Trump's Probability of an Insufficient Delegate Count and A Contested Convention

While the Trump campaign steamrolls forward, the question of gaining the number of delegates prior to the Republican Convention becomes a major factor. Trump has secured 621 delegates as of 48 hours ago, and needs to hit the magic mark of 1237 to cinch the nomination. Of the total 2472, 60% have been awarded, with Trump garnering approximately 47%. Even if he continues at that pace, he will fall short by 100, resulting in contested convention. The process will proceed as follows:

If Trump doesn't get to 1,237, delegates at the convention will cast ballots. If no one reaches the 1,237 threshold on a first ballot, Trump, Cruz and Kasich can try to pick off each other’s delegates. That makes it important for the campaigns to try to solidify loyalty among those serving as delegates at the convention. The candidates also could make the play for the group of Rubio delegates who can be released by the candidate and will go to the convention unbound ahead of the first ballot.

thehill.com...

Speaker Paul Ryan, who said there's no chance he'll be the GOP nominee, acknowledged the increasing likelihood of a brokered convention.

“Nothing has changed other than the perception that this is more likely to be an open convention than we thought before,” Ryan, the ceremonial chairman of the convention, told reporters. “We’re getting our minds around the idea that this could very well become a reality and that those of us who are involved in the convention need to respect that.” The Speaker’s comments Thursday suggest party leaders are beginning to prepare for a floor fight at the convention at Quicken Loans Arena in downtown Cleveland. When The Hill asked him in January about a possible contested convention, Ryan dismissed the idea. “I think it’s ridiculous to talk about it,” he said at the GOP retreat in Baltimore

thehill.com...


It must be noted that Curly Haugland, a Republican National Committee member, says the nomination process is pretty straightforward: The party, not the voters, chooses the nominee.In an appearance on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday morning, Haugland, a North Dakotan and current member of the RNC's Rules Committee, said that any assumption otherwise is misguided."That's the problem: The media has created the perception that the voters will decide the nomination," he said. He went on: "Political parties choose their nominee, not the general public, contrary to popular belief."

Finally, a post that gives historical perspective as to a contested convention bears importance on the conversation:

Drumpf can have more delegates than Cruz, Rubio or Kasich on round one at the convention but if he walks in with less than 1,237, then just as in 1860 it goes to round two where delegates are no longer bound to any candidate. In 1860 in Chicago at the Republican Party's second convention no less, they had a contested/brokered convention. Imagine that. Seward had 173 and 1/2 to Lincoln's 102 but it still went to round 2 because neither had the magic number. Lincoln's managers (Davis and Judd) maneuvered and got Lincoln the magic number on round three. If Drumpf walks in with less than 1.237 (magic number in 2016) he can say he has more than the others but Seward had more and it went to round two anyway. Same for today if you don't have the magic number. On round two, if Cruz, Kasich and Rubio's delegates were a combined total of 1,237 on round one, their delegates can end up being cobbled together in round two or three and if they come to an agreement of some sort it is over. Period.

thehill.com...
www.huffingtonpost.com...
thefederalist.com...

One things for sure: the Republican Convention is sure to be a barn-burner. Between Establishment Republicans, rich backers plying influence, and the possibility of backroom deals vying for position for the nomination, the event will have all the brouhaha of a WWE extravaganza.

So last time there was a brokered convention there was also a civil war?

Damn...

originally posted by: onequestion
So last time there was a brokered convention there was also a civil war?

Damn...

Trump predicts "riots" if there's a brokered convention.
www.cnn.com...

Double damn...

What a complete and utter idiot.

That brings the question "why does the GOP want Hillary to win"/

It's going to get wonky. In some states, the delegates are required by law to vote according to the popular vote, and in at least one that I know of, the delegates can vote any way they choose regardless of what the people want. So, Haugland may be right in that it is The Party that ultimately chooses the nominee. The People are not going to like that one bit.

