UK Referendum 23 June 2016 - Will it be an EU BREXIT or Not?

Interesting article in the Independent today:

A former senior International Monetary Fund economist says the arguments that leaving the EU would cause permanent damage to the UK are not supported by evidence

EU referendum: Why the economic consensus on Brexit is flawed

Biggest culprit being the Bank of England!

originally posted by: bigyin
Well I'm hoping England votes out and Scotland votes in.

LOL! Now you're sounding like a devious politician.

That means UK is out of EU, but Scots can claim we want to be in so need another referendum on Independence. Whether or not we go back into EU after independence is up for discussion at the time.

The Scots are NOT having a referendum, neither are the English, Irish

or the Welsh It is a UK referendum. If the UK is out you can claim what

ever you like but collectively *out* you are.

If Scotland votes remain and in doing so tips the balance so the UK is kept in EU I hope that England has a referendum to leave UK and then another referendum for England to leave EU. I imagine brexiters in England will be furious with Scotland and that will give me some pleasure.

Oh! Oh! be careful that chip on your shoulder is showing..... AND AGAIN,

Scotland is NOT voting the UK is voting.

And enjoy your pleasure at achieving your aim of keeping the UK *IN*

as remaining in the EU will be no picnic for any of us.

a reply to: eletheia

I'm afraid it's not just me that thinking this way.

This article shows the feeling in Scotland among many

In case you can't read it due to required subscription I will copy paste the text here

Wee Ginger Dug: Davidson’s misread the battlefield as Union implodes JUNE 1ST, 2016 - 12:28 AM PAUL KAVANAGH 9 COMMENTS THE first sign of a descent into madness is when you start to believe your own hype. It’s only a couple of weeks since the Unionist parties yet again lost the Scottish elections, and lost them badly, but to hear them go on you’d think that when Scotland spoke on May 5 what the country said was that politically it had transformed itself into Essex during a royal jubilee monarchagasm. Break out the bunting, and let’s have a red white and blue street party. Back in reality, as opposed to what the Tory papers say, Scotland said that it still wanted a majority of pro-independence MSPs. We still have a parliament which is as disposed to vote for another independence referendum as the previous one was. As far as the UK is concerned, Scotland is determined to keep its options open. However, in their desperation to clutch at any straw going and tell themselves that there had been an end to this whole nightmare which threatens their privilege, what the Tories saw and heard was a minor revival in their fortunes at the expense of the other main Unionist party and have mistaken this for an upswelling of British pride in a nation which remains as dubious about the UK as it did before the election. On Sunday, Ruth Davidson said that when she heard pro-independence MSPs speak about independence she was reminded of those Second World War Japanese soldiers who refused to surrender even though their country had long since been defeated. Yet since the modern peaceful and democratic Scottish war of independence kicked off, where we fight with ballots not bullets and words not swords, there have been four public votes. In those four, the elections of 2011, 2015 and 2016 and the referendum of 2014, the independence campaign has scored three crushing victories and went down to one narrow defeat. We’ve obliterated the heavy cavalry of Unionist MPs, wiped out the Unionist majority in Holyrood not once but twice, and increased public support for independence from under one third of the population to around a half. We’re poised to evict the Unionists from many of their local government strongholds next year. The west of Scotland, where 40 per cent of the country lives, which was the key reason for Labour’s former dominance, is now solidly pro-independence. The Union is on a very shoogly peg. The independence campaign has taken the idea of independence from the margins of Scottish politics and not only brought it firmly into the mainstream, we’ve made it the key issue around which all Scottish politics revolves. With its EU referendum substituting for a Tory leadership contest the Tories are poised to shoot themselves in the foot and give Scotland another reason to hold a second independence referendum in which we’ll start off from a much stronger position and in which the Union will be severely weakened by having its key promises from the last time exposed as lies. Remember all those promises about jobs and ships and the nearest thing possible to home rule, not to mention the promise that our EU membership would only be safe if Scotland stayed in the UK. If the UK votes to leave the EU in June and Scotland votes to remain, there will be no traction in Unionist scares about uncertainty when it’s remaining in the UK that will be the greatest uncertainty of all. There’s going to be a long and protracted exit negotiation and no settled outcome, the Unionist parties are going to have to try and sell that process to a Scottish electorate which had just rejected it in the EU referendum. It’s more than probable that Brussels will make Scotland an offer that we can’t refuse. Scotland could remain an EU member by inheriting the UK’s membership, with all the opt outs on the Euro and Schengen. British businesses which seek unfettered access to the EU markets will move to Scotland. And there’s nothing Ruth’s wee band of flag-wavers can do to prevent it. Meanwhile, her party is tearing itself apart, and while they harp on about the divisions caused by the Scottish referendum, the deepest, the most cutting, and the bloodiest divisions are those opening up within the Conservative party as a result of this needless EU referendum. The two wings of the Tory party compete with one another to tell the most ridiculous, the scariest, the most over-hyped stories. The more hysterical they get, the more they destroy their own credibility. Whatever the outcome of the vote on June 23, the Tories will come out of it weakened and fatally damaged by their self-inflicted wounds. And then Ruth is going to have to defend the actions of that party to the Scottish Parliament. Every week she’s going to be held to account for a lame-duck government that’s more preoccupied with its own leadership battles while it seeks to impose austerity and cuts. David Cameron’s stock has sunk so low in Westminster that some Tory MPs are now openly calling for another General Election. If he fails to win a large majority for remain in the referendum, there’s a toilet U-bend waiting for Cameron’s career, and the polls say it is too close to call. There’s going to be a new campaignto make the case for independence starting over the summer, and without us raising a finger to point out the positive case for a Scotland that’s in charge of its own destiny, the Union is self-destructing. So yeah Ruthie, that’s totally like refusing to accept the defeat of a Japan that’s just been nuked, has had its infrastructure utterly destroyed by a four-year campaign of carpet bombing by the Allies, and which is facing an invasion from the Soviet Union. We can only be relieved that her military career was short lived and is now over, because making an accurate assessment of a battlefield is clearly not her strong point. There are blind brain-damaged mice in laboratory mazes with a better grasp of strategy.

