Reuters: Trump surges in support, almost even with Clinton in national U.S. poll

Donald Trump's support has surged and he is now running nearly even with Democrat Hillary Clinton among likely U.S. voters, a dramatic turnaround since he became the Republican party's presumptive presidential nominee, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday.

The results could signal a close fight between the two likely White House rivals as Americans make up their minds ahead of the Nov. 8 election to succeed Democratic President Barack Obama. As recently as last week, Clinton led Trump by around 13 points in the poll.

In the most recent survey, 41 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, the Democratic front-runner, and 40 percent backed Trump, with 19 percent not decided on either yet, according to the online poll of 1,289 people conducted from Friday to Tuesday. The poll had a credibility interval of about 3 percentage points.
Exclusive: Trump surges in support, almost even with Clinton in national U.S. poll

MAGA!

Meanwhile, over at PredictIt, two people are surging in the Republican vice presidential nomination market:

Newt Gingrich 22% chance

Joni Ernst 16% chance

Who will win the 2016 Republican vice presidential nomination?

My preference is still Mary Fallin as I wrote about here.

For those who are concerned about what a Trump presidency could mean for America, this new interview with Paul Craig Roberts should calm your nerves. He says the US president does not control the government.


www.youtube.com...

a reply to: Profusion

For those who are concerned about what a Trump presidency could mean for America..

Clearly no one cares what a terrible President will mean for America.

Bush Jr...twice. Obama...twice.

People are just plain stupid.

I mentioned this potential effect a couple of weeks ago. Whilst Cruz was in the race , his supporters would conceivably be less less inclined to say Trump and more inclined to say 'neither' when asked the Trump vs Clinton question. Now Cruz is out of the race, the majority of his supporters will be switching to Trump. Some will never do that - the rightscoop readers for example - but they are a minority.

I think this may be one big reason why Trump is now drawing level with Clinton in polling.

a reply to: Profusion

The only thing that bothers me about all of this is Hillary's ghost supporters. I am pretty much the only conservative leaning person in my group of RL cohorts, and among them, not one Hillary supporter.

I ask people I don't even know, not one Hillary supporter.

In my Facebook feed, not one Hillary supporter..

What gives? How is Trump only now breaking even?

Edited to add:

T&Cs = You will not alter political candidate names or party affiliations in order to insult or deride the opposition.

Trump, like any candidate who locks up a parties nomination while the other remains divided should see a big bump, normally it would surge them past the candidate who is still competing in the primary. When Clinton or Sanders on the off chance secures their nomination they will see a surge as well. You will then see two additional surges at the conventions. After all that things tend even back out to where have stood all along. Trump will still have the same problem with women, minorities, young and educated voters and the electoral math still remains a disaster in the making for him.

Good points. But I don't think the electoral math is as bad as it may seem. I think Trump has a good shot at states that otherwise would be blue.

originally posted by: Bobaganoosh


The only thing that bothers me about all of this is Hillary's ghost supporters. I am pretty much the only conservative leaning person in my group of RL cohorts, and among them, not one Hillary supporter.

I ask people I don't even know, not one Hillary supporter.

In my Facebook feed, not one Hillary supporter..

Let me be the first then. I'm not sure I can be called a "Hilary supporter" but the options have been laid out before me, and if my options are Clinton or Trump, I'll vote Clinton without blinking. Find me an established third party candidate who isn't borderline insane, and I'll be happy to look into that person, but I won't hold my breath waiting and I won't "sit this one out."

originally posted by: Gazrok
Good points. But I don't think the electoral math is as bad as it may seem. I think Trump has a good shot at states that otherwise would be blue.

Yep. Last night they say he could possibly flip PA, OH & MI.

Anybody see the movie Idiocracy?

Prez Comacho's middle name is Mnt Dew.......

Cause Trump has electrolytes......

Also worth noting that Trump's favorable rating is soaring among Republicans... it's now at 72.5%
For Republican women it's 63%.

Even when taking into account all voters in the general election, his numbers are climbing. What was once a near 70% unfavorable rating is now down to 56.1% and even going up within the democratic voter base.

That 56.1% overall rating is also ow much closer to Clinton who is at 54.9% unfavorable.

source : reuters polling

Yep. Last night they say he could possibly flip PA, OH & MI.

He's also got a shot at many "purple" states (ones that have, in the past four elections, twice gone red, twice gone blue)....

originally posted by: UKTruth
Also worth noting that Trump's favorable rating is soaring among Republicans... it's now at 72.5%
For Republican women it's 63%.

Even when taking into account all voters in the general election, his numbers are climbing. What was once a near 70% unfavorable rating is now down to 56.1% and even going up within the democratic voter base.

That 56.1% overall rating is also ow much closer to Clinton who is at 54.9% unfavorable.

source : reuters polling

I been thinking about the unfavorable ratings they each have and I think hillary's is more set in stone than Trumps.

Think about it.

Hillary has earned that by being in the public eye for 40yrs.

Trump has just been misquoted and attacked, etc for 10 months.

Hillary's won't change much at all, as to where Trumps numbers can come way down.

originally posted by: burgerbuddy

originally posted by: UKTruth
Also worth noting that Trump's favorable rating is soaring among Republicans... it's now at 72.5%
For Republican women it's 63%.

Even when taking into account all voters in the general election, his numbers are climbing. What was once a near 70% unfavorable rating is now down to 56.1% and even going up within the democratic voter base.

That 56.1% overall rating is also ow much closer to Clinton who is at 54.9% unfavorable.

source : reuters polling

I been thinking about the unfavorable ratings they each have and I think hillary's is more set in stone than Trumps.

Think about it.

Hillary has earned that by being in the public eye for 40yrs.

Trump has just been misquoted and attacked, etc for 10 months.

Hillary's won't change much at all, as to where Trumps numbers can come way down.

Especially when people figure out 95% of the mud slung at him is untrue....

a reply to: Profusion

You're almost guaranteed for the election to be between 48% and 52% on both sides because that's just how people are when they have two choices, things tend to even out. 40 vs 41 is well within that range and expected.

The long and short of it, is to not pay much attention to individual national polls, Presidential elections are usually too close to the margin of error to get good data. On the other hand you can usually get good information about just swing states given enough polls, and that's usually enough to predict how things will turn out.

originally posted by: UKTruth
Especially when people figure out 95% of the mud slung at him is untrue....

People don't care about truth. 95% or more of what's slung at Hillary isn't true either, but people believe it and use it to motivate them because they want to believe it's true.

originally posted by: Aazadan

originally posted by: UKTruth
Especially when people figure out 95% of the mud slung at him is untrue....

People don't care about truth. 95% or more of what's slung at Hillary isn't true either, but people believe it and use it to motivate them because they want to believe it's true.

There is a difference though - 95% of what is thrown at Hillary is unproven, but not necessarily untrue.

With Trump there are very clear lines of attack on his character that are clearly not true, for example I have seen and heard over and over again that he is against Mexican immigrants, that he wants to ban all Muslims... These are things that he has never said or even suggested, yet the media have whipped up the narrative. Eventually more people are going to realize that the specifics of what he is saying don't match the reporting.

New Fox News poll just out...

Trump leads Clinton 45% to 42%. This has changed from 49%-38% in Clintons favour just 2 months ago.

Fox News Poll 18th May

Trumps favorables are now higher than Clintons and his unfavorables lower than Clintons.

Even with women, Trumps unfavorables are getting closer to Clinton 63% vs 53%...

There will some seriously late nights ahead in the Clinton campaign...