Dallas Fed Respondent Sums It Up: “Anyone Saying We’re Not In Recession Is Peddling Fiction”

originally posted by: BeefNoMeat
a reply to: onequestion

Hey genius, the economy hasn't been in recession since 2010. And as I showed you on page one, the labor participation rate has steadily increased since October of 2015. Nice try, but you've been DEAD wrong since you typed your first post. Come on, bring some numbers that back and not contradict your baseless assertions.

Actually what I've said is that I'm basing my analysis on the labor force participation rate and judging by the BLS statistics and not the false paradigm of the unemployement rate which isn't a true measure of our economy due to how the number is calculated.

Anyway if I go off of the total workforce then the total workforce shows that we've been in a recession based on the FACT that less people are working in the US than has been working since the early 70's.

All facts.

a reply to: Cauliflower

But with there being more Millenials than baby boomers you would think that there would be more people in labor pool not less weather boomers retire or not their jobs need to get replaced right?

So wouldn't that indicate that their leaving their jobs and never being replaced?

a reply to: onequestion

Are there more millennials than baby boomers of age to work in the labor force? I know there are more overall, but how many of these millions are below 15 years of age?

originally posted by: pl3bscheese
a reply to: onequestion

Are there more millennials than baby boomers of age to work in the labor force? I know there are more overall, but how many of these millions are below 15 years of age?

Apparently it's from 1981 to 1996 with the youngest of Millenials still in their teens.

But that leaves me still wondering...

Who's doing all the work?

If we've had a decline of millions of people wouldn't that mean the system is coming to grinding halt?

Also I would assume that for the amount of Millenials still not in the workforce there's also equally still the amount of boomers left in the workforce.

There's a discrepancy here in the numbers.

a reply to: onequestion

Do you realize how much under the table work is done in this country? The "gig economy" has been booming for a long while now. People work from their house, or the street corner. Lots of monies flowing, but only so much on the books. That goes for the highest and lowest of us all.

originally posted by: pl3bscheese
a reply to: onequestion

Do you realize how much under the table work is done in this country? The "gig economy" has been booming for a long while now. People work from their house, or the street corner. Lots of monies flowing, but only so much on the books. That goes for the highest and lowest of us all.

Well with the drug war and construction that very well may be true.

Has there been a massive shift to under the table work and contract work that isn't reflective in the data were using in our debates?

What does that indicate about the overall health of the economy?

a reply to: onequestion

You see all the asians cropping up all over? I sure as hell do in my area. Many of the first generation legal or not are under the table building up to support a legit high income years down the road, or with their offspring. Maybe they need to afford education, a private school or uni for their family, maybe bring more here, maybe support there, or maybe they like booze, gambling, strippers, and other fancies. Plenty of reasons to detach from the system at least temporarily when the going gets rough.

So tough times, high hopes, and demographic shifts, at least a few of the many considerations.

What does it say about the economy? It says that it's not all accounted for, and can't be properly forecast right now. Whatever faith, and stability was once there in various metrics has been realized as obsolete tools to properly assess, in my view. Those who best realize this are game to invent new tools, and position their selves wisely.

a reply to: onequestion

Prove it. You can't. You're just a lackey.

a reply to: pl3bscheese

Totally agree with analysis.

originally posted by: BeefNoMeat
a reply to: onequestion

Prove it. You can't. You're just a lackey.

You sure you have a PHD?

Oh your a prime example of everybody wins nobody loses aren't you?

a reply to: onequestion

It's a "PhD". And it's "you're". Just stop. You're embarrassing yourself.

a reply to: BeefNoMeat

Different strokes for different folks.

In my mind a grammar nazi is embarrassing their selves for bothering to point out what is irrelevant. You have comprehended him, why bother?

Does your mind not operate well with chaos in the surroundings? I thrive in chaos, and realize the importance of errors in the process of creation.

You a funny guy! Not that I agree or disagree much more between the two of you.

a reply to: pl3bscheese

In my mind falling to acknowledge you were wrong is much more egregious - go revisit the first page of the thread.

Wanna challenge any part of my mind on economics? Go ahead. I'll beat you like a rented mule. I'm waiting (as the all-ever-knowing-onequestion).

originally posted by: pl3bscheese
a reply to: BeefNoMeat

Different strokes for different folks.

In my mind a grammar nazi is embarrassing their selves for bothering to point out what is irrelevant. You have comprehended him, why bother?

Does your mind not operate well with chaos in the surroundings? I thrive in chaos, and realize the importance of errors in the process of creation.

You a funny guy! Not that I agree or disagree much more between the two of you.

To be perfectly honest I think this is the first time we've found common ground in a while.

Don't worry about the other poster he won't last long here.

a reply to: BeefNoMeat

Why would I bother trying to best someone who believes they are an expert in a field?

Run along, kid.

originally posted by: pl3bscheese
a reply to: BeefNoMeat

Why would I bother trying to best someone who believes they are an expert in a field?

Run along, kid.

You can't debate someone who won't present an argument it's increasingly difficult.

I'm praying that our institutions are producing a higher quality product on a more regular basis than this.

Otherwise I'm sad, very sad.

a reply to: pl3bscheese

You would be wiser than arguing with someone more schooled in said field, child.

originally posted by: BeefNoMeat
a reply to: xuenchen

Mini-recessions? Seriously?? Good luck peddling that nonsense. A recession qualifies as 4 consecutive quarters or more of negative GDP growth. The US hasn't had one such quarter since 2011; moreover, it has averaged 2.4% annual GDP growth from 2011-2015. Don't believe me and instead some protester/respondent, take a read here: Annual US GDP Growth: 2011-2015

Education, and not partisanship helps. The US economy is still the biggest in the world and nowhere near a recession. Maybe a view/read of yesterday's panel discussion with Yellen, Bernacke, Greenspan and Volcker would be of interest to you?

Hahaha what a joke. You really believe that horsecrap? Why don't You get on the internet and do a little research on inflation. Most moderate economists consider 6% inflation per year as being moderate. So if We inflate our currency 6% a year then a 2.4% growth is actually -3.6% growth.

a reply to: jkm1864

Don't even try to say that they are inaccurately measuring inflation using an outdated model.

I look at inflation in terms of actual purchasing power.

How many hours does it take to work for item A B and C.

Then we get a clearer picture of the real impact of inflation especially on wages.

They must not teach that in school. Not really worth the 120k if you ask me.

originally posted by: jkm1864

originally posted by: BeefNoMeat
a reply to: xuenchen

Mini-recessions? Seriously?? Good luck peddling that nonsense. A recession qualifies as 4 consecutive quarters or more of negative GDP growth. The US hasn't had one such quarter since 2011; moreover, it has averaged 2.4% annual GDP growth from 2011-2015. Don't believe me and instead some protester/respondent, take a read here: Annual US GDP Growth: 2011-2015

Education, and not partisanship helps. The US economy is still the biggest in the world and nowhere near a recession. Maybe a view/read of yesterday's panel discussion with Yellen, Bernacke, Greenspan and Volcker would be of interest to you?

Hahaha what a joke. You really believe that horsecrap? Why don't You get on the internet and do a little research on inflation. Most moderate economists consider 6% inflation per year as being moderate. So if We inflate our currency 6% a year then a 2.4% growth is actually -3.6% growth.

GDP figures quoted are almost always real (adjusted for inflation) not nominal.