a reply to: Morrad

Christine Legarde who has wrongly made various economic predictions has

little credibility in my opinion.


The worlds fifth most powerful woman, she is/was under official

investigation for a multi million case of fraud, negligence, and corruption.

Corruption begets corruption and they all swim in the same pool!! and keep

each other in power.


Hardly a role model or paragon of virtue

www.telegraph.co.uk... ase.html

a reply to: bigyin

Well I'm hoping England votes out and Scotland votes in.

Why do you wish to be so at odds with England and by extension the English people all the time?
Are you so consumed with bigotry that you will allow it to effect your every opinion?

That means UK is out of EU, but Scots can claim we want to be in so need another referendum on Independence.

Why?
Just because the rest of the UK voted different to Scotland.
What happens if places like The Hebrides, Shetland etc all vote significantly different to the rest of Scotland?
Could they then demand independence from Scotland etc.

What if N.E. England votes different to rUK, would that be grounds for Northumbrian independence?

Its a whole can of worms.

Whether or not we go back into EU after independence is up for discussion at the time.

If you did 're-enter' the EU you would be giving up your new found independence.
If you did not 're-enter' the EU you would have serially pissed off almost every neighbouring nation / organisation - not an easy start for a fledgling country.
I think you'd be up the proverbial without a paddle.

If Scotland votes remain and in doing so tips the balance so the UK is kept in EU I hope that England has a referendum to leave UK and then another referendum for England to leave EU.

Not going to happen.
England will never forsake the Union.

We can however work together to change it into something we can ALL be proud of.

I imagine brexiters in England will be furious with Scotland and that will give me some pleasure.

Again, such bitterness and apparent hatred.
What have the ordinary, everyday English men and women ever done to you?

If England votes to remain and so does Scotland then its just the status quo. We all carry on as is.

Which is why we ALL have to vote out.
Free ourselves from EU control then work together towards changing the UK for the better.
That will be impossible under EU governance.

a reply to: Freeborn

My wife is English. Maybe thats got something to do with it except to say she is more SNP than I am

a reply to: bigyin

And Nigel Farage's wife is German....you're point is?

You may or may not be one of those rabid anti-English Scots that seem to be so vocal, but that's the way you come across here on ATS.

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: crazyewok
I do feel sorry for those from the South West who seem to get tarred with the same brush yet who feel just as alienated and disgusted with southerners.

