a reply to: AndyFromMichigan
Hold on, let me get this straight.
So a relatively quick drive (which uses oil in both lubrication and fuel...and tires...and all of the rubber and plastics...) away from where
thousands of protestors have (some of them, anyway) been conducting themselves like toddlers throwing tantrums with no regard for the law or people's
safety, we suddenly have a leak of crude oil (the exact substance that will flow through the pipeline against which they're protesting) into a
tributary that will eventually make it into the river who's crossing of the protested pipeline is the main focus of their protest?
Let's approach this relatively logically, shall we? (Warning: Math Ahead)
has a map of all of the crude-oil spill from
2010-2015. It says that "over 1,000" spills have occurred from crude-oil pipelines, resulting in a total of "over 7-million gallons" of spilled crude
oil. So, we'll call it 1,050 spills and 7,050,000 gallons spilled. That averages roughly 6,700 gallons per spill.
Now, take into account that our nation has over 2.5-million miles of crude-oil pipeline, with about 1,050 spills over these noted five years, and
we're looking at an average of roughly one spill every 2,400 miles. And, given that this is over a five-year, period, let's average that out to being
one spill every 11,900 miles annually.
Now, if we take the numbers for an average year, we're looking at roughly 210 spills per year, each spilling 6,700 gallons--that's roughly 1.4-million
gallons per year, dispersed across the nation at 11,900-mile intervals over all of our pipelines.
Interstate petroleum pipelines annually transport 11.3 billion barrels of product (31 million barrels per day), of which 52% is crude
oil; the remaining is refined product.
So, with that in mind, 52% of 11.3-billion equates to roughly 5.9-billion gallons of crude oil that travels through the pipelines annually. Looking at
previously noted information, it is determined that roughly 1.4-million gallons are spilled annually. Since I'm a huge fan of percentages over simple
numbers, let's look at the percentage of the crude oil that gets spilled on an annual basis in America: We are looking at 0.024% of the oil that
travels through our country gets spilled/leaked every year, give or take. That is 24-one-hundredths-of-one-percent.
Taking that miniscule percentage into account, we must also let it sink in that there are (on average) 210 spills annually, which is roughly 0.58
spills per day. So, given that so many spills happen annually, and that they happen every 11,900 miles or so, it must be an absolute aligning of every
galaxy in the universe for this to have happened where and when it did. Seriously--let all of that sink in.
Now, I walked us through all of that math in order to get to this point: WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT THIS RECENT SPILL, SO CLOSE TO THE PROTEST, IS MERE
I guess that time will tell if it was sabotage or not, but looking at it through the eyes of probability, I'm going to say that this wasn't a 'normal'
oil spill. And even if it wasn't sabotage, there is no vindication for the protestors, because the odds that a spill will ever happen near or on their
land and affect their drinking water are so tiny that they might as well be statistical anomalies and not given so much consideration as to force a
previously approved project to be rerouted.
edit on 13-12-2016 by SlapMonkey because: clarification (which I'm unsure if it helped)