But what happens to Australia?

Debating with a colleague today over where Australia stands with Trump.

I'm not talking about direct negotiations or actions, although the TPP will be interesting.. I'm talking about China.

China is Australia's largest trading partner.
Australia's economy is reliant on China
Australia's debt is $400 billion +
Australia's deficit is around $40 billion

Australia's geographical location puts us squarely in the middle of the South China Sea fight. We are the perfect place to put Navy groups. Darwin's already been setup by the Obama admin as a base for US Forces. We are part of the US/AU alliance and we would not dare refuse our big brother in the US. But when it comes to the South China sea, we're in a bit of a pickle..

Trump Administrations position

"We're going to have to send China a clear signal that, first, the island-building stops and, second, your access to those islands also is not going to be allowed,"

China's position

China has enough determination and strength to make sure that his rabble rousing will not succeed. Unless Washington plans to wage a large-scale war in the South China Sea, any other approaches to prevent Chinese access to the islands will be foolish

Our economic impact on China is minimal, they could completely stop all trade with us with a small effect on their local economy yet it would devastate Australia's economy over night. It wont even need to get to Navy vessels in a stand off, China will simply force Australia's hand.

China: '' Prime Minister Turnbull, do you believe in our territorial claim to the South China Sea or will you assist the US with their plans to violate our sovereignty ''

With one answer our future hangs on the line.

I've been watching Trump with great fanfare as he delivers on his promises, I don't see him backing down on South China Sea. He's made a target of China throughout the debates being currency manipulators and for encroaching on islands that are not theirs. I expect him to approach this issue with the same determination.

Its going to come quickly like a slap in the face...

I dont think Americans will care.

They will burn all its allies at this point just so they can chant USA USA USA!

a reply to: crazyewok

I don't quite think that's it.. Americans will care when a few Navy vessels are sunk.

There is a big end game here..

ISIS, in my opinion, is at the same stage the Nazi's were when the US hit Normandy. They're still strong, but their demise is inevitable. Now Mattis, Trump & Putin are running the show ISIS and the middle eastern militant factions are going to be dealt with quickly, harshly and decisively.

China.. China's where everything's going to be focused once ISIS is dealt with!

Well, Australia exports $A90bn of good to China, 75% is iron ore and similar products. Australia receives A$50B of manufactured goods back.

If trade was disrupted between Australia and China, China's ability to actually "make" things would fall to pieces. Sure, Australia would take a big hit, but China would be worse off. No steel equals no nothing.

Australia has a good habit of siding with the right people. In the South China Sea, China is clearly on the wrong side of "right". Only a (ahem) stupid indoctrinated Chinese would think China's claim to a whole sea has any legitimacy. Australia's relations with other countries in SE Asia (Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines et al), plus Japan and others makes for a string of countries who rightly fear China's aggressive territorial expansionism.

originally posted by: crazyewok
I dont think Americans will care.

They will burn all its allies at this point just so they can chant USA USA USA!

You nailed it. This country has it's fat little fingers in nearly every country's business. Whether it's for the better or not is up for serious debate.
However, it boils down to self-centered dominance. Take this hosebeast down, and you go with it. Piss off this hosebeast, you'll pay. Don't bend over and spread 'em when the hosebeast says to, hosebeast will do it for you.

Americans have zero capacity to think outside the borders & consider ramifications, they think being the proverbial bull in the china shop (no pun intended) won't bite us in the ass. We do need to pull back and stop being the greedy global asshole. However, we don't need to burn bridges and yank the rug out from others with no preparation.

a reply to: Agit8dChop

Uncertain times ahead for sure, it really doesn't help either with our prime minister fumbling when Trump was elected, I suspect Trump looks down on him as a stupid little man.

a reply to: Agit8dChop

Turnbull just went and created a new special category visa - 10 years multiple entry with China.

He is sucking up and I am not impressed. It will just lead to more massive land grabs making home ownership impossible for first home buyers.

Don't believe me? Just look at Auckland in NZ and Vancouver.

a reply to: Agit8dChop

China is not shy to use the economic card as they seem to be doing with SK THAAD: Chinese Response and Talks at the Background of Impeachment
journal-neo.org...

a reply to: paraphi

I hear you but Chinas been working for a while in its Iron Ore in Africa, theyve also been stock piling Iron Ore for a while now and have built entire cities that lay empty. They'd have enough to outlast us...

we need to stop pi55in 0ff Indonesia or if war breaks out, Chinas' coast line just got a hell of a lot closer.

Let Taiwan sort it out

a reply to: Agit8dChop

I hear you but Chinas been working for a while in its Iron Ore in Africa, theyve also been stock piling Iron Ore for a while now and have built entire cities that lay empty. They'd have enough to outlast us...

They also have the one belt one road through to Europe with high speed rail and have plenty of places on the rout for minerals/ coal /gas and oil with Iran part of the Russia/Iran/China connection .Russia alone has lots of Iron I do believe and very good relations with China .

originally posted by: paraphi
Well, Australia exports $A90bn of good to China, 75% is iron ore and similar products. Australia receives A$50B of manufactured goods back.