Appreciated fella...badly neglected in these parts, one of the most underfunded police constabularies in England here (Devon & Cornwall), most expensive water charges, massive property prices due to second home owners from the home counties, minimum wage seasonal work for most folk as tourism is the only real industry...it just doesn't seem piss poor to the casual eye due to the lovely environment...I quite like our underfunded police though lol.

Apparently Google are now trying to influence the referendum by manipulating internet search rankings, according to a popular Eurosceptic political blog with 14 million hits.

So when the popular and eurosceptic EUReferendum website recently disappeared off Google’s first page of results on the topic – after being the top result for the topic on search engines for more than a decade – eyebrows were raised.

The site was founded in 2004 by author and researcher Richard North, was rated by the Financial Times as the UK’s most influential political blog in 2006, and remains the top result for the topic when searched on Yahoo and Microsoft’s Bing.

But on Google now, it appears as either the 13th or 15th result, on the second page – below three government pages on the topic, four links to the pro-EU Guardian and Independent newspapers, one to the BBC, and just one to the more eurosceptic Telegraph.

Claim: ‘Corrupt’ Google Suppressing Eurosceptic Website, Says Founder

a reply to: grainofsand

One of the arguments against a Brexit vote is some perceived idea that it will mean economic hardship.

Well guess what, for folks like us it'll just mean more of the same.

I left in school in '82, the height of Thatcher's destruction of the UK's manufacturing base, and all I've ever known for the North East is economic hardship.
I certainly don't recall any alleged halcyon days when we were all affluent and living in the lap of luxury etc.

And I guess its been the same for people in the South West, North West etc.

I know any exit from the EU will probably mean hardship for a few years - so frigging what - that's all we have to look forward to anyway.

But, and its a massive but, it's about the legacy we leave our children and grandchildren.

A country in charge of its own affairs and destiny free from the control of an unaccountable and morally defunct EU.

The South East, London and the Home Counties will vote to remain and sell our heritage and future down the river all for a quick buck and because they've taken the 'I'm alright Jack' attitude to obscene levels.
They couldn't give a toss about us and view us as 'northern monkeys' and 'inbred, country yokels'.

Latest from the online Pollstation Internet Poll; After over 83,893 votes its showing as 83% Leave. I know I harping on but because this vote in favour of Leave has only increased by 3% in the last month it is an indication of the mood of the people in general. Ok this is only a small portion of the population but it is a big small portion relative other so called polls. Would we choose to ignore this pool if the vote numbers were 1m or even 500,000. The bookies are obviously either not in touch with this poll or don't think it has any relevance. Wont it be interesting vote Leave win and this poll was telling us all along!


www.pollstation.uk...

Dodgy David dodging live debate yet again with tonight's preconceived question set. Oh lets not forget to mention its the LIVE TV friendly between England and Portugal which is on at the same time. Like I said dodgy and shifty David!

a reply to: Freeborn
Really don’t know what south east your talking about?

Kent and Medway is near collapse.

Our public services can’t take anymore. We all know that here. Everyone I have meet here is out or undecided. Don’t know a single person voting in.

Might be a different story in Surry or Sussex but here in Kent its out.

All this fear being thrown around about how we would spend years neogating

deals etc? Journalist Marco Giannangeli writes >>>>

Britain would be legally entiled to use existing

trade deals worth billions of pounds according to a new report.

Written by some of the most eminent legal experts in the field, the

*Lawyers for Britain* research discredits claims by Chancellor George

Osborne, that the UK would find it *very difficult* to renegotiate trade

deals with 27 EU members and 50 global trading partners.


The report was hailed as a game changer by the independant *Institute

of Economic Affairs* think tank. Director General Martin Littlewood

said, This nails the lie from the remain camp that if the UK were

to leave Britain would find itself at ground zero or year zero. In

fact we would have in place nearly all the arrangements that we

could possibly want, and we would have plenty of time to

exercise flexability from there.*


Britain is already a signoraty to more than 50 trade deals of varying

degrees of importance between the EU and nations outside of Europe.

They include tariff free South Korea and Switzerland worth 12.3 billion ,

and both are top 10 trading partners for the UK.


