Clinton Surges to 15pt lead over Trump

originally posted by: Gothmog

originally posted by: Swills
a reply to: Gothmog

That's cute, defending your fellow conservative! Well, I hate to break it to you but you both can in fact Google on how polling works without taking a math course.

So , you know I am conservative , how ? I am an equal opportunity offender,. I care not who. However , I will chime in when absolute tripe (know what that is ?) and rhetoric spews forth...doesnt matter who they are...

If you aren't so far left your ear is brushing against your ankle, you might be a Conservative!

a reply to: seeker1963
Yeah , I kinda got that idea . So you noticed it too ? Perhaps Swills should review my posts and REALIZE , not GUESS , who my favorite candidate was...(if I have or had one)
Oh , wait. I event went after my choice a few times..

Back on track
A poll . Doesnt state what type of poll . Doesnt give a breakdown of who , what , when , where , why , or how. Just a poll. But folks believe it .Thats all that matters to the website.

Again, lets make this simple. The parties and the campaigns do their own polling. The call it internal polling because they are not number released to the public. Every choice they make is based on those polls. Where to campaign, where to spend money, what issues are getting traction, what people do not like hearing, where to give up etc.

Public pollsters, some are media, some are private groups, some like the OP are professionals who get hired to poll for everything from popularity of certain products to political polls. All these polls tend to get the same overall results within a certain margins of error.

If the a party or campaign saw a big difference between what their own polls they would call those polls out as trying to manipulate data.

The GOP is not deserting Trump because of public polls. So you know the internal polls are just as bad as what we are seeing public.

The DNC is not making a move to pick up Georgia and Utah because their internal polls are showing anything less than what we are seeing in public ones.

The amount of denial hear is staggering. Did any of you really think that after a week of Trump totally losing his mind and attacking everybody but Clinton that he was going to not lose support? Can anybody who has watch Trump meltdown since the convention honestly say that you think your average American is going to decide that a out of control man lashing out at everybody is somebody they would vote for? I mean really?

I totally believe this. I doubt the media would spread false information to further their own agenda.

originally posted by: MrSpad
Again, lets make this simple. The patties and the campaigns do their own polling. The call it internal polling because they are not number released to the public. Every choice they make is based on those polls. Where to campaign, where to spend money, what issues are getting traction, what people do not like hearing, where to give up etc.

Public pollsters, some are media, some are private groups, some like the OP are professionals who get hired to poll for everything from popularity of certain products to political polls. All these polls tend to get the same overall results within a certain margins of error.

If the a party or campaign saw a big difference between what their own polls they would call those polls out as trying to manipulate data.

The GOP is not deserting Trump because of public polls. So you know the internal polls are just as bad as what we are seeing public.

The DNC is not making a move to pick up Georgia and Utah because their internal polls are showing anything less than what we are seeing in public ones.

The amount of denial hear is staggering. Did any of you really think that after a week of Trump totally losing his mind and attacking everybody but Clinton that he was going to not lose support? Can anybody who has watch Trump meltdown since the convention honestly say that you think your average American is going to decide that a out of control man lashing out at everybody is somebody they would vote for? I mean really?

Yes I will because my other choice is Hillary. The corruption surrounding her is staggering. Yea they may not have pinned any charges on her, but how naive is one suppose to be? I was thinking voting 3rd party but at this point I don't want to waste my vote and give Hillary even that small fraction more of a chance to win.

a reply to: MrSpad

They deserted him from the beginning.

a reply to: MrSpad

The amount of denial hear is staggering. Did any of you really think that after a week of Trump totally losing his mind and attacking everybody but Clinton that he was going to not lose support? Can anybody who has watch Trump meltdown since the convention honestly say that you think your average American is going to decide that a out of control man lashing out at everybody is somebody they would vote for? I mean really?

Alright, then explain how the DNC convention kicks off with one of the biggest political scandals in decades, and even before Khan became the latest rallying cry by the MSM Hillary had a 10 point jump. So you're proposing that PROVEN corruption which causes people to resign at the DNC fueled a 10 point jump for Hillary? Now that's someone trying to pedal bullsh*t. For god's sake they even exposed the MSM collusion with the corruption and no one on the blue side even blinked.

originally posted by: burdman30ott6
Dewey vs Truman part two anyone?

No, wishful versus thinking

originally posted by: MrSpad
Again, lets make this simple. The patties and the campaigns do their own polling. The call it internal polling because they are not number released to the public. Every choice they make is based on those polls. Where to campaign, where to spend money, what issues are getting traction, what people do not like hearing, where to give up etc.

Public pollsters, some are media, some are private groups, some like the OP are professionals who get hired to poll for everything from popularity of certain products to political polls. All these polls tend to get the same overall results within a certain margins of error.

If the a party or campaign saw a big difference between what their own polls they would call those polls out as trying to manipulate data.

The mid terms were suppose to be close. In the end they were way way off. Not even close. It was so bad even Obama admitted it was bad. At that point, nobody wanted him anywhere near their campaigns.


