The RNC Trump nomination is not in the bag...but it is close

Now, realize that I am referring to the Delegate count and not so much the GOP nod at convention. It could be brokered so there is no guarantee but the path for trump is cleared to take the delegate count.

It is an interesting process as it is not just about winning a state and getting delegates. Each has its own set of rules to dole out the delegates and none are as crazy as the DNC but they can make a big difference especially in a few states depending on who is still in..or where support is given by the drop outs.

A very interesting read.

www.washingtonpost.com...

Presidential politics is, at its core, all about math. Nowhere is that more true than in the fight for delegates to this summer's Republican National Convention. And, the delegate math is close to conclusive: Donald Trump will be extremely close to the 1,237 delegates he needs to formally claim the party's nomination by the end of the primary process.

It will be very, very close, likely less than 20 delegates that will separate the nominees.

For all the talk about Rubio vs. Cruz and who might be the stronger candidate in a one on one against Trump, it's worth noting that the cake is very, very close to being baked for Trump on the delegate math. Something cataclysmic is going to have to happen — and soon — to keep Trump from being over or very close to the 1,237 delegates he needs to be the party's nominee when these primaries end on June 7.

a reply to: matafuchs

I've been watching this closely and have come to the same conclusion. More people are seeing Trump as a viable candidate. He's picking up steam. The establishment wants to keep him just under the needed delegate count so they can have a brokered convention. Rubio is counting on that. He's already playing the numbers, saying more than 60% of Republicans don't want Trump. I couldn't believe his handlers let him say that. By the same logic, even more Republicans don't want Rubio. Even people with poor reasoning skills are able to grasp the logic.

a reply to: matafuchs

Personally, my support goes to Trump. Having said that, much will be decided as this thins down to two potential candidates.

I fear more will back the Establishment choice rather than Trump.(I include Cruz as the choice over Trump by the establishment,) I fear this IS moving down the path of an establishment candidate winning out in the end.

I'm guessing there must be a further, unforeseen gambit for Trump to actually win the nomination. Unlike Rush who says the most important thing is to defeat the Democrats and he therefore will vote for whoever is nominated by the Republican Party, I believe that is the same old, same old argument/mechanism that has been a major factor in the beltway B.S..

I, for one, will not vote for anyone other than Trump for President. Period. I will take his 'attitude' over his mistakes any days of the week. The rest sound just like every Presidential hopefuls and winners in the past. They will give us more of the same.

As it's obvious both Parties have little interest in what we think or want and they will continue to assume we will vote for 'their' candidate as the lesser of two evils, only the voter has the power to break that mechanism,

I suggest letting them know, 'No Trump, No vote". Yes there are consequences in that act. I see the consequence worse by not acting.

It IS about the only power we have...withholding our support/vote.

As long as both Rubio and Cruz stay in the election, Trump will get the nomination. If one or the other dropped out, THEN Trump may get some competition, but since neither of those two idiots' egos will let them drop out of the race, expect Trump to run away with it.

a reply to: Krazysh0t

Your forgetting the Convention process in that assessment. It will get culled down at that point with a combining of Cruz and Rubio delegate votes into a stronger package than Trump's.


That, I believe has been the game plan all along.

Seems Trump's numbers have gone up since Jeb! dropped out.

www.rasmussenreports.com...

a reply to: nwtrucker

"Game plan all along"? I HIGHLY doubt that anything that has happened during this election, Republican or Democrat has gone according to plan.

a reply to: Krazysh0t

I would have to agree. I do think that is the game plan but it doesn't seem to be working.

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: nwtrucker

"Game plan all along"? I HIGHLY doubt that anything that has happened during this election, Republican or Democrat has gone according to plan.

It's the same, from what I can see, to Hillary AND Giuliani in their 'leads' amongst the party bases that ended up Obama and McCain....

originally posted by: nwtrucker

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: nwtrucker

"Game plan all along"? I HIGHLY doubt that anything that has happened during this election, Republican or Democrat has gone according to plan.

It's the same, from what I can see, to Hillary AND Giuliani in their 'leads' amongst the party bases that ended up Obama and Romney....

Then you haven't been paying attention to how this election has been handled. Nothing has gone according to plan as far as the establishment is concerned. The fact that people such as yourself are STILL trying to spin this election into something being controlled by the establishment actually illuminates much about how people who believe the conspiracy theory that everything is decided by the elite cannot let it die even when evidence such as this completely contradicts that narrative.

This election is probably going to go down in history books for how unprecedented and against script it was, yet people are still talking about how the establishment is controlling the election. The establishment is just as baffled as the rest of us as to who will end up being the President.

When the Democrats were cheated with the hanging chad fiasco of Bush vs Gore, the democrats sucked it up and went back to work the next day.

