UK Referendum 23 June 2016 - Will it be an EU BREXIT or Not?

Love the new avatar grainofsand! I am planning on doing something similar with the Union Jack.

More info from Dearlove and Haydon:

Sir Richard speaks of the “Third Party Rule”, which is “essential to intelligence cooperation worldwide” and inadequately understood by politicians. It states that “the recipient of intelligence from one nation cannot pass it on to a third without the originator’s agreement”. If he does so, trust breaks down, and intelligence dries up. The EU has 28 member states, so the phrase “Third Party Rule” hardly does justice to the problem. A “28 Parties Rule” would be more like it. If you propose to tell your secrets to Romania, Greece, Cyprus, Belgium - indeed, you might as well just put them out on the internet.

This explains why, as General Michael Haydon, the former chief of the CIA, said yesterday, the EU “is not a natural contributor to national security”. Since it seeks to dilute the concept of nationhood, why would it want to be? By far the highest level of intelligence trust in the world is the “Five Eyes” alliance, between the US, Britain, Australia, Canada and New Zealand. They share an experience of cooperation in wars, a language, a Common Law tradition and, in four cases, the Crown.

This is interesting as well.

For five or six years now, the EU has wrangled over a “passenger names record directive”, which, if passed, would make air-passenger manifests available to the relevant security authorities of all member states. Theresa May had another go at a meeting of the EU Justice and Home Affairs Ministers two days after the bombing. But still nothing has actually, well, happened.

(By the way, isn’t it strange that we are threatened, if we leave the EU, with “ten years of negotiations” about the details, as if this would be a shockingly unfamiliar experience? As a result of being in the EU, we have been negotiating incessantly, often inconclusively, for 40 years.)

Slowness is not the only problem. A resistance to strong security within the Union is built into its constitution. The doctrine of free movement of peoples, for example, means that the British authorities are not allowed to subject EU citizens entering this country to the systematic checks they can use on other foreigners.

Edit: I keep forgetting those damn links.

The EU is a huge version of Belgium – and it can’t deal with the modern world

originally posted by: Morrad
Love the new avatar grainofsand! I am planning on doing something similar with the Union Jack.

Haha cheers! I remembered my dad's old dark blue/black British passport and went with it...I've personally only ever held a dark red coloured EU passport, and I will smile if the day ever comes when I hold a dark blue British one, no matter the potential challenges.

Here is the latest Telegraph EU Referendum Poll Tracker. Not sure of the numbers though but whatever they are at the moment its likely they will be reported as close until June. Because there is much uncertainty how undecided voters will swing.


www.telegraph.co.uk...

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
Here is the latest Telegraph EU Referendum Poll Tracker. Not sure of the numbers though but whatever they are at the moment its likely they will be reported as close until June. Because there is much uncertainty how undecided voters will swing.


www.telegraph.co.uk...

So 51% remain and 49% leave, lol let's see the result in June.
...remember the polls for the general election last year?
Who trusts polls now? lol

originally posted by: grainofsand

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
Here is the latest Telegraph EU Referendum Poll Tracker. Not sure of the numbers though but whatever they are at the moment its likely they will be reported as close until June. Because there is much uncertainty how undecided voters will swing.


www.telegraph.co.uk...

So 51% remain and 49% leave, lol let's see the result in June.
...remember the polls for the general election last year?
Who trusts polls now? lol

No I wouldn't trust any official poll and suspect that the true picture is not so far off our own ATS poll (demographics aside). At at guess I would speculate that its more likely to be 55 OUT and 45 STAY!

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: grainofsand

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
Here is the latest Telegraph EU Referendum Poll Tracker. Not sure of the numbers though but whatever they are at the moment its likely they will be reported as close until June. Because there is much uncertainty how undecided voters will swing.


www.telegraph.co.uk...

So 51% remain and 49% leave, lol let's see the result in June.
...remember the polls for the general election last year?
Who trusts polls now? lol

No I wouldn't trust any official poll and suspect that the true picture is not so far off our own ATS poll (demographics aside). At at guess I would speculate that its more likely to be 55 OUT and 45 STAY!

Without going back there why would you distrust an official poll yet expect others to to trust an unofficial one on a conspiracy based website?

All polls are biased and only the actual result will determine what the future holds.

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
No I wouldn't trust any official poll and suspect that the true picture is not so far off our own ATS poll (demographics aside). At at guess I would speculate that its more likely to be 55 OUT and 45 STAY!

My gut instinct say much more than that...I hope I'm right.

If you haven't already come across The Sceptic Isle - A progressive case for leaving the EU


thescepticisle.com...

originally posted by: grainofsand

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
No I wouldn't trust any official poll and suspect that the true picture is not so far off our own ATS poll (demographics aside). At at guess I would speculate that its more likely to be 55 OUT and 45 STAY!

My gut instinct say much more than that...I hope I'm right.

ATS speculative vote is approx 62 OUT. Will check and post latest when we hit 50 pages. But one would expect the difference to be as much in reality, but you never know.

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: grainofsand

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
No I wouldn't trust any official poll and suspect that the true picture is not so far off our own ATS poll (demographics aside). At at guess I would speculate that its more likely to be 55 OUT and 45 STAY!