The GOP is not deserting Trump because of public polls. So you know the internal polls are just as bad as what we are seeing public.

The DNC is not making a move to pick up Georgia and Utah because their internal polls are showing anything less than what we are seeing in public ones.

The amount of denial hear is staggering. Did any of you really think that after a week of Trump totally losing his mind and attacking everybody but Clinton that he was going to not lose support? Can anybody who has watch Trump meltdown since the convention honestly say that you think your average American is going to decide that a out of control man lashing out at everybody is somebody they would vote for? I mean really?

Are you a male model? Any chance you were in JcPenny 2006 Winter Collection?

If the poll numbers favored Trump it would be "we told you so" he's on top, no questions asked.

But when the opposition is ahead....rigged, fake, fast and lose with statistics and crybaby BS.

You can bet Trump is watching the poll numbers and ****** bricks!

What do you think he will do when it's 20 pts for Clinton?

I remember people saying Trump could shoot someone in the middle of 5th avenue and his supporters won't mind.

Likewise, Hillary can run mafia style corruption from the USA to Africa to Europe to Russia to the Middle East, gun running, accept bribes from terrorist states, sell off American uranium supplies to the former USSR, steal relief funds meant for Haiti, arm Mexican cartels, make secret payments to Iran to support terrorism, etc, and her supporters won't mind.

Only difference is she DID all those things, AND more, and Trump has shot no one on 5th avenue.

a reply to: muse7

This is a break down of methods and a rating system of pollsters.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com...

The typical sample error with Marist, a college based poll founded in the 70s is about 5. Polls generally have about a 2 point sample error if they are good.

Marist got a good rating, but I would have everyone note that it is NOT an internet inclusive poll. Its an over the phone poll system.

also its only about 88% acurate with presidential elections, or has been thus far.

So they called Trump supporters and asked them what their political leanings are......lol

people who came out of the wood work this election who have been purposely hidden all these years out of distrust and anger....

yeah, they totally would entertain that phone call to give pollsters a better bearing on them...

here is a good report card from last election of which polls were acurate and which showed a bias.

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...

So polls are tools that help us get a bearing on the electorate....but the rise of Trump was not measured properly since at every turn polls were proven wrong. He is not a politician and this is not about an election.

Its a movement. An idea.

Measure that in common sense, not an echo chamber or with typical political tools.

a reply to: muse7

Something to keep in mind:

Nate SIlver, who has called the past two cycles very well has made seven predictions concerning Trump so far, and all of them have been wrong.

So clearly whatever algorithm he is using and has been using is not working correctly this cycle so far. That means this cycle is not like the past two.

originally posted by: JinMI
a reply to: muse7

Fresh off of the conventions and there hasn't been a single debate between the two. Clinton hasn't had a press conference in how long? So I'll ask a simple question. At this point, what difference does it make?

Well, if you're Trump it makes a lot of difference.

originally posted by: Nucleardoom
a reply to: MrSpad

The amount of denial hear is staggering. Did any of you really think that after a week of Trump totally losing his mind and attacking everybody but Clinton that he was going to not lose support? Can anybody who has watch Trump meltdown since the convention honestly say that you think your average American is going to decide that a out of control man lashing out at everybody is somebody they would vote for? I mean really?

Alright, then explain how the DNC convention kicks off with one of the biggest political scandals in decades, and even before Khan became the latest rallying cry by the MSM Hillary had a 10 point jump. So you're proposing that PROVEN corruption which causes people to resign at the DNC fueled a 10 point jump for Hillary? Now that's someone trying to pedal bullsh*t. For god's sake they even exposed the MSM collusion with the corruption and no one on the blue side even blinked.

I can not respond to this because it makes no sense. Are you saying Trumps own polling people are also lying to him as well?

originally posted by: olaru12
If the poll numbers favored Trump it would be "we told you so" he's on top, no questions asked.

But when the opposition is ahead....rigged, fake, fast and lose with statistics and crybaby BS.

You can bet Trump is watching the poll numbers and ****** bricks!

What do you think he will do when it's 20 pts for Clinton?

Trump used to use those polls in every speech and call everybody under him losers. And his supporters cheered. Now suddenly those polls are wrong and it is all a plot on Trump. After all a candidate who appears to be having a melt down should be polling better.

a reply to: muse7

Reuters got popped for polling 5 more Dems than Reps to ensure she would be in the lead. Other polsters do this too.

TRUMP IS DOING FINE. One his way to the oval office.

By November the polls will be reporting Hillary 105 per cent and Trump negative 5 percent(to within plus or minus 4 per cent accuracy

originally posted by: NewzNose
a reply to: muse7

Reuters got popped for polling 5 more Dems than Reps to ensure she would be in the lead. Other polsters do this too.

TRUMP IS DOING FINE. One his way to the oval office.

Yes Trump is doing fine..there's nothing to worry about , hell I hope he continues doing what he's currently doing its working out so well for him...I'm sure by October he could be down 30 points if he keeps it up.