However, if the popular vote goes overwhelmingly to Trump and the people get shafted and are forced to vote for the establishment candidate...
I just don't see the Republican party or conservatives in general just sucking it up and going back to work the next day.

It could get ugly.

Trump better be careful and keep his eyes and senses open, the establishment is running out of options.

a reply to: Krazysh0t


What I am saying, is this is a concern of mine. A worry. If you think there aren't huge vested interests involved, right across the political spectrum, then your the one who underestimates the good ol' boy network. I do not.

I believe Trump can win if nominated. He isn't there yet. Games are still afoot. It is the machine, not just about 'elites' as you say. That machine isn't broken quite yet, from what I can see, despite the unprecedented events so far.


Then there's the threat of a third party candidate backed by the Republican Establishment if Trump does win the nomination, I believe Romney's name has been bandied about.


This isn't over by a long shot......

I think it's a bit premature to be saying this. The article in the OP says a Republican candidate needs 1,237 candidates to win the Republican nomination. And through 3 States, Trump has a whopping 67. There's a lot of voting left to be done before any of the candidates is anywhere close to securing the nomination.

Through three states, Trump has 67 delegates as compared to 11 for Ted Cruz, 10 for Marco Rubio, five for John Kasich and three for Ben Carson.

a reply to: EmmanuelGoldstein

Hanging chads??? Really?? The only hanging chads that were checked, by the Democrat machine well entrenched in Florida despite a new Republican governor, was in the riding/s that was predominately Democrat in base. None of the close ridings where Republicans dominated.


Suck it up? Democrats? Really? They invented the whole thing...right to and including declaring Florida won by the Republicans
even when the western part of the state was still voting!! Thereby costing 1000s of Republican votes.


I will say one thing for the left....they have gall....LMAO.

originally posted by: enlightenedservant
I think it's a bit premature to be saying this. The article in the OP says a Republican candidate needs 1,237 candidates to win the Republican nomination. And through 3 States, Trump has a whopping 67. There's a lot of voting left to be done before any of the candidates is anywhere close to securing the nomination.

Through three states, Trump has 67 delegates as compared to 11 for Ted Cruz, 10 for Marco Rubio, five for John Kasich and three for Ben Carson.

I agree that there is a lot of voting left to be done, but this is a good article explaining how Trump is on pace to win.

www.washingtonpost.com...

No, it is not a sure thing but unless something unforeseen happens, Trump will most likely win the GOP nomination.

a reply to: nwtrucker

I suggest letting them know, 'No Trump, No vote". Yes there are consequences in that act.

Unfortunately they are going to make you swallow a Hillary vs Rubio or Cruz presidency in 2016 no matter what.

Why, because its not about which party is in control its about picking an Oligarch vetted candidate. They use the DNC,GOP, and the MSM to make sure your two choices are between two Oligarch vetted candidates.

IMO

Hillary will take it all and was all likely setup back in 08 . It has to be a democrat that wins next election because to much money and resources were put into Obamacare and too many lobbyist are benefiting from it.

Its not that a republican would over turn it. Its because if the republicans win it and don't over turn it than their would be too much suspicion on the system being rigged.

a reply to: matafuchs

I waiting for Trump to sweep on super Tuesday. We are getting the hats and T-shirts if he does! Looks like he has Nevada, I really really want to see him win Texas too!

a reply to: Khaleesi

Yeah but he's only got something like 5% of the needed delegates to win the nomination. Projecting any type of contest at this mark is a bit silly to me. It's like projecting who'll win a 20 lap race once the 1st racer finishes the first lap.

I don't mind people doing that to pass the time. But when they do it to convince others not to participate or get involved in the process, it strikes me as being dishonest.

a reply to: enlightenedservant

Never before in history has anyone won the GOP nomination without getting either Iowa or New Hampshire, so going by historical precedent, its between Cruz and Trump, and Cruz is loosing it since his win in Iowa! Tonight he is saying he will be happy to come in third with record turnout, its looking like Trump is going to take Nevada. And this seems to be the story everywhere so far, but one state.

We will see, but I expect Trump will sweep the states on Super Tuesday.

a reply to: Kitana

True, but never before in history had the US elected an African American as President until 2008. And this election cycle, the Democrats will nominate either a female or a Jew as the Democratic presidential candidate. In other words, there's a first time for everything. History doesn't determine the future.

Now, if Trump sweeps on Super Tuesday, it's a completely different story. But even then, he could still drop out of the race or face a major scandal that would derail his campaign. Though I'm admittedly finding it hard to believe any normal scandal would make him lose support.

An easier way would be if Cruz & Rubio presented a united front, with one abandoning the presidency in exchange for a post as Vice President or Secretary of State. But I don't think either man's pride would allow it (and the voters still might not accept them).