Professional Bookies Predict Hillary as 2016 Winner

originally posted by: Eilasvaleleyn
a reply to: intrepid

On Hillary or Sanders?

The only way I see the former winning is through institutional corruption or super delegate abuse.

Yeah. The PTB owed her 8 years ago. Obama F'ed that up with new age electioneering. It's written in stone imo. Not calling for it. Don't like it. Just the way the onion peels.

ETA: You think Jeb's done?

originally posted by: Annee

originally posted by: cry93
I honestly believe that Trump's so called lead in this race is just media hype. I don't know anyone personally who takes him seriously, not even true blooded Republicans. He's a loudmouth blowhard who screams his might over others.

I tried to talk to my 45 year old daughter about Trump. She has zero interest in politics.

All I get are sound bites. He speaks his mind. He's not a slick career politician. He cares about America as it should be. Etc etc.

No concept of the complexity of the position of president of USA.

No offense to your daughter as I am sure that you raised her properly. With that said I believe people with her mentality are a truly rare breed and are not the norm. But yeah, it is scary that people out there actually buy into his BS.

Does she know that he is an cheating adulterous, thrice married, bankruptcy filing fraud? Whatever happened to those "American Values" that conservatives lauded themselves on? I personally don't think that it went away and Trump is being push onto that party for some unknown reason. I second that he won't even get the nomination.

a reply to: intrepid

If Clinton wins it's starting a civil war.

I think the referee could count to six hundred and Jeb wouldn't be getting back up. Not without some major false flag ops, at least, and even going with the PTB perspective, would the NWO really even want Jeb in power? They've already got their corporate whore lying spread-eagle in the form of one HRC. He's insurance, at best.

originally posted by: Annee

originally posted by: DogMeat
If she is the next POTUS, we are all Doomed and Dammed !

Why? She is the most qualified of all the contenders.

Qualified at what, exactly? All she's ever done is ride on the coat tails of others.

her education, lawyer status, political interests from her college years, when she switched from right to left, etc.

Ah, the 60's. How modern. How cutting edge.

She's been politics all her life. It's always been her main focus. She didn't just jump on the band wagon.

And this is a good thing because...

BTW, I did not say I'm voting for her. I said she's the most qualified. Which I believe she is from her history and work.

I expect all Dems and Libs who have lined up for Sanders to vote for Clinton because (D)

a reply to: Eilasvaleleyn

And Trump is the distraction.

originally posted by: saadad
a reply to: Aazadan

9% you say it is high chance to happen, let me explain. Out of 10 elections Hillary would lose only once. Out of 1000 elections she would lose only 100. Do you get the picture?

Hillary won!

Actually she would win 58 PERCENT OF THE TIME. Meaning out of 100 she would win 58 elections.but then throw in the 9 percent and here winning gogoes to 49 seeing as they are wrong 9 percent of the time. So her odds of winning are a coin toss.

Now as bookies go that means the other 51 PERCENT IS DIVIDED by people running against her she is the line.Now why use her simple she kas considered the front runner but I'll say this. I bet the line gets really skewed there are to many that wouldn't vote for Hillary under any circumstance. They are looking at odds through electorial college and last election not the viability of the candidate. When she has an oponent the attack adds start and well hear about emails and her involvement in the embasy deaths . If democrats were smart they would push bernie Sanders but I think the fix is in with democrats

originally posted by: saadad
a reply to: Aazadan

9% you say it is high chance to happen, let me explain. Out of 10 elections Hillary would lose only once. Out of 1000 elections she would lose only 100. Do you get the picture?

Hillary won!

You're misunderstanding. They are 91% certain that Hillary wins 58% of the time. In actuality there's a margin of error on that so really it's more like, they are 91% certain that Hillary wins between 55% and 61% of the time. Normalized to the accuracy (this is not a good way to do things, but good enough for this purpose) she's got a 52.78% chance to win.

Considering she's in a real fight for the Democrat nomination, that largely says that she beats all of the Republican candidates. If she had a 50% chance to win the nomination, and 50% to win the general if she gets that far, she would have a 25% chance to win the election.

originally posted by: dragonridrIf democrats were smart they would push bernie Sanders but I think the fix is in with democrats

The rank and file wants Bernie, the leadership wants Hillary. It's not all that different from the Republicans where the ordinary person wants Trump and the leaders want Bush.

And those numbers are set in stone and will not change at all as we go through election season?

They always change as we get close to the actual sporting event.

This is just what they calculate the odds to be now based on what they know. You bet now and those are your odds.

If you wait and Hillary falls over dead of a stroke in two months and you better believe the odds change and you lost your bet.

originally posted by: cry93

originally posted by: Annee

originally posted by: cry93
I honestly believe that Trump's so called lead in this race is just media hype. I don't know anyone personally who takes him seriously, not even true blooded Republicans. He's a loudmouth blowhard who screams his might over others.

I tried to talk to my 45 year old daughter about Trump. She has zero interest in politics.

All I get are sound bites. He speaks his mind. He's not a slick career politician. He cares about America as it should be. Etc etc.

