB211 and its descendants became the go-to engine for the 747 and the A340 in the 80s and 90s.

Speaking of the A380, Emirates wants a clear idea of what Airbus is going to do with the aircraft before they place another order.

Emirates expects Airbus to give it a clear idea of the general future of the A380 program before it will consider another order for the aircraft.

“I want to know what Airbus will do with the aircraft,” Emirates Airline President Tim Clark said on the sidelines of the Paris Air Show. Whatever Airbus decides to do with its struggling widebody “will have major residual value and financial implications for us.” While Emirates is interested in principle in ordering more A380s over time, Clark indicated that the changes alone proposed as part of the A380-plus concept will not do the trick. “They need to put the A380s into other airlines,” he said,

Clark’s comments are the clearest indications yet that Emirates is not willing to support the program alone through additional orders, whatever technical improvements Airbus may suggest. Concerns are mounting that Airbus may ditch the program in the not-too-distant future and Clark is certain that other airlines are not going to change their risk-averse attitude toward large aircraft purchases any time soon. “They are not getting the appetite from others,” Clark said.

aviationweek.com...

a reply to: Zaphod58

I read that earlier. Emirates was more than irked when Airbus (and I cannot say I blame them) refused to build the A380Neo and now he is sending a message to them both verbally and by action. They made a splashy 777X order and instead of ordering more A380's they went with extending the leases on the ones they have.

Airbus has to walk a fine line here as the vast majority of the backlog belongs to this customer. The mods that would make it into a flying cattle car are interesting but contrary to the luxury Emirates built its system on. So I wonder if they are targeting someone else?

a reply to: FredT

I can't say I blame them either. Airbus has flipped and flopped about this, and Emirates is the only one that is even interested in them anymore.

a reply to: Zaphod58

I agree Emirates should be outraged

I think they are much like the A400M trying to kill off a dog. The company in effect fleeced the taxpayers in Europe with a bad projection in regards to hub and spoke traffic and the billions of Euros spent on a program that will never even break even.

So far, the orders stand at 767 for Boeing, 229 for Airbus. There are 336 Max 10 orders, among 15 customers. Of those 199 are conversions of existing orders. Total orders stand at $58.9B at list prices.