Quake Watch 2016

I don't refuse the possibility that Lunar and Solar cycles can have an impact on quakes, in fact it seems logical that there would be some kind of connection. However, I have seen no real evidence for this link, and I am of the opinion that any Lunar or Solar influence would probably be minor if it does exist.

The thing is, decades ago we never knew about the damage solar flares can cause, and now we do. There was a time when we knew nothing about the effect the Moon has on tidal movements, and now we know.

So, it's probable that there is some kind of effect on geological events too, but probably a very minor one.

And lets be honest here, it's easy to make a claim about an Earthquake happening, then just wait for one to hit and slightly change your "prediction". I can predict we'll see a 6.0 or higher in the next three months somewhere around the Pacific Plate. That's not based on anything but probability, but even if there was a 5.0 some would think I predicted it when I really didn't.

As said, he was right once, but why didn't he predict all the deadly quakes we've seen over the last week? How come he popped up to warn about another he's "predicting" after totally failing to predict any of the recent quakes and having to go all the way back to the 80's to give himself any credibility?

To be honest, I would not be surprised to see another large quake in the US over the next couple of months, but that's not a prediction and it's nothing to do with Lunar cycles, it's just my observation of what we've seen happen and the logical conclusion being that the forces under the West Coast are ready to go at any moment.

a reply to: Rocker2013

I would agree with you 98%.

I do not have a scientific/geology education.

However, I do try to pay attention to the information I have access too. I don't always completely understand what I am reading or looking at. But the more I read and look at graph's, I am slowly understanding why this makes sense or that doesn't.

I will never have the expertise that Muzzy or Puterman have. Or any of the other great minds we have here at ATS.

I definitely have a'lot to learn.

I really enjoy it, and look forward to my time to research.

I'm open to the moon having some small effect but I'm confused at how a full moon would make a difference compared to any other phase?

Firstly, I'll say that I agree with Muzzy and find Berkland too general. Also, as I stated, I disagree with Berkland about cause. It's not every full or new moon, therefore he has a lot of windows. My hypothesis is much narrower because I am only looking at two cycle lunar phases. It's not just a super moon. In fact, that term bugs me. When I made a prediction concerning Yellowstone, I had date and time right and the location. Based on one factor only. The previous swarm in 2008/09.

I saw Vanuatu chiming in and thought that Mama J was right about her theory.

And that's where I'll leave my idea. As I have stated, it's a two part system with a spike in earthquakes before and after the peaks. There can be three peaks but let's not get muddled up. We right now are at high noon with regard to full moon and perigee. Right, no, apogee. Yup, checked and it's apogee because we have a tiny moon on the horizon. In a few days we should get another clustering event. I really can't be specific about a location. Frankly, because I've been looking so hard at Nicaragua that my default answer is Nicaragua. Even though it seems to have all but shut off. Nothing but steam from all of the smouldering volcanoes of the thin land-strip.

I can say California but it's because I think there's a larger mechanism and I've described it on volcano watch. There's just a big gap all the way, I said Top of South America, but that's changed, all the way from Central America up through Mexico and up to Washington State. And part of it could go. Maybe not Mexico, because it has been so constant it's not the part that's built up stress.

So, I'll shut up about the moon and see if over the next two and a half days things don't pick back up in a major way.

Oh, and talk about quiet, someone on Volcano Watch asked if the geysers were reacting to the big earthquakes and someone posted a video claiming an increase. When I went to look that day it was on the calm side. Today, I looked again to make sure I was mistaken and to assure myself that things were "normal', I looked, and I saw that it was too normal. Unnormal. It's super quiet with hardly any geyser activity. Cue the Twilight Zone theme....


half kidding

M6.0 - near the coast of Ecuador

0.328°S 80.543°W depth=10.0 km (6.2 mi)

Time
2016-04-22 03:03:41 (UTC)
2016-04-21 22:03:41 (UTC-05:00) in your timezone
Times in other timezones

Nearby Places
33.0 km (20.5 mi) NNW of Bahia de Caraquez, Ecuador
59.0 km (36.7 mi) NNW of Tosagua, Ecuador
63.0 km (39.1 mi) NW of Chone, Ecuador
66.0 km (41.0 mi) N of Rocafuerte, Ecuador
224.0 km (139.2 mi) W of Quito, Ecuador

USGS

Not sure duplicate showing a 5.8 right after.

Showing a 6.0
earthquake.usgs.gov...

And a 5.8.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

a reply to: crappiekat
:blush: (if there is an icon for that
Have you recently changed your avatar? the cat looks more "dangerous" than it used to be. LOL
Glad my stuff is of interest.

a reply to: BlueAjah
That is an interesting list, Vanuatu is a very young set of islands, I believe the youngest rock on the planet can be found there (discounting actual live volcano's themselves).
It is such an active place for earthquakes one could do a complete study on Vanuatu that would take years to compile, and probably never complete in a lifetime due to new stuff happening all the time.
What really makes me wonder is, what was it like back in 1800's and earlier?, we have no records, except maybe folk law from the indigenous people who live/d there, and second hand tsunami reports from places like Japan and Fiji.
Most of the pre-1850's data is focused on Europe and Asia.
I did a small starter Vanuatu page back in Aug 2011.
45to47south.wordpress.com...
Unfortunately the maps are now redundant due to Google Maps change of business policy, but these were only a few of the series I had a look at over a short 10 year data period.
Note the energy released, those figures are kilotons, a kiloton is 1000x 1Ton of TNT that I usually use for Japan and NZ (TTNT).
When I get a chance I should change those maps to Bing Maps, I'm still getting av. 15 readers visits per day, even though most of the maps are dead.
Vanuatu is one of the volcanic places on my Bucket List to visit one day.