My gut instinct say much more than that...I hope I'm right.

ATS vote is approx 62 OUT. Will check and post latest when we hit 50 pages.

Here's taking you one step closer to your 50 pages but it is still all speculation.

originally posted by: nonspecific

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: grainofsand

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
No I wouldn't trust any official poll and suspect that the true picture is not so far off our own ATS poll (demographics aside). At at guess I would speculate that its more likely to be 55 OUT and 45 STAY!

My gut instinct say much more than that...I hope I'm right.

ATS vote is approx 62 OUT. Will check and post latest when we hit 50 pages.

Here's taking you one step closer to your 50 pages but it is still all speculation.

Speculation based on recorded replies?

originally posted by: grainofsand

originally posted by: nonspecific

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: grainofsand

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
No I wouldn't trust any official poll and suspect that the true picture is not so far off our own ATS poll (demographics aside). At at guess I would speculate that its more likely to be 55 OUT and 45 STAY!

My gut instinct say much more than that...I hope I'm right.

ATS vote is approx 62 OUT. Will check and post latest when we hit 50 pages.

Here's taking you one step closer to your 50 pages but it is still all speculation.

Speculation based on recorded replies?

I thought we all agreed that polls were just speculation?

I have said that the leave vote was gaining ground in my opinion and that I was thinking about an "exit" vote myself?

Making up figures and hoping though is for the weak surely?

Anyone taking an ATS thread as a true representation of the UK as a whole must be a little deluded?

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: grainofsand

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
No I wouldn't trust any official poll and suspect that the true picture is not so far off our own ATS poll (demographics aside). At at guess I would speculate that its more likely to be 55 OUT and 45 STAY!

My gut instinct say much more than that...I hope I'm right.

ATS vote is approx 62 OUT. Will check and post latest when we hit 50 pages.

Means nothing. This is a conspiracy site with a far higher proportion of people mistrusting of government and large institutions like the EU. A highly biased result.

It will be close but I suspect the outs will win and it will have nothing to do with facts. It will be based on perception and personalities. Remember that about 80% of the voters have already made up their mind. Between now and then the 20% will be influenced by the circus on TV and in the papers.

originally posted by: nonspecific
Making up figures and hoping though is for the weak surely?

Anyone taking an ATS thread as a true representation of the UK as a whole must be a little deluded?

Facing the presented figures with hope is all we can do, surely?
Cries of delusion are premature don't you think?

originally posted by: yorkshirelad
It will be close but I suspect the outs will win

I hope you are right

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: grainofsand

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
No I wouldn't trust any official poll and suspect that the true picture is not so far off our own ATS poll (demographics aside). At at guess I would speculate that its more likely to be 55 OUT and 45 STAY!

My gut instinct say much more than that...I hope I'm right.

ATS speculative vote is approx 62 OUT. Will check and post latest when we hit 50 pages. But one would expect the difference to be as much in reality, but you never know.

It means nothing but interesting to see how the votes match on 23 June 2016.

originally posted by: yorkshirelad

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite

originally posted by: grainofsand

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
No I wouldn't trust any official poll and suspect that the true picture is not so far off our own ATS poll (demographics aside). At at guess I would speculate that its more likely to be 55 OUT and 45 STAY!

My gut instinct say much more than that...I hope I'm right.

ATS vote is approx 62 OUT. Will check and post latest when we hit 50 pages.

Means nothing. This is a conspiracy site with a far higher proportion of people mistrusting of government and large institutions like the EU. A highly biased result.

It will be close but I suspect the outs will win and it will have nothing to do with facts. It will be based on perception and personalities. Remember that about 80% of the voters have already made up their mind. Between now and then the 20% will be influenced by the circus on TV and in the papers.

Agree it has no significance relative to the real vote on 23 June but like I said interesting to see how ATSer's view the EU BREXIT.

a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

It means a lot.
The 'remain' crowd on ATS probably hate you for running with this thread lol, especially after you #ed up with the 'Brussells security' argument yesterday lol.
I think the vote will be a convincing 'leave' and many people will be shocked...fingers crossed of course.

originally posted by: grainofsand

originally posted by: yorkshirelad
It will be close but I suspect the outs will win

I hope you are right

I agree it will be OUT but maybe less close than you think.

originally posted by: grainofsand

originally posted by: nonspecific
Making up figures and hoping though is for the weak surely?

Anyone taking an ATS thread as a true representation of the UK as a whole must be a little deluded?

Facing the presented figures with hope is all we can do, surely?
Cries of delusion are premature don't you think?

My accusations of delusion are aimed based not on the actual figures which I have said are looking more towards an exit vote on many occasions but on the basis of this thread.

Without going back to the absurdity of yesterdays arguments it has to be said that the notion that this is a thread about the discussion of an EU referendum is embarrassing at best.

This thread is about EU exit people and there beliefs and the notion that that anyone can debate this is farcical at best.

The reason that the OP's figures show in favour of an exit vote is based purely on the fact that bully boy tactics make anyone opposing the views of an exit voter insignificant.

Will there be an exit?

Who knows?

Is this thread a true discussion and can it's figures be used to make an accurate poll.

Nope.