The whole world is going nuts over the fear of a Trump presidency. That's why they are pushing the misinformation and hyperbole.

Any US presidential race is hot-ticket international news. But this one comes at a time of deep global insecurity. Mr. Trump’s status as an unknown quantity feeds nations’ worries about everything from the continuation of their trade deals to military ties.

www.csmonitor.com...

If Trump gets in, we are going to find out exactly how we taxpaying Americans have been getting screwed blue and tattooed.

We are going to find out whose pockets have been lined by what countries, and how our trade deals and military deals have robbed the American people blind.

I predict some politicians are going to go to jail, and the World Courts are going to be busy for the next decade or two.

The International criminal cabal is about to be exposed and DJT better double down on his security, because some powerful people are crapping in their pants right now and their nice little world order is going to change.

Check out this article:

www.nytimes.com...

I don't think anyone knows what is going to happen. People have been predicting all sorts of things since the beginning. Most of them have been wrong. Who knows? I'm just going to sit and watch as it unfolds. I'm making no predictions.

originally posted by: Khaleesi
Check out this article:

www.nytimes.com...

I don't think anyone knows what is going to happen. People have been predicting all sorts of things since the beginning. Most of them have been wrong. Who knows? I'm just going to sit and watch as it unfolds. I'm making no predictions.

Based on current delegate counts and the projections needed, Trump will in all probability fall short. The likelihood of his not securing the nomination prior to the convention is a real possibility, hence this discussion.

a reply to: FullBloodedNative

I'm willing to go out on a limb here and say he just doesn't want to name names of his current advisors. I would imagine anyone he named would be ostracized by the establishment. If they are currently relying on establishment types for jobs, it would be risky to associated with Trump. I do know Sessions has been recently officially named as an advisor.

a reply to: Boscowashisnamo


I understand what you are saying but did you actually read the article? It has an interactive graphic. It is interesting because it has the ability to assign percentage of support to the 3 remaining candidates and show the resulting delegate projections based on the rules of each of the states.

originally posted by: Khaleesi
a reply to: Boscowashisnamo


I understand what you are saying but did you actually read the article? It has an interactive graphic. It is interesting because it has the ability to assign percentage of support to the 3 remaining candidates and show the resulting delegate projections based on the rules of each of the states.

Sure did read the article. The premise that Trump's current path will lead him to get the delegates needed is predicated on winning states like NY and especially California. I wouldn't bank on him winning the latter, and if he can't, his nomination bid is anything but secured.

a reply to: Boscowashisnamo


I hear ya! I'm just not making any predictions either way. So many predictions this political season and most have been wrong. Especially those predicting his down fall. Predictions from supposed experts, no less. What's gonna happen? I have no idea. I'm just sitting back and watching.

originally posted by: onequestion
So last time there was a brokered convention there was also a civil war?

The last brokered convention was 1976.

originally posted by: Khaleesi
a reply to: Boscowashisnamo


I hear ya! I'm just not making any predictions either way. So many predictions this political season and most have been wrong. Especially those predicting his down fall. Predictions from supposed experts, no less. What's gonna happen? I have no idea. I'm just sitting back and watching.

I will go on record as being wrong when this race started, predicting Trump was pumping up his "brand" and when the publicity stunt got stale, he would drop out. Boy was I wrong...

originally posted by: Boscowashisnamo
I will go on record as being wrong when this race started, predicting Trump was pumping up his "brand" and when the publicity stunt got stale, he would drop out. Boy was I wrong...

You may not be wrong. This Yahoo! Finance article has estimated Trump has gained near $383 million USD in "free exposure thanks to social media." I look at a number like that with a healthy sidelong glance, but it's difficult to argue that he hasn't garnered tremendous media coverage.

