Wisconsin GOP Primary : Why is it being pushed as a make or break?

originally posted by: Indigo5

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Indigo5

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Indigo5

originally posted by: UKTruth

I suspect that a brokered convention will be the outcome, but it won't be because of Wisconsin.
I rather think it will be because Kasich will draw delegates in states where Trump would otherwise break 50% and take the majority of delegates.

I think that inaccurately presumes that Kasich voters would go Trump.

Trumps unusually high "unfavorable" ratings...I think the highest amongst either Dems or GOP running...means that it is not likely that voters would easily switch to a Trump vote absent Kasich..

Trumps hoped to dispense with the contested convention, but that no longer looks likely..

Honestly..all politics and ideology aside? Absent him getting 1237, the GOP will nominate someone else, possibly Cruz while holding their nose..

Trump loses...Either the nomination, as an independent or as the GOP Nominee in a general election...

All polls have been hugely consistent in this prediction far beyond any margin of error..

He has no path to victory...Forget for a moment that he has mobilized Mainstream GOP, Dems, Minorities and hell even Pro-Life groups to turn against him in recent months..

Lets just think about Women...They constitute the majority of the country..

And that CNN poll is not an outlier. Virtually every poll done in the last month shows him with gigantic negatives among women: 67 percent (Fox News), 67 percent (Quinnipiac University), 70 percent (NBC News/Wall Street Journal), and 74 percent (ABC News/Washington Post). And since the Democratic Party already has more women voters than the Republicans do, this translates into a serious disadvantage in the fall.[/ex]
www.salon.com...

Overall, 73% of female voters in a mid-March CNN/ORC poll said they had a negative view of Trump, just 26% view him positively. That unfavorable number is up 14 points in the last few months: from 59% in December and 67% in late February. Even Republican women, who mostly have favorable views of Trump, are more likely to report unfavorable opinions now than they were a few months ago, 39% unfavorable in March vs. 29% in December. Among men, however, there has been no such shift, with 54% holding an unfavorable view in December, 52% in February and 57% now.

www.cnn.com...

He can not win...this is not political it is math...

In New York, Trump is on the cusp of 50% already (over it in some polls). Without Kasich in the race, he would break 50% easily.
Cruz is currently polling at 20%. He would need to make up 30% just to hold Trump below the 50% mark. In other words he would need all of Kasich votes, all the undecided and some of Trumps votes. Its very likely Trump would sweep New York with Kasich out of the race, like I said.

Your point is more valid in states where Trump is not as close to 50%, but particularly on the East Coast, Kasich is there to hold Trump down. He has even said so himself, claiming Trump wins if he drops out.

In terms of the presidential nomination, you and I are in agreement. Trump has no path and never did.

Right...Kasich is a spoiler for both Trump and Cruz...more so Cruz since he is the planned compromise in a contested convention.

Listen carefully to this prediction...At the GOP convention you will see unprecedented security...and they will not give the nomination to Trump. Absent a majority of delegates at 1237, they will give it to Cruz. Cruz will lose by a slim margin in the general election to Hillary.

Stats, Instinct, Projections...I don't see it turning out any other way.

I don't see any need to have a spoiler for Cruz. He has no chance of 1237. I do think it will eventually be a contested convention though and yes, there is no way Trump will will that.

At that point trump drops out or goes 3rd party...either way, insufficient to win the general election.

He then can make a living on the news media circuit? he will be too controversial for mainstream networks..

he hasn't released his financials not because he is being audited, but because his declared worth is bloviating.

I have heard it described by insiders, that when declaring his net worth he assigns a net worth to the "Trump" name/brand in the Billions..

No doubt he is wealthy. Just not what he has claimed..

I think this campaign will cost him...depending on how much he can walk away with from the "loans" to his private entities he has gotten for the campaign. He has taken contributions from wealthy backers...but done so in a manner circumventing campaign finance regulations.

Trump is approaching a net loss..which I think is the most important factor in his running.

I doubt he will spend his time on the fringe media circuit lol. Whether he has a net worth of $5bn or $10bn hardly matters.
His success in life does seem to get under his detractors skins - it's as if dreaming that away from him, they can somehow feel good about themselves.