No concept of the complexity of the position of president of USA.

Does she know that he is an cheating adulterous, thrice married, bankruptcy filing fraud? Whatever happened to those "American Values" that conservatives lauded themselves on? I personally don't think that it went away and Trump is being push onto that party for some unknown reason. I second that he won't even get the nomination.

Look, I don't care about his personal life. I'm sure my daughter doesn't either.

He did have an open door policy for his kids. They took priority over business meetings.

I told you she has no interest in politics. She belongs to the Green Party. She was just relaying what her age group and demographic were saying.

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: Chickensalad

This pretty much aligns with my suspicions as well. The only difference between me and the bookies is that I have the roles reversed for Cruz and Rubio. Cruz gets the nomination while Rubio comes in second.

Indeed politics is very good at defying logic. The only way GOP supporters get over their delusion of a right wing member of the GOP bringing out a missing voter base , is for Cruz to lose to Hillary. The GOP is the party that in the 2012 presidential that couldn't do any better than field Romney against Obama.

originally posted by: Eilasvaleleyn
a reply to: intrepid

On Hillary or Sanders?

The only way I see the former winning is through institutional corruption or super delegate abuse.

This is Hillary we're talking about. Why not both?

a reply to: xpert11

But even that may not be a permanent hope. They all identified the problems when Romney lost and vowed to change, but they are right back to those very same tactics with this election. Though I see some conservatives pitching a new angle of why they lost recently. Racial disparity. Obama cinched the minority vote because people voted for him because he was black, and for a good portion of voters that IS true. Except that Hillary is a woman. She is ALSO a minority. Just like Obama, and JUST like Obama, we've never had her demographic of minority in the White House. She is most DEFINITELY pitching the same angle that Obama pitched in regards to his race back in '08, too.

How Hillary Clinton is building an army of millennial women supporters

Because Hillary LEARNS from her mistakes. She doesn't come back up to bat with the same exact game plan each time expecting THIS time to be the one. That's why she's a real threat this year. She knows what she is doing. She identified her mistakes from last time, identified what allowed Obama to win, and she is adopting those strategies. Because that is what she does. That is what winners do. They learn from their mistakes. The Republicans will have to keep learning this the hard way until it sinks in. Though the way they demonize Hillary, I sure hope that losing to her is a significant wake up call to get back into the game and start adopting REAL political strategies and not crazy regressionist ones.

ETA: Oh and to piggy back on what I said earlier about her seeing her mistakes and then fixing them. While searching for the above source, I found an additional source that explains that this strategy isn't as effective on millennial women as it was on black voters. Apparently millennial women care about the issues or something (I know; crazy right?). So Hillary is changing her game plan AGAIN to focus on issues as well as her gender.

Moms and Daughters Debate Gender Factor in Hillary Clinton’s Bid

Unlike in her 2008 campaign, Mrs. Clinton has this year leaned heavily on her gender, often ending speeches by invoking an America “where a father can tell his daughter, ‘Yes, you can be anything you want to be, even president of the United States.’ ”

It is a powerful line for Mrs. Clinton’s most avid supporters: college-educated women in their 50s and 60s. “For baby boomer women, in particular, it’s ‘I fought this whole war, and now we’re running out of time, and if not Hillary, then who would it be?’ ” said Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who is herself a baby boomer.

But younger women are less impressed.

...

Indeed, Clinton campaign officials — who say younger voters are generally harder to engage than older voters — have tried to reach women ages 18 to 35 with Snapchat videos and personalized Bitmoji emoticons, but also with serious attention to issues that motivate them. Putting a woman in the Oval Office is presented as an added bonus.

“Millennial women are getting more and more involved in this campaign because they’re hearing about Hillary Clinton’s proven track record fighting for women and the issues she’s talking about that matter to them like equal pay, college affordability and protecting women’s health care rights,” said Mini Timmaraju, the campaign’s director of women’s outreach.

THAT'S how you win an election. NOT doubling down on the crazy. Bernie has a TOUGH fight ahead of him and I don't like his odds. Love or hate her tactics, but they are working.

I know I'll probably get called a Hillary supporter for saying all this too, but I'm NOT a Hillary supporter. I want Bernie to win, not Hillary (though I will vote for her over any Republican candidate but that would be more a protest vote against Republicans than a vote for Hillary).

originally posted by: Chickensalad
a reply to: Teddy916

Very true.

I'm curious as to their line of thought and reasoning behind these numbers.

Any bookies or pro gamblers on here that might be able to help us understand these numbers better

Here is the thing. People of ideological fervor often confuse what they want to be reality with reality itself.

All politics aside...The GOP is having it's worst Presidential Nomination contest in recent history.

That can be said via numbers, polls etc. without ever discussing politics..

Clinton crushes Trump in a General Election

Rubio has the best shot...

www.realclearpolitics.com...

But Rubio lagging in the nomination race..

www.realclearpolitics.com...

The party affiliation edge still goes to Dems...

www.gallup.com...