Recession predicted and happening in 2016 by economist across the globe

Hi all,

I'm a big fan of Peter Schiff however he is not the only one calling for a recession and negative interests rates in the US. All year he has been saying the Fed can't raise interests rates and is in fact going to end up back into QE4 by the end of the year and so far he's been right.

the Darker Side of QE : 2016 Recession: Raghuram Rajan



These guys are saying there is a big correction coming because the underlying issues have not been addressed and consumer confidence has not been restored to the market.

Here is Schiff's analysis.



Basically he says the government needs to balance it's budget and raise interests rates.

a reply to: onequestion

This guy knows the market so good he must be a billionaire right? Oh he's not, I'm shocked. Shocked I tell you.

schiff is a perma-bear. his outlook is always long gold, long silver, recession is around the corner.

I agree this long term outlook is grim, and some sort of stimulus is coming, but maybe this thing is going to be allowed to crash. I doubt it though. A part of me thinks that they will hold off this depression/war/mass death with this continual stagnation until their computers have reached the singularity.
I would bet on the house to bail out banks again and avert a sharp depression never seen before
...I leave it there.

a reply to: onequestion

Can't watch video at moment (no WiFi & poor 4g). However if he says the solution to a recession is a balanced budget and higher interest rates then I suspect I would be wasting my time to do so anyway.

Just a personal observation having spent some time in the USA and Japan these last two months.

Stuff I remember costing $2.50 in the states just three years ago now cost $5 in the grocery stores. Japan has always been expensive IMO but even in a 4 or 5 star hotel the art of nickel and dime-ing you to death is alive and well; even a breakfast buffet can cost right at 50$ US.

I feel sorry for those who are working just to make ends meet for the ends seem to be getting further and further apart.

a reply to: SpecialSauce

Keep eating that special sauce. :p You don't have to be an expert in economics to see where the economy is, and is going.


iTruthSeeker

a reply to: onequestion


Have you listened to Gerald Celente? He seems good at these kinds of predictions.


iTruthSeeker

a reply to: onequestion

big correction

love it.

On a serious note...I'm bummed. My country has still not exited the 2008 recession. It appears we will just silently swim into a new one.

Just cant catch a break

originally posted by: iTruthSeeker
a reply to: onequestion


Have you listened to Gerald Celente? He seems good at these kinds of predictions.


iTruthSeeker

If by 'good at' you mean makes lot of them, then yes he is.

On the otherhand if you are looking for a level of accuracy not so much.

a reply to: jellyrev
Silver is up $2 and ounce since the Brexit.

Gold almost $200.

Believe what you want.

a reply to: onequestion

Peter Schiff just predicts doom and gloom, telling people to buy gold. He has been doing it since at least 2008 and he hasn't been right yet. Since someone was so kind to bump the thread from 2009 in this forum recently, here's a piece quoted out of it, where Armageddon was predicted in 2009 by Schiff

www.abovetopsecret.com...

a reply to: Aazadan

He's been right all year.

The Fed should not have raised interest rates on false economic data to make the administration look good

Now they are going to have to backtrack with the correction happening in the EU

Gold has been trending upwards all year and now inflation is going to get worse because the Fed didn't raise rates

He's predicting a drop in interest rates and I agree. The economic data suggest that we have been heading into a recession all year on bad jobs reports and the report is going to be bad again in June. Two more months of this and we are officially in a recession again. Unofficially we've been there all year.

originally posted by: iTruthSeeker
a reply to: onequestion


Have you listened to Gerald Celente? He seems good at these kinds of predictions.


iTruthSeeker

Neither of them have good records. They make a thousand statements with predictions and shape their story to highlight the hits, not counting much fail on their part.

Both of those schmucks have been saying it was right around the corner for the last 8 years now.

a reply to: pl3bscheese

I've been listening to Schiffs podcast for the past few months and he's been dead on the entire time

a reply to: onequestion

Give it a few more years you'll notice the pattern eventually.

a reply to: pl3bscheese

What pattern he's been accurate I don't get it if he's right he's right

originally posted by: onequestion
a reply to: Aazadan

He's been right all year.

The Fed should not have raised interest rates on false economic data to make the administration look good

Yes they should have, it should have started shortly after 2008. Economics is largely pseudoscience, but there are a few things central banks can do. Most of the market moves based on perception rather than reality. If the central bank raises rates it creates the perception that things are getting better. If you never raise rates, you never create that perception, and rates will be forced to stay low, at some point you have to step up and raise them. Considering that lowering the rate is one of the very few tools we have to deal with the next disaster it's important to build that rate up so that we have it available to lower in the future. They should be raising rates by 0.025% every single quarter for the next few years.

Now they are going to have to backtrack with the correction happening in the EU

No they won't. Why would they? People are reacting to uncertainty, not to the economy getting worse. How many people lost jobs due to what happened with the EU? Everyone is still trading with each other, only the governing bodies differ.

Gold has been trending upwards all year and now inflation is going to get worse because the Fed didn't raise rates

Gold is not a solid indicator of anything. It goes up because of the perception that it's a safe harbor to store wealth. Let me ask you this, what do the earnings reports on your gold look like? Gold is a hunk of metal with no measurable information in order to predict it's value other than a vague notion of supply and demand. Lets say a collapse happens, what's a fair amount of gold to chip off a block for a loaf of bread absent any other indicators beyond some vague local notions?

He's predicting a drop in interest rates and I agree. The economic data suggest that we have been heading into a recession all year on bad jobs reports and the report is going to be bad again in June. Two more months of this and we are officially in a recession again. Unofficially we've been there all year.

They won't drop the rates, rates are a political tool.

a reply to: Aazadan

Gold goes up because of inflation and the value of the dollar declining or gold goes down because of the increase in the value of the dollar and supply and demand

The market is far more complicated than confidence there are measure able movements between currencies that are more than anything reflected by internal political changes and market swings dependent on the central banks determination to value or devalue said currency

The interest rates are way more than a polite tool come on dude

The interest rates are what they use to slow economic growth or to increase by increasing availability and devaluing or valuing the dollar

Huge huge economic tools

originally posted by: onequestion
Gold goes up because of inflation and the value of the dollar declining or gold goes down because of the increase in the value of the dollar and supply and demand

Gold like all products is a measure of perception. The market is not infallible, it frequently over and under values certain commodities and eventually corrections occur. Gold is essentially the same thing as tulips. It has no external metrics to determine worth, just supply/demand with the demand created from perception. Gold doesn't deliver earnings reports and it doesn't generate dividends.

Inflation has very little to do with the price of gold. The dollar has been on a slow and steady increase for a while now.

The market is far more complicated than confidence

No, it's really not. The market is all about irrational perceptions. Figuring out those irrational perceptions is very complicated and delves heavily into group psychology rather than the mathematics and logic you would expect, but the overall concept is quite simple.

The interest rates are way more than a polite tool come on dude

What do you think they are? In the past two decades they've been shown to have far less of an impact on an economy than the theory suggested they do. They have some effect of course, but again it's mainly perception. The main effect they have is that higher interest rates correlate to reduced debt and lower interest rates correlate to higher debt and higher spending.