The thought process is that losing Wisconsin along with the terrible downward spiral Trumps campaign has been on that it makes it more likely that Trump will fail to win the plus 50% needed to win all the NY delegates. If they are split Trump would the need to win 60% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination which much better than has done before. If he loses Wisconsin but, takes all the NY delegates he has a hard road but, much more realistic. Wisconsin i more about momentum leading into NY. In a week where he seems to have chased away his remaining female supporters, suggested the US would be more secure if more nations had nukes and is polling worse than any Presidential candidate since they started polling adding on losing Wisconsin is seen as the likely final nail in the coffin.

What the GOP does from there who knows. They do not care much for Cruz either and while he does not lose as badly as Trump he still loses pretty badly. They could put up a moderate and hope that they catch enough independents to make up for the loss of Trumps supporters. Unlikely they would win with that move either but, they might save the Senate.

With Trump we see many parallels to Goldwater in 1964. Hated by Democrats and Independents and alienating a large part of the Republican Partly Goldwater slipped barely into the 1964 election only to lose to Johnson 486 to 52 in the electoral college. If the GOP had nominated a moderate this year to go up against a vulnerable Clinton they would have had a strong chance at a win. In many ways only Trump taking the nomination has made Clinton the easy winner.

It's amazing that RealClearPolitics.com has Trump up to within 2 percentage points of Cruz in Wisconsin now. I bet Donald is thankful that is particular week is almost over! Or maybe not. He was 10 points behind Cruz when the week started, LOL.

originally posted by: MrSpad
The thought process is that losing Wisconsin along with the terrible downward spiral Trumps campaign has been on that it makes it more likely that Trump will fail to win the plus 50% needed to win all the NY delegates. If they are split Trump would the need to win 60% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination which much better than has done before. If he loses Wisconsin but, takes all the NY delegates he has a hard road but, much more realistic. Wisconsin i more about momentum leading into NY. In a week where he seems to have chased away his remaining female supporters, suggested the US would be more secure if more nations had nukes and is polling worse than any Presidential candidate since they started polling adding on losing Wisconsin is seen as the likely final nail in the coffin.

What the GOP does from there who knows. They do not care much for Cruz either and while he does not lose as badly as Trump he still loses pretty badly. They could put up a moderate and hope that they catch enough independents to make up for the loss of Trumps supporters. Unlikely they would win with that move either but, they might save the Senate.

With Trump we see many parallels to Goldwater in 1964. Hated by Democrats and Independents and alienating a large part of the Republican Partly Goldwater slipped barely into the 1964 election only to lose to Johnson 486 to 52 in the electoral college. If the GOP had nominated a moderate this year to go up against a vulnerable Clinton they would have had a strong chance at a win. In many ways only Trump taking the nomination has made Clinton the easy winner.

The female vote will be interesting - as of Weds he had a massive lead over his rivals in the national polls in terms of the female vote, but seems to be behind big in Wisconsin. May just be a state thing or it may spread to New York...

originally posted by: carewemust
It's amazing that RealClearPolitics.com has Trump up to within 2 percentage points of Cruz in Wisconsin now. I bet Donald is thankful that is particular week is almost over! Or maybe not. He was 10 points behind Cruz when the week started, LOL.

RCP has him just over 3 points down as an average, but two of the last 3 polls have Cruz 10 points up...

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: MrSpad
The thought process is that losing Wisconsin along with the terrible downward spiral Trumps campaign has been on that it makes it more likely that Trump will fail to win the plus 50% needed to win all the NY delegates. If they are split Trump would the need to win 60% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination which much better than has done before. If he loses Wisconsin but, takes all the NY delegates he has a hard road but, much more realistic. Wisconsin i more about momentum leading into NY. In a week where he seems to have chased away his remaining female supporters, suggested the US would be more secure if more nations had nukes and is polling worse than any Presidential candidate since they started polling adding on losing Wisconsin is seen as the likely final nail in the coffin.

What the GOP does from there who knows. They do not care much for Cruz either and while he does not lose as badly as Trump he still loses pretty badly. They could put up a moderate and hope that they catch enough independents to make up for the loss of Trumps supporters. Unlikely they would win with that move either but, they might save the Senate.

With Trump we see many parallels to Goldwater in 1964. Hated by Democrats and Independents and alienating a large part of the Republican Partly Goldwater slipped barely into the 1964 election only to lose to Johnson 486 to 52 in the electoral college. If the GOP had nominated a moderate this year to go up against a vulnerable Clinton they would have had a strong chance at a win. In many ways only Trump taking the nomination has made Clinton the easy winner.

