The World today : Ukraine - Syrian crisis explained

Great read, S&F from me.

A few places I'd probably question (specifically the emergence of Boko Huram) but by and large a nice snapshot of what was, what is and what's to come.

Interestingly, I was sitting at my table eating breakfast not moments before clicking your thread trying to re remember the timeline of events between Syria, Snowdan, Ukraine than back to Syria. A simingly tit for tat covert war already well underway.

One further point I didn't see addressed in your timeline was the NATO defense shield going up year after year and the subsequent warnings by Russia. I would love to see that angle addressed in the context of the information shared above, no doubt a powder keg moment for Russia's aggressive response.

Thanks for sharing. really great stuff.

originally posted by: Mastronaut
a reply to: Gogore

Very nice post, puts in perspective a bigger picture and connects many events. I don't agree on everything, but I appreciated the read. I only have a few things that I can't verify:
- Iran backing Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt
- Merkel and Junckers "officially" working with CIA
- gas and oil from North Africa was too expensive to sustain a normal “priced” economy

Something like this requires collaboration. Too many variables easily missed.

Rogers' Doctrine? Surely you are thinking of George Kennan's policy of containment, as articulated in the "Long Telegram."

Yes ! But the Roger's doctrine also exist in itself. Yes, it is a containment policy (and of course, all players had one). but only one so far worked really well !

Declassified documents have long since proven that Russia was never a world power.

Well,, they did almost put missiles 500km away from Cuba and their territory was quite huge.

In the meantime, China eclipsed Russia in terms of industrial development and intellectual productivity and began to project its power into the available open regions of the planet

yup, but with moderation ! China is planing on a very long term and thinking "community" : thus the land bought in Africa, massive emigration to that continent also. On the other hand, Russia is ran by a huge mafia that literally drains everything. The difference with Europe, is that corruption has been legalized.

On the other hand, Europe has a more highly developed industrial and "post-industrial" economy with more possibilities for entrepreneurship

Sorry, for doing business in those countries and in Europe, I can say that most eastern people have a completely biased view of this in Europe... And vice versa. I promise you that they see a wonderland and when they arrive, they realize that their previous life's quality was not so bad.
And as a European entrepreneur, I can't even begin to explain how hard it is (corruption, influence network, politics, regulations, ever-changing laws, not even going into taxes etc)
If in eastern countries taxes are low, you are constantly pick on by "authorities" to whom you have to pay unofficial taxes (example : "if you don't buy that fire extinguisher 10K USD, you will be sorry when your offices burn down" as in Europe, you are trashed by taxes and regulation.

And also note that it belonged to the Ottoman Empire, Turkey, before that. I think that's enough myth busting for now. Don't worry, I'll be back.

So true, I can give you the reference of a great book on the Crimea wars if you want (in french only, it was never translated).
yes, please do

a reply to: Rosinitiate

Thanks !
Well to be honest, i tried to tie up between my readings and stuff like that. Like some others point out, it is neither accurate or correct.

The NATO shield is really the US anti-missile shield systems. I'm not specialist but since the US have military bases going from the Balkan countries to Turkey (I think Kosovo has the biggest US base in Europe till this day). I remember it there was huge tantrum in Europe when Poland gave their green-light for the US to put an anti-missile system in their country.

At that time France was not back in NATO and EU had given money to Poland for getting themselves some military equipment... All arms Europeans arms-dealer were thrilled at this jackpot until Poland want and bought US weapons

originally posted by: Gogore
a reply to: skywatcher44

To be transparent (I'm french), our gvt are creating a huge time-bomb that will create massive chaos for Europe and middle east. This will end badly - very badly -. That is why I am more in favor in the current external politics of Russia (and allies).

I am, on the other hand, completely aware that none of them are angels of virtue or marshmallow fluffy teddy bears. But most of all, I don't think Ukrainians and Syrians deserve this in any way.

I'm not also "anti-American" and I'm not pissed at their external politics. As cruel as it may seem, they do what they need to do to remain the number 1 power of this modern world.
I'm just super pissed at my gvt whom I consider to be sold to foreign powers and committing crimes against humanity.

Thank you for opening this thread, Gogore. I could never put together an article such as you did but during the reading of it I knew I had been paying enough attention to world events in recent years to understand it and be reminded of things I'd forgotten.

I agree with you about Russia, and I will repeat my conclusion that the U.S. can no longer be the dominating world power. It's over. I agree with the concept of a multi-polar world which Russia is promoting. It's a better direction to go in from what I can see -- more cooperation and less destruction and bullying to maintain one's irreputable position at the top of the heap. Ideally. Yes, ideals are useful.

I am not anti-American either but I am anti-my-government's-policies-and-methods-of-operation. What's been coming out of Russia sounds vastly more sane than what's been coming out of the U.S.

My unsolicited two cents.
Peace.

a reply to: tweetie

Hi tweetie,

thanks but again, this is just my "impressions" on this situation.
The US still has many arguments to justify their lead : technological, political, financial, military.
They are today, in every term, an empire.
I don't think the situation today would be better if it would lead by Russians, Chinese or Indian etc etc.

If I agree that Russia's external politics makes more since (because it means saving a civilization from suicide), internally, it's really not great.

cheers


According to me, any political system staying in place for a certain time creates a cast of "elite", and that cast doesn't want power to go away. So inevitably, any system long enough in place becomes fascist (in a way).

originally posted by: Gogore
a reply to: tweetie



According to me, any political system staying in place for a certain time creates a cast of "elite", and that cast doesn't want power to go away. So inevitably, any system long enough in place becomes fascist (in a way).

That's a rather interesting perspective you have. How long has Putin been president again?

a reply to: Vector99

That's a rather interesting perspective you have. How long has Putin been president again?