Speaking at the G7 summit in Japan Mr Osborne said *If the UK

left the EU there would have to be a two year period to negotiate

our exit with 27 other countries. We would then have to

negotiate new arrangements with them, and at the same time

conclude over 50 trade deals with countries that aren't even in

Europe.that would be extremely difficult to do*

Liar liar pants on fire!!!!!

This was echoed by a 'Remain' spokesman who said *The legal

position is clear.We'd have to start from scratch, which would take

years if not decades, meaning ongoing uncertainty for trade,

investment, jobs and livelihoods.'

That was rejected by the reports author Martin Howe QC one of

Britain's leading EU experts who confirmed that far from

having to abandon the deals, *Britain would have existing trade deals

in place from the first day after Brexit

Mr How added There was already a legal precedent for this.

It was applied when Czechoslovkia became the Czech Republic

and Slovakia. That's a much more extreme example than Brexit

Those people who are saying it is not true are buying into their own

mythology without checking LEGAL FACTS.

AND THERE'S MORE!! SECRET PLOT TO TAKE OVER TAX POWERS

Every working person in the EU is to be given a personal European

Taxpayer Identification Number (ETIN) under new plans by Brussels.

The move dubbed *yet another signpost to a superstate* followed the

decision by the EU Parliament economic affairs committee to rubber

stamp a plan by Commissioners to create a *common corporate

consolidated tax base*

In the biggest threat to sovereignty yet, the plan also calls for the

EU to take over member states corporate taxation powers wit a common

corporation tax base, banning sovereign states from increasing their

competitiveness by cutting corporation tax below 15%.

UKIP's financial affairs spokesman, Steven Woolfe said * After months

of keeping their super state ambitions under wraps, the mask has finally

slipped. These plans demonstrate the risks of remaining in a club which

has grand plans to supersede nation states and create a United States

of Europe with a fully fledged continental-wide tax system.

The begining of the raft of measures they are aiming to implement

IF

the UK stays within the EU


OUT ... OUT ... OUT... OUT!!!edit on 2-6-2016 by eletheia

Nigel Farage has put his money where his mouth is and bet £1000 that we will Leave the EU...
Though in reality that is pocket change to him.

Girl takes down waffling dodgy Dave


www.msn.com...
Are the Remain campaign in trouble?

Cameron; "We can control migration in EU,"

www.bbc.co.uk...

Simple question - Well why hasn't he been able, or willing, to do so?

We all know waffle when we hear it!

originally posted by: Freeborn
Cameron; "We can control migration in EU,"

www.bbc.co.uk...

Simple question - Well why hasn't he been able, or willing, to do so?

We all know waffle when we hear it!

M Grove tonight and it shouldn't be too difficult to out do waffling economy (speculation) dodgy Dave.

I think Gove has done a good job tonight in the Sky debate.
"Take back control" being his main message.

That £350 million per week came back to haunt him though. When he gave the rationale behind his claim he says that the rebate is not always guaranteed and can be reduced overtime. He is correct in that but he doesn't give any examples how it has been reduced, like that extra £1.8billion extra we had to pay the EU, half paid via a reduced rebate for example. I think that would have gave him more credibility in his claim.

originally posted by: 83Liberty
I think Gove has done a good job tonight in the Sky debate.
"Take back control" being his main message.

That £350 million per week came back to haunt him though. When he gave the rationale behind his claim he says that the rebate is not always guaranteed and can be reduced overtime. He is correct in that but he doesn't give any examples how it has been reduced, like that extra £1.8billion extra we had to pay the EU, half paid via a reduced rebate for example. I think that would have gave him more credibility in his claim.

I am puzzled by people asking for guarantees of no one loosing jobs!!

Off the top of my head who predicted the job losses of the demise of

Woolworths stores a stalwart of the High street and currently BHS another

High street stalwart and the likely hood of Tata in Wales closing? all lost

jobs and WHILE we are in EU.

So how can ANYONE predict what will happen

The UK is unable to intervene in helping Tata due to EU

rules, but the German Steel industry gets special low industry costs

for running their industries!


Anyway where were all these economists and alphabetical agencies and

heads of banks when the banks went down causing the last austerity we

are STILL going through. They didn't predict that!!

But all of a sudden they have become the standard of ACCURACY and

HONESTY Leave it out .......