Perhaps he is genuinely running for the office, but deep down I get this gut feeling that Trump is actually hoping for a brokered convention so he doesn't get the nomination. The amount of attention he could drain from that scenario could be unprecedented. This election is going to be...interesting. And a disaster (not necessarily because of a potential Trump victory). But interesting.

originally posted by: Boscowashisnamo

originally posted by: Khaleesi
a reply to: Boscowashisnamo


I understand what you are saying but did you actually read the article? It has an interactive graphic. It is interesting because it has the ability to assign percentage of support to the 3 remaining candidates and show the resulting delegate projections based on the rules of each of the states.

Sure did read the article. The premise that Trump's current path will lead him to get the delegates needed is predicated on winning states like NY and especially California. I wouldn't bank on him winning the latter, and if he can't, his nomination bid is anything but secured.

Trump is leading in recent polls in California despite doing absolutely nothing in the state. Conversely, Cruz is behind even though he has a network set up in every California County. Word is, is that Trump is ready to start campaigning in the state. If he is already leading despite doing absolutely nothing, I think California is his for the taking.

a reply to: Arizonaguy

With the candidates competing for three delegates in each of California's 53 congressional districts -- and another 13 for winning the statewide vote -- Trump will have to close the deal with voters from Siskiyou County all the way down to the border, where he wants to build a "beautiful wall." And he will have to fend off a challenge on the right by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and on the left by Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who beat Trump in his home state Tuesday. "What we can see from here on out is a two-front war where Kasich needs to steal delegates from Trump in blue districts and Cruz needs to steal votes in red districts," said David Wasserman of the highly respected Cook Political Report.

"There is a way to get over the top -- and that is California," he said. But the Golden State -- which will account for more than half of the delegates awarded when California and four other states vote on June 7 -- presents problems for Trump: The GOP primary is only open to registered Republicans, who have been less bullish on Trump than independent voters. Trump also will have to deal with a Cruz campaign that has been on the ground organizing for months and a Kasich campaign that could rake in Silicon Valley money and poll well in more moderate areas.

www.mercurynews.com...

We will see if Trump will gain the needed delegates in California. Cruz will highlight Trump's comments in the past on Hispanics, manipulating fear as to a Trump presidency. Will the large Hispanic voting populace in Cali mobilize in an effort to block the acquisition of delegates by Trump? It, like the convention will be very interesting indeed.

a reply to: Boscowashisnamo

California will indeed be interesting. California does not strike me as being all that Evangelical to me. There are more gay Republicans than most people realize. Yes, yes, they do exist. I don't see them voting for Cruz, especially if you consider the fact that not long ago Cruz was introduced at a rally by a preacher that advocated killing gays during his introduction at said rally. That leaves Trump or Kasich. Are they willing to vote Kasich, knowing that will lead to a brokered convention and risk getting Cruz or some unknown that could be worse? Who knows? Interesting times, indeed.

One thing is for sure - if it goes to a brokered convention (which is likely) - Trump will have to close the best deal of his life to get the nomination.

originally posted by: Arizonaguy

originally posted by: Boscowashisnamo

originally posted by: Khaleesi
a reply to: Boscowashisnamo


I understand what you are saying but did you actually read the article? It has an interactive graphic. It is interesting because it has the ability to assign percentage of support to the 3 remaining candidates and show the resulting delegate projections based on the rules of each of the states.

Sure did read the article. The premise that Trump's current path will lead him to get the delegates needed is predicated on winning states like NY and especially California. I wouldn't bank on him winning the latter, and if he can't, his nomination bid is anything but secured.

Trump is leading in recent polls in California despite doing absolutely nothing in the state. Conversely, Cruz is behind even though he has a network set up in every California County. Word is, is that Trump is ready to start campaigning in the state. If he is already leading despite doing absolutely nothing, I think California is his for the taking.

I don't think Trump will take CA.

I'm born and raised here (also lived 20 years in AZ).

People in CA mind their own business. Polling must be difficult here, because most people are not interested in sharing that kind of information.

I think, not sure, that you'll get a "sleeper" vote for Hillary.