Contingency Planning

Contingency Planning.

This thread is not about building BOB's, BOV's, bunkers, retreats, etc.

This is what happens and you need another plan. Mama Beth's thread about the Donner Party started me thinking about this and overhearing someone talking about bugging out got me busy writing.

Where, why, and how are the questions most do not think about. You have your bug out bags ready, you bug out vehicle is mostly ready (bet you don't have a full tank of fuel), and you like to think your ready.

Some scenarios: (These are in no particular order. And by no means a complete list.)

1. Basic local social breakdown, due to whatever, you have riots in the streets, National Guard, services limited or stopped (this means grocery’s, gas, etc). Will you even be able to get out-of-town due to blocked streets and roads? How about curfew's. Or will you have to drive add across town with everything coming apart around you because that the only way to your safe location.

2. Basic national social breakdown, again due to whatever, (pandemics economic collapse etc) National Guard and the Army out patrolling and controlling, services very limited, rationed, or stopped (this again means grocery’s, gas, etc). Probably you won't be able to get out-of-town due to blocked streets and roads, curfew's. Can you sneak out-of-town on foot or bicycles? Can you travel at night and hide during the day? How far do you have to go?

3. The entire power grid has collapsed (overload, solar flare, terrorism ?). Hope the truck has a full tank of gas, are you like most folks who barely keeps 1/3 of a tank (AAA did a survey a year or so back 1/3 of a tank is what the normal amount 75% of people kept in the tank)? Everyone's heading for the hill too and the Interstate is blocked with wreaks and cars out of gas. That back road you thought no one would use, same thing. No twit'er or farcebook, no cell phone, no TV or radio (yes I know they have backup generators, they need fuel too).

4. Yellowstone erupts. Everything is covered with ash and volcanic winter descends for a few years. Do you have enough food and drinking water? How about fuel to keep warm? Not going to be much of a harvest this year.

5. For any scenario it's time to bug out. Where are you going? You decided to head for the cabin in the mountains, it's a 300 mile drive, and the worst blizzard in memory is between you and the cabin. Society has broken down, no gas, no extra food, no towing services. Can you get there, because you didn't plan on the weather. Same situation except its summer and the worst heatwave ever.

Enter the event you think will happen and have you got a back up plan. Got a back up for the back up? Got as many contingency’s covered as you can think of?

I realize you can't plan on every possible event, but the number of people I have spoken with haven’t considered the basic what if is astounding. One guy had multiple BOB's for himself and family but hadn’t thought of his insulin or his wife’s BP medicine, they could get it where they are going. Uh remember civilization is broke, drug stores will be among the first to go. And he refused to keep his truck fueled as it was too expensive. One woman said she wouldn't ever leave if she couldn't take her family heirlooms along, so they were buying a trailer to haul the junk.

a reply to: LamontCranston


For years, what my wife and I have always done is make sure we have enough food (canned, powdered, etc), water, general essentials and batteries for a thirty day period at "normal usage rates" (which could easily be spread over a ninety day period if things looked bad). Our thinking is that if something happens that after NINETY days, things aren't going back to normal, all bets are off and its every man (family) for themselves.


When we move to our new house (hopefully) this summer there are really only two things that we will be adding to our supplies. The first is a gas generator or (again, hopefully) introducing solar panels (or preferably both).

The other is purchasing our first firearm. I wont go into specifics about this other than to say after speaking with all the gun-people I know, it seems a shot-gun is our preferable option.

Why a gun? Although we didn't have a generator, we were as prepared for anything as possible when Hurricane Sandy came around. In the first few days after the Hurricane, everyone was in the "lets stick together mode" but after days turned into weeks and the power wasn't restored in our area, things started to get a little bit ugly as stores/shops started getting looted. People's generators started getting stolen in the middle of the night. It started to get scary.

For our part, although we didn't have a generator we had an adapter that we were able to plug into our cars' cigarette lighter outlets and converted to a "regular plug" and had extension chords to run up to our apartment to provide light and power to recharge phones and power a mini-dvd-player so our son could watch his DVD's. (Incidentally, not to blow wind up my own skirt but I also used a surge protector to split the power so our elderly landlords had lights and radio as well... as long as we could keep our cars running).

I'm rambling a little bit but if we do actually move to the new house this year, my wife has already said her Christmas present for the family this year will be a shot gun. It won't be kept loaded beside our bed. It will be kept secure and likely away from the shells... but God forbid the stuff hits the fan and we are prepared and those that aren't come to invade and cause us harm in order to take what we have.... lets just say we are thinking about our basic security for ourselves and our son.


Sort of like insurance... all of the above is something we all should have and never have to use.

Save for a small, essentials only, BOB, I don't pack anything. Mainly because the situation can be very fluid and depending on where I'm going and how I'm going to get there, will depend on what I need. Truth is, I live in a very, very small town, at least 40 miles from any bigger city and would likely as not, just stay put. I have weapons, food, ammo, meds, a large garden, fruit trees, raspberries, strawberries, [ fresh fruit could be as good as gold when it comes to barter ] many, many hand tools and several power tools, generator, surplus gas, water source, ammo, [ I know I already said that...can't have too much ] heirloom seeds.......basically everything I would need to survive a shtf.
Thing of it is, I didn't intentionally collect all this for SHTF, I bought all these things over the years, to be prepared to care for my family in the event of storms, bad winter weather, local disaster, etc. I enjoy carpentry, so...lots of tools. I like fresh fruits and vegetables, so I have a garden and can the surplus every year. Plus, it saves money and tastes a helluva lot better than canned food from the store.
I know many say they would try to help any and everyone they could, but my kids and I come first. Period. Being too friendly and letting others know what you have and where you have it or even that you have something they want or need, is going to get you nothing but a bullet in the back.