The female vote will be interesting - as of Weds he had a massive lead over his rivals in the national polls in terms of the female vote, but seems to be behind big in Wisconsin. May just be a state thing or it may spread to New York...

Trumps disapproval rating among all women voters is 70%. That is unheard of and it is number that keeps growing.

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: carewemust
It's amazing that RealClearPolitics.com has Trump up to within 2 percentage points of Cruz in Wisconsin now. I bet Donald is thankful that is particular week is almost over! Or maybe not. He was 10 points behind Cruz when the week started, LOL.

RCP has him just over 3 points down as an average, but two of the last 3 polls have Cruz 10 points up...

OK.. Thanks. I was just looking at the aggregate number. Didn't know that it was composed of 3 separate polls.

I don't think you are understanding what Indigo5 was saying. Cruz does not need 1237 delegates to be the nominee if there is a contested convention. The party can hand the nominee seat to anyone they want to in a situation like that.

a reply to: Indigo5

I don't think Trump is going to take California.

a reply to: MrSpad

The abortion thing hurt him pretty bad he needs to do something about that.

He's the only the person running who knows how the economy worksZ

originally posted by: defiythelie
I don't think you are understanding what Indigo5 was saying. Cruz does not need 1237 delegates to be the nominee if there is a contested convention. The party can hand the nominee seat to anyone they want to in a situation like that.

I am fully aware of the convention rules.
The article is about Trumps path to 1237 and the effect of Wisconsin.
Cruz has no path to 1237 - his path is through a contested convention if he and Kasich can hold Trump below the threshold.

originally posted by: onequestion
a reply to: Indigo5

I don't think Trump is going to take California.

It's going to be close - depends a lot on the results before I think. I suspect Trump needs to switch his game up now.

I think Trump will do well in WI and Cali.

He will take the east coast easy.

Cruz has his own women problems to worry about.

Kasich is just a douche that takes money from Soros.

Just my opinion.

originally posted by: burgerbuddy
I think Trump will do well in WI and Cali.

He will take the east coast easy.

Cruz has his own women problems to worry about.

Kasich is just a douche that takes money from Soros.

Just my opinion.

WI looks done - at a district level Cruz is winning all but one in the polls and miles ahead in Milwaukee with over 50% compared to Trumps 15%

Of the 42 delegates, Cruz will take 18 for the state win and 7 of the districts ( a further 21), giving him 39 of the 42 available delegates. Trump may actually get 0 delegates. Tuesday is going to be the worst night in the election so far for Trump. We'll see if he can recover. His problem is going to be that the effect of the big loss is going to be magnified by a factor of 100 by the media. If his support stays with him and he picks up his game, it's possible to make it up in the remaining states, but it is going to be very hard for him from here on in.

The best bet might be to drop out and set up a 3rd party run now.

originally posted by: onequestion
a reply to: MrSpad

The abortion thing hurt him pretty bad he needs to do something about that.

He's the only the person running who knows how the economy worksZ

He knows to exploit the system. I would not hire a criminal as a police chief. You can literally trace his fortune to inheritance handed to him by his father who built a business raking in money from the government's FHA program post WW2 and then exploiting the bankruptcy laws repeatedly. (A) Gather investors money (B) Pay yourself the bulk of that money (C) declare bankruptcy for that company/investment vehicle and run with the money.

originally posted by: onequestion
a reply to: Indigo5

I don't think Trump is going to take California.

California elected Arnold Schwarzenegger as governor. California citizens like pi-zazz and celebrity status. Trump has a higher quotient of those qualities than Cruz, don't cha think?

originally posted by: Indigo5

originally posted by: UKTruth
fivethirtyeight.com have a good delegate tracker and projection for each candidate.
At the moment it says that Trump is at 95% of where he needs to be to end up with 1237 delegates.

To put it in delegate terms Trump is 37 delegates behind where he needs to be at this time if he were on track to get to 1237.

The other two are out of the race in terms of getting 1237

Right now your source has Trump at 94% chance of losing Wisconsin.

If he loses Wisconsin he virtually has to win everywhere else without stumble or error to reach 1237.

He is 95% of target now, but after Wisconsin that margin will grow, not shrink.

