Is civilisation heading for a COLLAPSE? Historian predicts political turmoil in the 2020s

According to Peter Turchin, Professor of Ecology and Mathematics from the University of Connecticut, using a methematical system called
'Cliodynamics, a relatively new 'transdisciplinary discipline' that treats history as just another science.

Civilization could be heading for a total collapse by 2020 and with Tonald Trumps new position of Potus, the likelihood leans a lot more to the prediction being accurate.

'My model indicated that social instability and political violence would peak in the 2020s,' he says. 'The presidential election which we have experienced, unfortunately, confirms this forecast. 'We seem to be well on track for the 2020s instability peak.' Exactly what will happen when this 'peak' occurs is unknown, and Professor Turchin says the theory does not predict events. but trends. He said the turmoil would be driven by a process of 'elite overproduction' in which the number of rich, elite people in society grows larger and they become ever more distant from those poorer. Read more: www.dailymail.co.uk... tml#ixzz4UwDI6tBQ Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Daily Fail

Theres a lot more information the articles link above and much more on the professors website Perter Turchin.com

If the prediction does indeed come to fruition, it would appear that civil unrest and falling wage and living standards may play a major part in this.

Indeed, never before have I noticed more and more incidents of civil unrest or calls for the people to take action.

Apparently the process has already started but there is still time to change the outcome if our leaders are willing to make changes, so it is not a 100% forgone conclusion.

I suspect ATS will have its own views on this though.

Read Jarred Diamonds, "Collapse".

Best ever on the collapse of many civilizations, historical perspective, warnings about the current era and successes too...

Wiki

You could make this type of prediction every 4 years. Arguably, we're already witnessing it, after decades of corrupt presidents.

Trump will either save the day and be the best thing we've ever had, OR the worst. I see no in between.

I don't think it would be a longshot bet, but I would have to consult with the MEMBER calling itself "The Angel of Light" first to hedge.

a reply to: studio500

With information (accurate or not) comes empowerment (for positive or negative). We see this with the globalization of technology and the real-time communication of information.



That said, there has always been political turmoil, in some way or another and some where or another. Whether it is significantly enough than before to initiate a "collapse" is another matter.

Things will change, they always do. Some will benefit, some will not.

Will civilization "collapse?"

Unlikely.

originally posted by: Liquesence

Will civilization "collapse?"

Unlikely.

Are you speaking locally, or globally?

Globally, no, not likely. The following things that could and LIKELY will during our lifetime wouldn't really mean much to se South America if se it happened here and in Europe:

1. Accelerating Change
2. Economic Collapse
3. Social Group Warfare (SGW)

Note all three can play off of, or drive, or be used to usher and/or 'enhance' the other (all of which I've already been observing for many years).

The irony of the title, Historian predicts future....

I will Trump that and say there's political turmoil happening right now!!!!



EDIT: Im not saying Trump is the turmoil, but in fact the tactics and warmongering of the leftist butt hurts are the ones that are causing the turmoil.

originally posted by: muSSang
The irony of the title, Historian predicts future....

I will Trump that and say there's political turmoil happening right now!!!!

There has always been and for the foreseeable future there will always be political turmoil. We are still a LONG way from finding that right balance where all people can safely exist in relative comfort while those that put in the effort and have the desire can tremendously improve their lot in life and chase their dreams. Of course, for this to happen the psyche of "the people" needs to evolve a bit and those that want to just get by need to stop being jealous of those who do put in the effort, take some risks and excel.

I see no reason to inject Trump into this. There is a case to be made that turmoil is less likely. The Russians certainly seem to think so. In any case, is there a time that is not ripe for turmoil? We get predictions of doom on a daily basis. I see no reason to cast an historian as someone more capable of discerning turmoil than your average pundit.

originally posted by: intrptr

Read Jarred Diamonds, "Collapse".

Best ever on the collapse of many civilizations, historical perspective, warnings about the current era and successes too...

Wiki

Thanks for the link, I certainly will take a look.

a reply to: studio500

it would appear that civil unrest and falling wage and living standards may play a major part in this

I think that by and large a lot of the civil unrest we see (in the United States at least) is manufactured. The fact that "professional protesters" is a thing is one indicator.

The falling wage thing I tie in with the ever-growing automation thing, which is something we collectively are going to have to tackle and, to be completely candid, I don't have many ideas as far as solutions.

The living standards thing I take issue with. In the developed world, even "poor people" live in relative comfort compared to poor people of the past. Our "poor people" have food stamps, welfare, subsidized housing and with few exceptions have a roof over their head, heat in the winter and typically air conditioning in the summer. There are even "free" cell phones offered to people that qualify for other welfare programs. In many/most areas there are "free" school lunch programs for kids.