I have 3 places I can go [ one of them a 200 acre farm with a farm house that can be easily defended ] and have figured out, literally, 12 different ways to get there, only 2 crossing a main road and that being straight across the road, to get to another gravel road. Being in the ass end of nowhere, there are always plenty of back roads/farm roads to travel.

a reply to: LamontCranston


Def bugging out; after a period of waiting out, timing is everything.

One of my biggest fears living in AZ was a retreat plan in the event of anything catastrophic. Absolutely no fresh water, hundreds of miles of desert and cartels to get through just seemed insurmountable.

Glad to be back on the East Coast where there is a good fresh water supply, boats if needed. Antibiotics can be found in some pet stores - they are equivalent to what we take.

I favor the White Mtns of NH, lived there before so I know it fairly well and have relatives there who like me always have plan AB & C, if all else fails there's always the controlled D!

a reply to: LamontCranston

Side note:

After I posted I noticed your name and avatar.

I too know what evil lurks in the hearts of men.

Fantastic!

a reply to: LamontCranston

The only thing you need is to be better armed than the people that stockpile food.

a reply to: eluryh22

Yep all to well some know what evil lurks.

You sound like you have a good plan, my only suggestion would be go with diesel for a generator, better fuel usage, less volatile, and can use bio-diesel if needed.

Good luck.

a reply to: DAVID64

Well planned and prepared from your description. Like you I have never intentionally been a prepper, just over the years that's how its worked out.

a reply to: KTemplar
Never been to the White Mountain area, but if your more than 150 miles from a major city you should be good. The only problem I have about the east or west coast area is the number of people, but I don't like crowds or cities.

a reply to: Metallicus
True, but for a long term survival situation I think small towns and communities may be better off. You can rotate the gurad duties that way.

SPAM REMOVED BY ADMIN

While still in Oklahoma I had multiple plans.. now in Germany I got nothing but sit here drinking scotch till my number is up.

In oklahoma it all depended on when it went south (social order breakdown is considered my most likely shtf), If I am on top of things and aware I bug out ahead of any sort of big city lock down. Once out of the city I had friends in the SE part of the state we could link up with, since I would bring food, water purification and guns and ammo, and me and the wife hunt and fish. If for any reason that direction would not work I would head due east as far as I could on the main roads till I either heard of road blocks and or traffic stopped and then I would go on side roads heading to the Ozarks...

why wifes family is in the back woods of the ozarks and they already offered us 5 acres to put a trailer on, so blood relation plus all the listed above gets us in with a good group of people that already know how to survive.

If for whatever reason I am slow to bug out, or sick or whatever and the fed locks down the city I am prepared to bug in, always had the bags to make my own sand bags (yes that means digging up my back yard, I am good with that to fortify my walls/doors) always had enough food for months, water for weeks... and hopefully things calm down fast, if not I had maps and had routes mapped out to walk out of the city with whatever we could carry.

We have 2 large dogs and were working on teaching them to haul things when we had to move to germany..

well thats a quick run down of what I had planned.

I have no doubt I have missed things, its in my dna..but what I do have gives us a fighting chance.

a reply to: findingnews16
Yep, if you look back to New Orleans and hurricane Katrina. The people knew it was coming and stayed put. Then they waited for "the government to take care of me". It will be the same thing for whatever happens. People in the cities will wait for the government to tell them what to do and take care of them. Waiting to get back to their normal lives, it's gonna be long wait.

a reply to: Irishhaf
Sounds good when you're home in OK. Over there personally I'd stick with good German beer, schnitzel, and schnaps. I do miss German beer.

One guy had multiple BOB's for himself and family but hadn’t thought of his insulin or his wife’s BP medicine, they could get it where they are going. Uh remember civilization is broke, drug stores will be among the first to go. And he refused to keep his truck fueled as it was too expensive

Lets face it, if you NEED insulin post SHTF, you're on borrowed time (and not a lot of it).

BP meds? Depends on the severity I suppose.

Nice thing about a diesel truck (or double-edged sword). They don't do well with only a little gas in them, so you have to keep it pretty full. Personally, I have 3 different tanks I can switch between, so no worries there.

Likely as not, something would happen while I'm at work (50 miles from home). I've got a few alternate routes, but mostly, I'm sure at some point I'll be on foot.

The only thing you need is to be better armed than the people that stockpile food.

Better have a lot of friends then, because those that stockpile likely will, and they'll be armed too. I don't care if you're Rambo, a lone gunman still has to sleep. It's a valid point though, and one people who prep have to consider. While nothing is full-proof, someone trying to get at us post SHTF is sure going to pay in blood for every inch, between traps, range markers, and defenses aimed at one primary goal...to put attackers in a horrible position while putting the defenders in an excellent position. Classic anti-seige strategy.

You step up to climb or cut the fence, only to find your foot impaled on 20 penny nails that have some kind of slimy substance on them. You get a little cut up on the razor wire, but make it over/through the fence, and up to a rock you can hide behind. Only, when you feel it, it feels like paper mache', and then you realize that it's really not cover at all, just a range marker! A bullet rips through it (and you, but you're not out yet). You think, hah, it's dark, let's see them deal with night vision... Then the strobe lights blind you, while my sentries with night vision switch theirs on (after the strobes stop), and light you up. Even more surprises await those getting to the next fence line. (for any who survived and haven't had the good sense to leave yet)....