Donald Trump’s Strongest Supporters: A Certain Kind of Registered Democrat...43% of them...

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Vector99

Apparently no one they call identifies as Democrat.

Heh, you're don't the same thing the OP did, but a bit differently.

No I'm not. They don't show any data for democrats. Show me where they do, I gave you the links.

a reply to: Vector99

They don't show any data for democrats

Yes. I know.
That's the point. The poll concerned only self-identified Republicans. Intentionally. It says so.
Therefore the OP's spin is not valid.

a reply to: Phage

I never said it was. I was only debating the source itself. Can you agree it's not credible?

a reply to: Vector99

Can you agree it's not credible?

No. I can't agree that it is not credible, based on that criterion.

The poll had a specific demographic target as most polls do. Some may focus on an age group. Some on a gender. This one focused on "self-identified Republicans."

And, using a sample of 11,000 of self-identified Republicans (which is a good sized sample) found that 33% of self-identified Republicans favor Trump.

It also found that 36% of those who favor Trump are 65 years or older. And that 36% of them are women. And that 24% are Latino. And...that 43% of them are registered Democrats.

a reply to: Phage

and the raw data is where again?

I wonder what the total number of DINOs is. 43% of DINOs could be a ridiculously small number.

originally posted by: Vector99
a reply to: Phage

and the raw data is where again?

Ask the OP.

a reply to: Phage

"You're wrong...cause I said so..."

Phage and Intro sound just like Trump.

I understand that you are simply looking at the first few paragraphs and then simply dismissing the rest of the article.

These areas also include many of the places where Democrats have lost the most ground over the last half-century, and where Hillary Clinton tended to fare best among white voters in her contest against Mr. Obama in the 2008 Democratic primaries.

In many of these areas, a large number of traditionally Democratic voters have long supported Republicans in presidential elections. Even now, Democrats have more registered voters than Republicans do in states like West Virginia and Kentucky, which have been easily carried by Republicans in every presidential contest of this century. As recently as a few years ago, Democrats still had a big advantage in partisan self-identification in the same states.

But during the Obama era, many of these voters have abandoned the Democrats. Many Democrats may now even identify as Republicans, or as independents who lean Republican, when asked by pollsters — a choice that means they’re included in a national Republican primary survey, whether they remain registered as Democrats or not.

Mr. Trump appears to hold his greatest strength among people like these — registered Democrats who identify as Republican leaners — with 43 percent of their support, according to the Civis data

This thread is entirely about the people who are going to decide to not vote for Democrats although they are registered as Democrats. Realize, just like in the last 'post' I explained, there are 43% Republican leaning registered Democrats who said yes but that means that there are 57% who said no. That means there are quite a few more who could swing over to the GOP.

Also, just so you know, Civis Analytics is a Democratic Polling house. Not a Right wing think tank....they are the ones who wrote the article in August about how they thought his poll numbers are inflated.

You should look at the big picture instead of your futile attempt to discredit with NO conflicting data, polls or links of your own.

Also, According to Civis...

Before delving into the results, it’s important to understand why Civis polls are unlike the surveys sponsored by news organizations or universities. Nearly all public polls try to interview adults by randomly calling telephone numbers, a technique known as random digit dialing. They adjust the responses to match the demographic characteristics of the adult population, then remove those people who say they’re not registered to vote.

So you see, this is not just a lets call old people on the phone and get rid of those who do not fit type of poll.

a reply to: matafuchs

I understand that you are simply looking at the first few paragraphs and then simply dismissing the rest of the article.

No. I am looking at the information provided about the poll.

This thread is entirely about the people who are going to decide to not vote for Democrats although they are registered as Democrats.

That is not what you said in your OP. But the poll does not say these people would not vote for Democrats. It indicates that out of all of the Republican candidates, 33% of the sample preferred Trump and 43% of those were registered Democrats.

It does not say that the Democrats will not vote for a Democrat. That is purely an assumption on your part since no Democrat candidates were included in the poll.

You should look at the big picture instead of your futile attempt to discredit with NO conflicting data, polls or links of your own.

You should stop jumping to conclusions based on insufficient data. As I said before, I would be happy to concede your point if you can produce a poll which shows significant numbers of Democrats will be voting for Trump, or any other Republican. This poll does not do so.

So you see, this is not just a lets call old people on the phone and get rid of those who do not fit type of poll.

You're barking up the wrong tree. I have not criticized the polling technique, I've said that your interpretation of the results is fallacious. It is.

a reply to: Phage

This is as close to the raw data as I can find. This is how they do it....

What we do is a bit different than what you’ve been reading:

1. We collect a lot more data. We’ve gathered an enormous amount of survey data on the GOP primary so far. Back in August, we released data from an initial poll of 757 self-identified Republicans from a total sample of 3,007 Americans (you can read more about the findings in the New York Times). Since that initial survey starting August 10, 2015, we’ve collected over 10,000 more survey responses to the GOP Primary horserace question on our ongoing weekly national tracking survey of 2,000+ respondents (if you’d like to add your own question, learn more here).

2. We’re using math that isn’t typically used in election analytics. To build the maps you’re looking at, we’re running tens of thousands of simulations using proprietary Bayesian algorithms that leverage all of that data to make estimates of survey responses in small geographies or demographic subgroups (if you’re interested in learning more, check out multilevel regression and post-stratification).

Using these methods we’re able to confidently generate estimates within 8.7 percentage points at the Congressional level which is 5.2 times better than what we could do with surveys alone.

a reply to: matafuchs
Sounds good to me but can you provide a link?
But, then, I never questioned their polling techniques or their statistics.


Never mind. I found it in your latest poll thread.