Two words come to mind when I think of the 2020's... Southern Hemisphere!

Look at the world around you... 99% of the world's turmoil occurs in the northern hemisphere.

I do understand that the largest turd exploding cause a crap storm everywhere. I guess I feel that slow roasting a marshmallow has a better finished cook as compared to sticking it straight into the fire itself. Anyhoo... enjoy the politicians you all voted into office, and I will bring the marshmallows!

a reply to: bgrenual

Brava Well said

a reply to: IgnoranceIsntBlisss

Are you speaking locally, or globally?

Clarity: When I speak of "civilization" I mean global civilization, not a singular nation-state, region, or area.

As I mentioned, there will always be political turmoil, somewhere.

Collapse as a whole? No.

a reply to: studio500

Good Topic.

a reply to: studio500

It is an engineered collapse, engineered by the real NWO, the bildegerbergers and there ilk, they have there safe haven's set up already and hope and plan to pick up the pieces when the smoke clear's, less right's martial law's and totalitarian government's, machine gun protestor's and make the slave's work.

Believe it as it is coming, perhaps even death squad's and death camp's as part of there stalin inspired purge, except they are not commie's they are total ultra right wing supremacists who see themselves as a race apart, superior to all other human being's, they are not of course but it is amazing what a lot of money can do a corrupt ego.

Personally I agree with everything that's been said so far and I appreciate the input.

I can imagine that mathematically there probably is a case to answer her for some major upheaval within the next few years but on the flip-side, upheaval would certainly occur anyway simply due to the law of averages.

The article does go on to state

The academic also predicts 'the stagnation and decline of living standards and declining fiscal health of the state, resulting from falling state revenues and rising expenses' would bring about a potentially terminal slump.

However, Professor Turchin said that his theories could actually help us escape this grim fate by observing trends and stopping them before they cause problems for society.
'The descent is not inevitable,' he continued.
'Ours is the first society that can perceive how those forces operate, even if dimly.
'This means that we can avoid the worst – perhaps by switching to a less harrowing track, perhaps by redesigning the rollercoaster altogether.'


In a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2013, Turchin used maths to predict human activity from 1500 B.C.E. to 1500 C.E.
His aim was to find out what factors are most influential in the rise of fall of civilisations, in the same way that ecologists predict the spread of wildlife populations.
His results revealed military technology and conflict between societies were the two main factors predicting how a state would spread over a map.
When these variables were taken out of the equation, Turchin's ability to describe history dropped to just 16 per cent.
To describe history with maths, the team at the University Connecticut based their method on something called 'cultural multilevel selection.'
This suggests evolution of complex societies was driven by competition between different groups.

I guess only time will tell and perhaps this is indeed a new type of mathematical Doom Porn, as if there isn't enough already in this world.

I certainly hope that with Trump as POTUS, relations with Russia with improve but I do have a niggling thought that Russia may see Trumps willingness to co-operate as a sign of weakness that could easily (In Russias Mind) be taken advantage of.

I certainly think Europe is heating up with a multitude of issues and NATO is certainly on high alert but I remain hopeful that our issues can be resolved peacefully but as China has shown very recently, you simply can't please everyone all of the time.
Lets hope that Trump, who himself was not part of the mathematical predication, really does make the world a better place.

I just hope he doesn't become another Puppet for the powers above, pulling his strings to their tune as in the case of Obama.
Obama offered so much but gave so little.

originally posted by: Liquesence
a reply to: IgnoranceIsntBlisss

Are you speaking locally, or globally?

Clarity: When I speak of "civilization" I mean global civilization, not a singular nation-state, region, or area.

As I mentioned, there will always be political turmoil, somewhere.

Collapse as a whole? No.

Well whatever happens i feel will be Global, can't be avoided. "IF someone Sneezes in NYC, Someone in Switzerland catches cold." (Rollover 1983?) I fear and agree with the 2020ish date mid 2020 at the latest.

As to the Term "Civilization" in a general sense like ants have a civilization, In some higher sense that would take Humans
and i Misplaced my "Gold Jabar Testing Kit" (Dune) so it's hard to tell. Is this planet Europe, US, Asia, etc really Civilized?
I guess the Penguins in Antarctica are.

Do i heard Tina Turner singing in the background.

a reply to: studio500

Excellent thread Thank you.

And i agree with your comments Well said.

According to hillary supporters and liberals in america society collapsed when trump was elected .