What if Turkey closed the Bosphorus strait?

originally posted by: PheonixReborn
a reply to: mash3d

Turkey imports 55 percent of its natural gas from Russia and 30 percent of its oil. I'll give you 3 guesses what Russia would do as a response.

And then both would be screwed. Turkey is already getting shafted by sanctions. The likely outcome would be the removal of sanctions.

originally posted by: bjarneorn

originally posted by: InnerPeace2012

And if you leave the bear no options, than consider what Putin said..."No body wins in a war involving nukes"

Well, I don't quite agree to that ... Russia is of course, pointing out that it's not a good option to corner Russia.

But, but no matter how I think this chess piece ... Russia will come out victorious, with a Nuke. No one else will, maybe Russia has thought the same thing ... don't know. But the NATO card, is just a Joker for Erdogan. Because The US, Russia and China ... these three will never go at each other ... no matter what happens. So, if Russia decides to use a Nuke ... it's "oobs", they win by default. Of course, it would mean an enormous economical blow to Russia as a result ... so, he's right ... no one really wins, yet ...

Any fool who wants nuclear war is a fool I can dismiss. If anyone thinks Turkey would not "hack" a US nuke stationed in Turkey to fire back they are crazy. Russia would be nuked back.

"What if..." Right. Interesting premise. How much of the Russian fleet be in the Black Sea? The Med would probably have a lot of activity in it..... from about everyone. Seems like WWE's Royal Rumble.

originally posted by: OccamsRazor04
Any fool who wants nuclear war is a fool I can dismiss. If anyone thinks Turkey would not "hack" a US nuke stationed in Turkey to fire back they are crazy. Russia would be nuked back.

If you think Nukes are not viable as a weapon, you are the fool ...

The only thing Turkey can do, is be a Turkey for dinner ... and Erdogan's NATO card, is like ISIS ... NATO is just the US, using Europe as a suicide squad.

It all depends on how "civil" the Russians decide to be.

originally posted by: schuyler
Violation if the long-standing Montreux Convention to which there are many signatories. That would be a HUGE thing for Turkey to do, and unlikely.

Explain how? The convention you cite restricts the passage of naval vessels that do not belong to black sea states. Russia is not a black sea state.

a reply to: intrepid

That's right, it won't happen.
Wars have been fought for alot less than this, if it would be executed as stated in the OP.
I hope reason will prevail, instead of blown up ego's in this conflict.

originally posted by: bjarneorn

originally posted by: InnerPeace2012

The only way a country can win a nuke war is to have the ability not only to defend from nuke attacks, but have amphibious nuclear attacking abilities using it's evasive subs.

NATO Attacking Russia in Ukraine, prompts Russia to counter in Syria. NATO wants gas and oil, Russia blocks any further gas and oil from the middle east. Makes sense, not a dumb move by the Russians.

But, Europe's actions through NATO ... or even with the US, smell of "desperation". To me, Russia appears to be doing "blockade" in Syria ... and US/Europe is playing Nazi Germany here ... taking control of resources, through intimidation and force. The amount of propaganda sprouting from western media, is enormous ... mind blowing.

Think about it, look at western media ... what do they say "We are doing God's work ... saving the world". Does it smell like old Soviet/Nazi posters, showing "self sacrifice"? Take a look at Russia, they lost a plane ... but are acting, like they lost a minor piece in a chess game.

No matter how you play this, we won't win Russia ... we'll lose. If Russia uses Nukes, we still lose. Trying, just oozes "desperation".

There's more here, than meets the eye ... I think.

Either way one thing to note is that, NATO war games near the baltics proved that NATO cannot protect from a Russian invasion.

U.S. repeatedly loses in Pentagon war games against Russia

originally posted by: bjarneorn

originally posted by: OccamsRazor04
Any fool who wants nuclear war is a fool I can dismiss. If anyone thinks Turkey would not "hack" a US nuke stationed in Turkey to fire back they are crazy. Russia would be nuked back.

If you think Nukes are not viable as a weapon, you are the fool ...

The only thing Turkey can do, is be a Turkey for dinner ... and Erdogan's NATO card, is like ISIS ... NATO is just the US, using Europe as a suicide squad.

It all depends on how "civil" the Russians decide to be.

If they closed it to Russia Putin has no choice to bend over and take it. It means to supply syria he now has a 14 day trip through the straight of gibraltar. Currently takes them 4 days though the bospherous. Could the navy open the straight no Russia doesn't have the means to pull that off. This would also invoke article 4 of the NATO agreement if they tried. So this is a non option for putin. The only option he would have left is either operate with the black sea fleet bottled up in the black sea. Or second option negotiate a settlement which I'm sure would involve lifting sanctions on Turkey from russia.

Ultimately not alot of choices for Putin even when the Soviet union had this problem their solution was a blockade which had little effect on turkey. In this situation Turkey has the upper hand if they choose to use it. I suspect the current back up of Russian ships is just a warning to Moscow and Turkey will eventually let them into the straight.

originally posted by: OccamsRazor04
Russia is not a black sea state.

Maybe you should look up your fact book.

originally posted by: bjarneorn

originally posted by: OccamsRazor04
Any fool who wants nuclear war is a fool I can dismiss. If anyone thinks Turkey would not "hack" a US nuke stationed in Turkey to fire back they are crazy. Russia would be nuked back.

If you think Nukes are not viable as a weapon, you are the fool ...

The only thing Turkey can do, is be a Turkey for dinner ... and Erdogan's NATO card, is like ISIS ... NATO is just the US, using Europe as a suicide squad.