The GOP want a contested convention...really bad...they don't care about trump having the most delegates...if he doesn't get the majority (1237) then it will be a contested convention.

That is why Wisconsin is important to Trump...it will derail his chances at 1237 unless he sweeps the remaining primaries.

If they go with someone other than Trump in a contested convention the Republicans will effectively lose every single Trump voter in the foreseeable elections. I'm not saying they will go Democrat I'm just saying they won't vote

originally posted by: LinkZelda

originally posted by: Indigo5

originally posted by: UKTruth
fivethirtyeight.com have a good delegate tracker and projection for each candidate.
At the moment it says that Trump is at 95% of where he needs to be to end up with 1237 delegates.

To put it in delegate terms Trump is 37 delegates behind where he needs to be at this time if he were on track to get to 1237.

The other two are out of the race in terms of getting 1237

Right now your source has Trump at 94% chance of losing Wisconsin.

If he loses Wisconsin he virtually has to win everywhere else without stumble or error to reach 1237.

He is 95% of target now, but after Wisconsin that margin will grow, not shrink.

The GOP want a contested convention...really bad...they don't care about trump having the most delegates...if he doesn't get the majority (1237) then it will be a contested convention.

That is why Wisconsin is important to Trump...it will derail his chances at 1237 unless he sweeps the remaining primaries.

If they go with someone other than Trump in a contested convention the Republicans will effectively lose every single Trump voter in the foreseeable elections. I'm not saying they will go Democrat I'm just saying they won't vote

No they wont...They will pick them back up with a more palatable candidate next election. The people that follow Trump have serious hate for Liberals...they vote GOP if given the slightest excuse.

But more to the point...even if all Trump supporters go Cruz and vote...The GOP will still lose because Trump has damaged the GOP brand for this election cycle.

The GOP needs to rebuild and try again. Cruz can collect a fair amount of voters..but the GOP has already lost a chunk of women, minorities and the middle for this election cycle.

The latest Wisconsin poll from CBS now has it at Cruz 43 Trump37
Getting a little closer...

originally posted by: Indigo5

originally posted by: LinkZelda

originally posted by: Indigo5

originally posted by: UKTruth
fivethirtyeight.com have a good delegate tracker and projection for each candidate.
At the moment it says that Trump is at 95% of where he needs to be to end up with 1237 delegates.

To put it in delegate terms Trump is 37 delegates behind where he needs to be at this time if he were on track to get to 1237.

The other two are out of the race in terms of getting 1237

Right now your source has Trump at 94% chance of losing Wisconsin.

If he loses Wisconsin he virtually has to win everywhere else without stumble or error to reach 1237.

He is 95% of target now, but after Wisconsin that margin will grow, not shrink.

The GOP want a contested convention...really bad...they don't care about trump having the most delegates...if he doesn't get the majority (1237) then it will be a contested convention.

That is why Wisconsin is important to Trump...it will derail his chances at 1237 unless he sweeps the remaining primaries.

If they go with someone other than Trump in a contested convention the Republicans will effectively lose every single Trump voter in the foreseeable elections. I'm not saying they will go Democrat I'm just saying they won't vote

No they wont...They will pick them back up with a more palatable candidate next election. The people that follow Trump have serious hate for Liberals...they vote GOP if given the slightest excuse.

But more to the point...even if all Trump supporters go Cruz and vote...The GOP will still lose because Trump has damaged the GOP brand for this election cycle.

The GOP needs to rebuild and try again. Cruz can collect a fair amount of voters..but the GOP has already lost a chunk of women, minorities and the middle for this election cycle.

In my view the most significant backlash against the establishment started in earnest in 2012. It was there before but not big enough to make a political impact...not withstanding Perot's independent push in 1992 (interestingly Trump is making some of the same errors it seems).
What started in 2012 with about 20% support has grown to 40% in the GOP and it's going to get stronger.

I think the ONLY way for the GOP establishment to hold this down is select Trump as the nominee (if he has the most delegates) and let him fail in the General. I just don't think they have realised yet that this is not about Trump. He really is just the face of a lot of unhappy voters.

Not giving Trump the nomination will lose the election for the GOP and they will be blamed for it when Hillary gets elected. It will add fuel to the anti establishment movement for 2020, at which point I doubt anything will be able to stop it. Can you even imagine another 4 years of broken promises on top of the anger that already exists in the country? Not pretty.