Central America in danger of large quake. I just had this feeling a few seconds ago

With in these countries


Belize
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Nicaragua
Panama

a reply to: muzzy

Thank you, that's very interesting! I'll have to do some more investigation regarding Vanuatu.
I learn so much from you learned people here

So i recently predicted a majour earthquacke on the bqlkans in the next 3 months...

I may have change that. Some other mediums and people showed up on tv and said it is likely to happen in a month.

So change is from 3 months to a month.

a reply to: BlueAjah
I have updated that Vanuatu page with new Bing Maps. They are interactive, the only difference from Google Maps is that you have to click on the screenshot image to open the interactive version in another tab, bit of a PITA but at least it works.

I want to thank you for asking the question about Vanuatu because it made me do the above, I had to re-process the data as I had previously messed up the times (hh:mm:ss) anyway, but when I put the old custom icons in the files THEY ACTUALLY SHOWED ON BING!. This is a major breakthrough for me as I have been unable to get my custom icons to show on Bing, usually they come up as numbers only.
I have no idea why they suddenly work, it may be something to do with the icon's address on Dropbox, as these old icons are in another Folder than the usual blank coloured icons. I'll need to do some digging to figure out what has happened.

While I was at it I added kiltons of energy released into each quakes popup tab.
Vanuatu series maps
This page is only the southern part of Vanuatu, and only for a 5 year period, and only over M5, most of the series only lasted a few days (maybe my parameters for time are a bit short, I only included series of more than 7 events, earthquakes more than 18 hours outside each end of sequence are not included in the data of each map/ list. Maybe based on the discussions we have had here on Quake Watch about "aftershocks" and "swarms" I should have made it longer than 18 hrs, i.e make it run until the next big quake), but in summary;
Vanuatu is always active, and there are some tremendous amounts of energy being released there.

Note: I haven't done the last two series yet as I didn't save the files, but while I am at ANSS I might as well bring the whole thing up to date and grab 2011-2016 as well. Keep looking in on that link for more series, it may take a while though.




I have added the Vanuatu page link to my signature for easier access

a reply to: ZeroFurrbone
I don't buy into earthquake predictions or medium dreams etc but the place is likely to be Vrancea deep in Romania.
Based on History.

Muzzy, is this tremor after the small local earthquake. The earthquake is small about 2 M ish. But look at the stuff after ward. It's from Nicaragua, Conception.



geofisica-ew1.ineter.gob.ni...

a reply to: ericblair4891
16/04/22 10:52:18local, 11.572N, 85.600W, 4.2km deep, 2.8ML
webserver2.ineter.gob.ni...

a reply to: muzzy

I posted more on Volcano about this earthquake. Yes, I've seen the other little ones for the area on the webicorder. I'm looking at what follows the earthquake. The 2.8M is very clear and short, but look at the long signal afterwards. I thought it could be background from Ecuador because they show up clearly. But this doesn't resemble the distance ones and is too long and isn't normal.

a reply to: ericblair4891
location is right under the volcano, but probably not tremor
if you look at Momotombo the lines are not the same thickness. Momo is erupting isn't it?

a reply to: muzzy

That's not a good webicorder. No, Mombotombo stopped. The best one to watch for Mombotombo is MOMN EHZ NU 50 : Volcan Momotombo SIXAOLA Periodo Corto. If you look on that one it's different all together. The earthquake was right under Conception. And if you look you'll see there is a signal. That's not normal for this webicorder. If it is tremor, it wouldn't be strong enough to show up on Mombotombo's. Mombotombo is having tremor but it is very small and short term. It comes and goes in bursts and is visible.

Oh, I should add for here that San Cristobal just erupted at the same time as that signal, but it's not the same as this which is San Critstobal erupting.



Oh, I made a picture. I'm not very good but I tried. On the following, you can see Ecuador from earlier, I marked it with a red number one. I make the fuzzy stuff that started right after the earthquake that is right under the volcano and is no other earthquake or cultural noise. It's not wind, or other. When checking past weeks charts you can't find anything similar.





click to make bigger

I caught a picture of the brand New eruption at San Cristobal. Breaking news.

a reply to: muzzy
Did those last two in 2011, had to go to IRIS for data as USGS no longer support PDE search in a format I can use.
ANSS were useless only had 2 quakes in August 2011

a reply to: muzzy

Yes, I did. I am feeling very funny lately.

I don't like people messing with me, but I enjoy the laugh.