That's a rhetorical question

a reply to: Gogore

The World today : Ukraine - Syrian crisis explained - thank you for that. Its as good an accurate contextual analysis as anything I have seen on the issue. You draw the linkages and connections between events in the last 5 years into a comprehensive and rational explanation

Thank you for enabling me to get a more accurate understanding

cheers

a reply to: Azureblue

Thanks ! Please note that this is just my interpretation of the events

originally posted by: Gogore

The Arab Springs

It is also know that the sit-ins were started by NGO sponsored by US and EU association in the name of democracy and freedom.

Owned by ... Soros, already mentioned twice in your OP.


Now if you want to read F. William Engdahl's point of view about Soros involvement in Syria, please have a look :
Soros Plays Both Ends in Syria Refugee Chaos

a reply to: Gogore

According to me, any political system staying in place for a certain time creates a cast of "elite", and that cast doesn't want power to go away. So inevitably, any system long enough in place becomes fascist (in a way).

That's why I would suggest direct democracy and open source for everything.

Now back to the meat of the topic... you didn't mention the Neonazi troopers, which could easily use some old Gladio (B) networks instead of NGO's only.
You stated Russia supported the Donbass with mercenaries, which is highly speculative at best. We know about many fighters, who joined due to the massive deathtoll on civilians in this area. Let's not forget, that Poroschenko called everyone, who remained there, a fricken terrorists. With this in mind it's kinda silly to suggest, the people would need a special invitation to join the fight. You think they don't have families or friends in Russia or elsewhere?

I think it would be way more effective to just support the Donbass with cash.

Besides from that you didn't add the religious layer of said conflicts. Did you know, that there are islamist terrorists on the payroll of this new shiny democracy in Kiev?

IN MIDST OF WAR, UKRAINE BECOMES GATEWAY FOR JIHAD

Ukraine Merges Nazis and Islamists

Interesting, innit? Who supported IS again, do we see the pattern yet?

a reply to: theultimatebelgianjoke

good read thanks ! It is true that many stories are running on Soros after, to know which one is true or not...

a reply to: PublicOpinion

You stated Russia supported the Donbass with mercenaries, which is highly speculative at best.

yes you are right ! However, the Donbass people, even if they mostly considered themselves russian where not trained military and didn't have the weapon to stand up to a regular army.
But to me, it is very likely that money, equipment and soldiers were sent there (including naval fleets). Since Russia could not officially say that they are sending in troops has it would be considered a huge breach in international law, it is highly probable that regular Russian soldiers were sent in as mercenaries paid by Russia.

the Ukrainian army met in the first days an armed opposition : and I'm not talking about a couple of dudes with AK47 but with tanks and ballistic weaponry ...

that there are islamist terrorists on the payroll of this new shiny democracy in Kiev

nope, I didn't. But I'm not surprises, between Poutine who wants to recreate the USSR influence circle, Erdogan who wants to rebuilt the ottoman empire and conquer Europe and the occidental world who also want world dominance (plus China silently lurking in the shadow of diplomacy)... Finally, since if they (Saudis and Qatar) can't put their hands on the Syrian territory for their pipelines, you can always go around to Ukraine.

a reply to: Gogore

While no one doubts the Russian presence is real, it is also undeniable that eastern Ukrainians are increasingly being drawn into the separatist ranks, if only because of the decent salaries being offered. “When I was there last, men with the Oplot Battalions were getting 8000 hyrivna per month,” Oliver Carroll, a Ukraine-based journalist said, referring to the separatist militia commanded by Zakharchenko. “That’s $500, which is a bloody good wage in these parts.”

www.thedailybeast.com...

the Ukrainian army met in the first days an armed opposition : and I'm not talking about a couple of dudes with AK47 but with tanks and ballistic weaponry ...

Armed with Borschtsch, eh?

Donbass People's Militia insurgents entered Sloviansk on 16 April, along with six armoured personnel carriers they claimed to have obtained from the 25th Airborne Brigade, which had surrendered in the city of Kramatorsk. Reports say members of the brigade were disarmed after the vehicles were blocked from passing by angry locals. In another incident, several hundred residents of the village of Pchyolkino, south of Sloviansk, surrounded another column of fourteen Ukrainian armoured vehicles. Following negotiations the troops were allowed to drive their vehicles away, but only after agreeing to surrender the magazines from their assault rifles. These incidents led President Turchynov to disband the 25th Airborne Brigade.

en.wikipedia.org...

Nope, the ATO didn't meet a military force capable of waging war. What are you talking about? Civilians talked some of those poor soldiers out of this BS, which actually led to the disband of the 25th after most of them deflected to the enemy.

Also there are huge stockpiles of weapons in the Ukraine, dating back to the Cold War. Later on they've got more sophisticated stuff and the whole structure changed. I would suggest a Russian meddling later in this conflict, but not right from the start. I think the Russians got caught by surprise. Yanu didn't use the military as he got ousted, I guess nobody expected Kiev to act this crazy.

Anyway, thanks for the reply! More good reads regarding the IS connection via Georgia:

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi Extends Someone Else’s Empire to the Caucasus


ISIL is Using Ukraine as a Forward Base into Caucasia and as for Entry into Europe

a reply to: PublicOpinion

Borschtsch,

With Pickles and vodka ! Frieda vodka Tavarich !

Yup ! Thanks for the links, definitely worth reading.

The crazies are holding the frontiers in Lybia, now you're telling me they're also in Ukraine, not counting Kosovo and Albania (but I guess for Kosovo, with the US and NATO bases, it would be quite an obvious sign of collusion if the crazies and official armies were sharing bunks.

I've also never heard of Gladio B, so I'll get to read a little bit of that.

a reply to: Gogore

Your welcome!

Regarding Gladio you should take a closer look here:
www.abovetopsecret.com...