It all depends on how "civil" the Russians decide to be.

No one said they are not viable as a weapon. They are not viable as a response. Turkey will nuke back. Turkey has nukes which I am sure will mysteriously be "hacked" from US control.

originally posted by: dragonridr
Ultimately not alone if choices for Putin even when the Soviet union had this problem their solution was a blockade which had little effect on turkey. In this situation Turkey has the upper hand if they choose to use it. I suspect the current back up of Russian ships is just a warning to Moscow and Turkey will eventually let them into the straight.

Russia doesn't have many options there, agreed ... but it's really tiresome to hear this NATO card being pulled up all the times. Because it's a "no-brainer" ... it's a joker in a poker game.

originally posted by: bjarneorn

originally posted by: dragonridr
Ultimately not alone if choices for Putin even when the Soviet union had this problem their solution was a blockade which had little effect on turkey. In this situation Turkey has the upper hand if they choose to use it. I suspect the current back up of Russian ships is just a warning to Moscow and Turkey will eventually let them into the straight.

Russia doesn't have many options there, agreed ... but it's really tiresome to hear this NATO card being pulled up all the times. Because it's a "no-brainer" ... it's a joker in a poker game.

More like turkeys ace in the hole. No matter what Turkey knows Russia can't directly attack them. This means he can act alot braver then his military would normally allow. For example I'm sure the us sixth fleet is moving closer to Turkey as we speak.

a reply to: bjarneorn

I think in terms of political weight, the entire incident was a no-brainer from the start...
I'm still curious on how this will unfold, seeing how either party doesn't want to loose face in this.
In the end, it's all just a theaterplay for the public, while the outcome is already decided.

originally posted by: Tyrion79
a reply to: bjarneorn

I think in terms of political weight, the entire incident was a no-brainer from the start...
I'm still curious on how this will unfold, seeing how either party doesn't want to loose face in this.
In the end, it's all just a theaterplay for the public, while the outcome is already decided.

Unless Putin is willing to go to war it's all just political posturing and Turkey ultimately holds the upper hand.

a reply to: dragonridr

Time will tell...

originally posted by: bjarneorn

originally posted by: OccamsRazor04
Russia is not a black sea state.

Maybe you should look up your fact book.

I was mistaken. I knew Turkey could close the Strait to Russia, I just had the reason wrong. It's a 1982 Amendment that allows Turkey to do so.

encyclopedia2.thefreedictionary.com...

originally posted by: OccamsRazor04
No one said they are not viable as a weapon. They are not viable as a response. Turkey will nuke back. Turkey has nukes which I am sure will mysteriously be "hacked" from US control.

You haven't thought this through properly ...

Nukes are viable in two ways ... to "deter" an attack, where the attacker has little to gain from the attack itself. The "gain" is less than the "loss".

Nukes are also viable as a weapon ... in an attack. When the stakes are high, and you decide to "annihilate" the enemy. And the perpatrator has enough weapons to complete his task, without depleting his ammunition.

As a response to Russia, by Turkey ... it's only viable, if you are a looney toon. Russia, China and the US have the ability to destroy the planet a few times over. After annihilating Turkey, Russia has about 7900 nukes left. Whatever Turkey decide to shoot back, Russia's defence shield will defend it ... whatever defence shield Turkey has, will not be enough to save it.

These are the options.

Against Russia, unless you are completely retarded ... the only option is "negotiations". Claiming "we can hack a few US nukes", is a sign of extremely low intellect. It's like NATO threatening Russia ... it's a "suicide squadron" ... and anyone using it as some sort of an option, is just stupid. Whatever game Russia and US are playing here, is about getting as much upper hand as possible ... at the negotiations table. Turkey, like Europe ... is just a stooge. And make no mistake, that both of these players are ready to "throw" their Turkey and Euro cards, if the stakes are that high.

a reply to: OccamsRazor04
The Bosphorus strait has been a strategic point throughout history, not just recently.
It controls the passage to the Black Sea and I don't have to explain the importance to anyone of this.

originally posted by: bjarneorn

You haven't thought this through properly ...

Nukes are viable in two ways ... to "deter" an attack, where the attacker has little to gain from the attack itself. The "gain" is less than the "loss".

That is being viable as a deterrence. It has nothing to do with what you said and is actually what I said. You just said your post was wrong and mine is right.

Nukes are also viable as a weapon ... in an attack. When the stakes are high, and you decide to "annihilate" the enemy. And the perpatrator has enough weapons to complete his task, without depleting his ammunition.

That is being viable as a weapon. It has nothing to do with what you said and is actually what I said. You just said your post was wrong and mine is right, again.

As a response to Russia, by Turkey ... it's only viable, if you are a looney toon. Russia, China and the US have the ability to destroy the planet a few times over. After annihilating Turkey, Russia has about 7900 nukes left. Whatever Turkey decide to shoot back, Russia's defence shield will defend it ... whatever defence shield Turkey has, will not be enough to save it.

These are the options.

You just once again said your post was wrong and mine was right. It's not a viable response and you just admitted as such. Your magical defense shield argument where Russia is perfect and will block everything and Russia is perfect and will break through every other shield is a sign of a weak argument. Russia would be nuked. Moscow is very close to Turkey. It would be a glass parking lot.

originally posted by: OccamsRazor04
You just once again said your post was wrong and mine was right. I

We disagree on technicality ... so, in a way ... yes.

I was mistaken. I knew Turkey could close the Strait to Russia, I just had the reason wrong. It's a 1982 Amendment that allows Turkey to do so.

Well, then they should use this option.