Guyana is a small nation with a shared border with Venezuela. They have had a border dispute for a century where Venezuela claims some of Guyana's
territory. Not much was done about it until a couple years ago oil was found
Venezuala Guyana border
dispute heats up
. Since then Venezuela has been putting pressure on Guyana at one time claiming its waters as part of its defense zone, moving
troops to the border, stopped oil shipments and withdrew its ambassador. And now
The Guyanese government has launched a probe into the landing of a Venezuelan military aircraft on an airstrip in the gold mining community of Kaikan
in the Essequibo region.
Guyana has deployed forces to its border but, the entire Gutyanese military is only 1,100 strong with small arms and no navy or air force to speak of.
Guyana wants it settled in court where they sure they will win which likely why Venezuela is trying to strong arm them instead. Guyana is a member
of CARICOM which has given it half hearted support but, those Caribbean States have no military forces to speak of either and Venezuela has been
buying them off with cheap oil. The Commonwealth has given its support to Guyana as well but offers no military guarantees.
The recent election in Venezuela is likely to weaken the ruling party. That could make them want to create an outside conflict to distract the
public. It could take that territory over night and Guyana could do nothing about it. With the US distracted with ISIS Venezuela could hope that the
US would look for a political settlement instead of a military one.
Guyana is considering joining the Rio Pact or the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance which has an attack on one is an attack on all
clause. The Rio Pact consists of - United States, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Bahamas, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador,
Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago and Uruguay. If it does join then clearly it would have plenty of protection.
However Guyana has long been a neutral state and remains under threat until it does join if it chooses to do so.
If Venezuela invaded it would likely face the US, Brazil and Colombia as its primary military opposition. The question would be, since Guyana is not
part of their alliance how much military force would each be willing to bring to the table. I would expect US Naval and Air power supporting
Brazilian and Colombian troops followed on by occupation forces from other South American states. Or maybe they would not do anything but sanctions.
Those are some of the scenario's Venezuela is looking at while they look at options. Of course if Guyana ops to join the Rio Pact all those options
go off the table.
It will be interesting to watch.