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originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Profusion
That's why I would say that your experience means everything and nothing simultaneously.
Cool.
Now what?
[He] explains the pre-Internet parable of the “Baltimore Stockbroker.” This devious broker mails a paper newsletter to 10,240 recipients predicting that a certain stock will either rise or fall in the following week. He sends the newsletter for 10 consecutive weeks and is correct in his prediction every week. On the eleventh week, he asks recipients to invest money with him based on his shrewd prescience in selecting stocks to buy or short.
The odds of the Baltimore stockbroker being correct 10 weeks in a row are 1/1024 or 0.00098 (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2). How did he defy such long odds?
On week 1, he sent the newsletter to 10,240 recipients; half were told the stock would rise in the coming week and half were informed the opposite. In week 2, the newsletter went only to the 5,120 people who got the correct prediction the previous week. This winnowing process continued until, after the final newsletter, only 10 people were left who had received a correct prediction every time. Some of them undoubtedly thought the stockbroker was a seer and were likely to rush to “invest.”
I don't read posts from posters who tend to only write about their personal experiences.
originally posted by: Profusion
originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Profusion
That's why I would say that your experience means everything and nothing simultaneously.
Cool.
Now what?
I don't read posts from posters who tend to only write about their personal experiences. I wish I could elaborate on that but it's against the rules.