Civis Analytics conducted 40,050 live telephone interviews of adults in the United States contacted on telephones from August 10, 2015 to December 27, 2015. Among respondents of these surveys there were 11,441 self-identified Republican or lean Republican adults. These respondents were asked their candidate preference in the GOP primary. Undecided respondents are not considered as part of the analysis, map, or trend lines.

civisanalytics.com...

Pretty much as I thought it would have been done.

As I explained to you previously. Only those who are self-identified Republicans polled about only Republican candidates in the primary.
Not all Democrats. And nothing about how, or if, they would vote in a Democrat primary.

Your conclusions are not logically reached from the data provided. Actually, based on those numbers, your premise might be invalidated since only 28% of those called turned out to be self-identified Republicans. Seems there may be a lot more who don't self-identify as Republicans than do.

The intollarent left would eat alive any other liberal who dares think differently. So there won't be an overwhelming social media support from the left for the Donald.

Liberals have used, and used it very well: the only reason you disagree with my logic is because you are a : racist, sexist, homophobe, xenophobe, and so on.

People were/are scared of those names. Now rational people are look around and see:

5 million illegal get working permits in America while 27 million Americans are out of work....they won't post, especially the democrats, but they are going to vote for Trump

When rational people see the craziness that the democratic/luberals leaders support or a better phrase is: not oppose. they are going to vote Trump.

You never really see the democratic leadership oppose things like:

When a kid get sent home for wearing an Amritican flag to school

When a kid gets sent home for wearing a Star Wars shirt because the storm trooper has a gun

When a yoga class gets canceled and the people who go to yoga are called a racist

When one gets called a racist for eating an an ethnic restaurant or called racist for not liking an ethnic dish....

these rational Americans, while they might not flaunt it on social media, are going to vote for Trump

a reply to: Phage

That is not what you said in your OP. But the poll does not say these people would not vote for Democrats. It indicates that out of all of the Republican candidates, 33% of the sample preferred Trump and 43% of those were registered Democrats.

It does not say that the Democrats will not vote for a Democrat. That is purely an assumption on your part since no Democrat candidates were included in the poll.

What does the title of the thread say? 43% of a certain type of Democrat. That type is a registered Democrat who is leaning to the Republican vote this year. There is no assumption. 43% of those who supported him, 33%, are Democrats. You state that above.

Do you not think that is a high number of people who would regularly vote Democrat as registered. I know that you do not register as a specific party unless you want to be able to vote for local, state and national primaries.

a reply to: matafuchs

What does the title of the thread say?

Titles don't always reflect content accurately. This is what you said in your OP:

Bottom line is Democrats do not seem to be happy with the direction of the party and we are seeing an alignment of voters that has not been seen since Mr Reagan came in with his no-nonsense approach and swept the election in 1980.

This poll does not provide information by which that "bottom line" can be reached.

How do you interpret the fact that 72% of the people called did not self-identify as Republican or Republican leaning?

Do you not think that is a high number of people who would regularly vote Democrat as registered.

How do you know how they would vote? All they did is state which Republican candidate they prefer in the primaries. They were not asked about Democrat candidates.

a reply to: Phage

How do you know how they would vote? All they did is state which Republican candidate they prefer in the primaries. They were not asked about Democrat candidates.

Exactly.

If they were to include democrat candidates in to this poll the results could be, and would most likely be, very different.

a reply to: introvert
There's a good chance that it's something like a meal on an airplane (when they used to do that).

Do you want the "chicken" or the "steak?" You don't really want either one but you're hungry. And in the case of a good number of these registered Democrats, it doesn't really matter since they can't vote in the Republican primary anyway. They're in coach. No meal for them.

originally posted by: matafuchs

43% of registered democrats 'polled' say they would vote for him.
...

NOPE

Please don't butcher reality..

From your source

Mr. Trump appears to hold his greatest strength among people like these — registered Democrats who identify as Republican leaners — with 43 percent of their support,

Registered Democrats make up just 8 percent of self-identified Republicans in the states with party registration, according to the Civis data.

Amongst those democrats who identify themselves as leaning Republican...he gets 43% of that small slice of Democrats...NOT 43% of all registered Democrats..

a reply to: Indigo5

Actually, that statement is correct, in and of itself. The results only include registered Democrats which were included included in the poll. Anyone who did not self-identify as Republican was not polled.

However, the way the OP interprets the results is way off.

a reply to: Phage

or you can have fish ( i hope you get the reference )

They took a poll with 11,000 Republican leaning voters. If did not say that all of them were registered Democrats. It does not include people who are undecided either.

Out of these Right leaning voters, there are registered Democrats. This is a sub section of the demographic polled. Those who are Democrats but identify as Republicans, leaning right basically totaled 43%. So, 43% of those who are registered Democrats in the poll would support Trump.

What is scary about the poll is that only 29% of the Registered Republicans support him but, in most other national polls he is holding at about 27-35% so, in comparison to other polls, we see the same trend.

The last time this happened in great numbers was the 1980 election. That is why I used the term bottom line. If the Democratic Party cannot find a way to stop the GOP from claiming votes they did not have in 08 and 12, they will not win no matter who the GOP puts up. Hillary is not it and I cannot see Bernie getting the election although if i had a choice as a registered Republican, I would choose Sanders.

a reply to: Indigo5

You talked in a circle there...

originally posted by: matafuchs

43% of registered democrats 'polled' say they would vote for him.

Yes, this is what I wrote and

you wrote

Amongst those democrats who identify themselves as leaning Republican...he gets 43% of that small slice of Democrats.

I never said ALL registered Democrats...you brought that in.