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Trump and the Bradley Effect

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posted on Aug, 9 2016 @ 09:38 PM
Remember Tom Bradley? He was the black mayor of Los Angeles who ran for mayor in 1982. Every poll showed he would win comfortably, but he ended up losing to Attorney General George Deukmejian, a white Republican. The reason? White voters told pollsters they were voting for Bradley, but pulled the lever for his opponent.

The Trump/Clinton race could be history repeating itself. Trump is such a polarizing figure that (IMHO) he is underpolling by a LOT. I wouldn't venture to guess a percentage. But when one looks at the social media disparity and the disparity in crowds at campaign rallies, it looks like Trump is a lot stronger than he appears in the polls.

How many points is Trump's social desirability bias worth on election day?

Here's a good piece in the New York Times from early May:

posted on Aug, 9 2016 @ 09:56 PM
a reply to: bbarkow

Viva la Trump
2016 and beyond! People are aware her and Obamas policies have destroyed countries, overburdened Europe with refugees, ripped Syria apart, ripped Yemen apart. Threatens war with Russia, with Iran. she is literally a warlord, thief, criminal, bribery whore, serial killer, and laughs about it. It is funny to her.

People see this, and they just want to maintain the peace with their friends and family so do not openly talk about the fact they will vote for the man the media is blatantly trying to kill with propaganda.

posted on Aug, 9 2016 @ 10:40 PM
a reply to: AmericanRealist

I think that his Nationalist Populist message will play very well from those who want to get off welfare (and there are many) to the working class - even into the upper middle class.

You're right. Everybody knows what Hillary is about. Even much of her base will have to hold their collective nose to vote for her. We might be looking at the political surprise of a lifetime.


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