If trade was disrupted between Australia and China, China's ability to actually "make" things would fall to pieces. Sure, Australia would take a big hit, but China would be worse off. No steel equals no nothing.

Australia has a good habit of siding with the right people. In the South China Sea, China is clearly on the wrong side of "right". Only a (ahem) stupid indoctrinated Chinese would think China's claim to a whole sea has any legitimacy. Australia's relations with other countries in SE Asia (Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines et al), plus Japan and others makes for a string of countries who rightly fear China's aggressive territorial expansionism.

Another good point to add is that President Trump is bring a lot of jobs back to America and has decreed that steel manufacturing be done at home from smelting to finished product. I see a huge market for iron ore opening up right there.

Go with u.s = war
Go with china = make money

Best bet learn chinese .

originally posted by: VengefulGhost
Go with u.s = war
Go with china = make money

Best bet learn chinese .

Nah uh.

China has 1 billion people, Australia 23 million. Look at what they are doing over the tasman. They are literally staging an economic takeover.

Last week NZ's largest financial company was sold to them. They were blatantly influencing the last PM (John Keys) They are buying up huge swathes of homes in Auckland and leaving them empty, making Auckland the 4th most expensive city on the planet. They are moving on to Tauranga now and prices are skyrocketing.

China's actual game plan is to make us all economic refugees in our own country.

Go with USA = last hope
Go with China = selling out the country from under our future generations

a reply to: Nyiah

Forgive us for prioritizing our nation's success, prosperity, and our childrens' future participation in the American Dream over the trade concerns of foreign nations. We tried neocon globalism and liberal self depreciation and both FAILED this country, so now we're back to what actually made the USA the shining city on the hill: America first.

Australia: if this experiment works, your economy stands a chance to thrive in a major way by selling all the materials China has paid you scraps for to an America that is once again investing trillions of dollars in solid infrastructure. Imagine if you will Australian iron ore being manufactures into quality US steel instead of it becoming half-assed Chinese steel with a failure rate that makes the Cleveland Browns blush.

originally posted by: markosity1973

originally posted by: VengefulGhost
Go with u.s = war
Go with china = make money

Best bet learn chinese .

Nah uh.

China has 1 billion people, Australia 23 million. Look at what they are doing over the tasman. They are literally staging an economic takeover.

Last week NZ's largest financial company was sold to them. They were blatantly influencing the last PM (John Keys) They are buying up huge swathes of homes in Auckland and leaving them empty, making Auckland the 4th most expensive city on the planet. They are moving on to Tauranga now and prices are skyrocketing.

China's actual game plan is to make us all economic refugees in our own country.

Go with USA = last hope
Go with China = selling out the country from under our future generations

Becoming a pile of radioactive ashes isnt much a future .

a reply to: Agit8dChop

Honestly, Australia has more of a chance with Trump at the helm than they would with Clinton or Bush or Obama.

Things will begin to look up now, count your blessings.

We as an Australian it's fairly clear our MSM wants our population to favor China and dislike Trump. And our PM Turnbull is quite left leaning, even though his party is supposed to be the more right leaning choice of our two major parties. Can you guys imagine that... having essentially two leftist parties. Well that's pretty much what we've got and I'll tell you now it's damn annoying. We've already clearly taken the side of China, the mainstream media speaks as if Trump is the aggressor and China is the good guy, when really Trump is simply trying to even the playing field. Last night the news showed Turnbull meeting with the Chinese PM and discussing how China could replace the U.S. in the TPP deal. Good ole communist China to the rescue folks... that's what we have become, pathetic.

originally posted by: VengefulGhost

originally posted by: markosity1973

originally posted by: VengefulGhost
Go with u.s = war
Go with china = make money

Best bet learn chinese .

Nah uh.

China has 1 billion people, Australia 23 million. Look at what they are doing over the tasman. They are literally staging an economic takeover.

Last week NZ's largest financial company was sold to them. They were blatantly influencing the last PM (John Keys) They are buying up huge swathes of homes in Auckland and leaving them empty, making Auckland the 4th most expensive city on the planet. They are moving on to Tauranga now and prices are skyrocketing.

China's actual game plan is to make us all economic refugees in our own country.

Go with USA = last hope
Go with China = selling out the country from under our future generations

Becoming a pile of radioactive ashes isnt much a future .

Now now, such a Debbie downer. China has about 260 nukes, the USA 6,800.

Who do ya think is gonna win? China would be committing suicide if it launched any.

www.icanw.org...

a reply to: burdman30ott6

Agreed.

ALL western nations were much, much more wealthy when China was closed off to the rest of the world.

China has a right to modernise itself, but it sure as heck does not have the right to plunder other nation's economies by flooding them with poorly made goods at ridiculously cheap prices to kill of local manufacturing.

I feel like I am hitting my head against a brick wall trying to make people wake up and realise what they are really up to.