What if Turkey closed the Bosphorus strait?

A bit of back ground for those that may no know.
The whole reason Russian made a stink and sized Crimea was that fact that it's Russia only warm water port.
Russia's black sea fleet was stationed there. I'm not sure how big of part it plays in trade and oil transfer but it's a piece of real estate Russia did not want to lose access to.
Problem is to get from the Black sea to the Mediterranean Russian ships still have to sail through the Bosphorus strait and the Dardanelles strait.
Both of which are surrounded and controlled by Turkey.
Technically by several legal agreements Turkey cannot just close the straits to Russian shipping.
They can legally stop Russian Naval vessels, and any other nations warships that is does not have land touching the Black sea.

Erodgen has threatened to close the straits before but what do you think would happen if they did it for real?

a reply to: mash3d

Turkey imports 55 percent of its natural gas from Russia and 30 percent of its oil. I'll give you 3 guesses what Russia would do as a response.

originally posted by: mash3d
Erodgen has threatened to close the straits before but what do you think would happen if they did it for real?

That would mean war really. You can just do so much to corner the bear until it will have no other options but to defend for it's own survival.

Like myself and others have said many a times, Erdogan is playing a dirty game. Shooting down the Russian plane only told Russia to draw the line on who are the real threat.

And if you leave the bear no options, than consider what Putin said..."No body wins in a war involving nukes"

Peace

originally posted by: InnerPeace2012

And if you leave the bear no options, than consider what Putin said..."No body wins in a war involving nukes"

Well, I don't quite agree to that ... Russia is of course, pointing out that it's not a good option to corner Russia.

But, but no matter how I think this chess piece ... Russia will come out victorious, with a Nuke. No one else will, maybe Russia has thought the same thing ... don't know. But the NATO card, is just a Joker for Erdogan. Because The US, Russia and China ... these three will never go at each other ... no matter what happens. So, if Russia decides to use a Nuke ... it's "oobs", they win by default. Of course, it would mean an enormous economical blow to Russia as a result ... so, he's right ... no one really wins, yet ...

Violation if the long-standing Montreux Convention to which there are many signatories. That would be a HUGE thing for Turkey to do, and unlikely.

originally posted by: mash3d
A bit of back ground for those that may no know.
The whole reason Russian made a stink and sized Crimea was that fact that it's Russia only warm water port.
Russia's black sea fleet was stationed there. I'm not sure how big of part it plays in trade and oil transfer but it's a piece of real estate Russia did not want to lose access to.
Problem is to get from the Black sea to the Mediterranean Russian ships still have to sail through the Bosphorus strait and the Dardanelles strait.
Both of which are surrounded and controlled by Turkey.
Technically by several legal agreements Turkey cannot just close the straits to Russian shipping.
They can legally stop Russian Naval vessels, and any other nations warships that is does not have land touching the Black sea.

Erodgen has threatened to close the straits before but what do you think would happen if they did it for real?

They can restrict shipping from anyone they deem to be a hostile country and may have all ready closed the straight to Russia if you believe this. Though the source is questionable.
www.infowars.com...://www.infowars.com/turkey-blockades-russian-shipping -black-sea-fleet-completely-cut-off/

a reply to: mash3d

What if Turkey closed the Bosphorus strait?

Won't happen, because that would indicate imminent war immediately.
Erdogan might be brave, but not that brave...

originally posted by: bjarneorn

originally posted by: InnerPeace2012

And if you leave the bear no options, than consider what Putin said..."No body wins in a war involving nukes"

Well, I don't quite agree to that ... Russia is of course, pointing out that it's not a good option to corner Russia.

I agree, but either way going to the level of really crippling Russia economically will only be interpreted by the Russians as an "act of war".

The only way a country can win a nuke war is to have the ability not only to defend from nuke attacks, but have amphibious nuclear attacking abilities using it's evasive subs.

It's hard to tell considering NATO is a far bigger threat to Russia on it's own, unless neutral countries ally with Russia.

In any case honestly, i don't want survive the after meth of a nuclear war, who would wanna?

a reply to: mash3d

There would be no war....Russia would just nuke it open...

I didn't know Turkey got so much Oil and gas from Russia. WWII Japan was heavily dependent on foreign oil which is one of the reasons Japan went to war after America cut them off. So dumber things have happened before.
Popping off a nuke doesn't give Russia control of the straits though. In order to do that they would have to seize the area around the straits with ground forces. That would get real messy very quickly.
The real question is how badly would losing access to the Mediterranean affect Russia and is it enough to go to war over?
They seem to think Crimea was enough to start a stink over. I think that's why Russia used the stealth invasion of "Little green men". That way the invasion was already done before any one in NATO could stop playing golf long enough to notice.
I'm not sure what options Russia would have. The only two I can think of are putting pressure on NATO to shorten Erogdens leash and get him to open it back up. The other is to force the strait with a Russian warship and get Turkey to attack it.
That would throw Article V of NATO out the window since I doubt any one would stand up for Erodgen.

a reply to: InnerPeace2012
Nukes are only used in defense.
What I mean is, as long as a country is nuclear armed, it acts as a barrier for larger escalations in a conflict.
None would mindlessely use any nuclear weapons currently, because of the implications.
So fortunately, since WW2, nobody has used them since in a conflict, as far as I know of.

originally posted by: Tyrion79
a reply to: InnerPeace2012
Nukes are only used in defense.

What I mean is, as long as a country is nuclear armed, it acts as a barrier for larger escalations in a conflict.

None would mindlessely use any nuclear weapons currently, because of the implications.
So fortunately, since WW2, nobody has used them since in a conflict, as far as I know of.

Well, lets see it this way then, how far can both countries go until the declare war on each other. Russians have said to destroy any threats to it's operation in Syria, while Erdogan has said to reply in the same manner it did to Russia for any more intrusions to it's airspace.

It's a ticking time bomb to say the least.

originally posted by: InnerPeace2012

The only way a country can win a nuke war is to have the ability not only to defend from nuke attacks, but have amphibious nuclear attacking abilities using it's evasive subs.

Well, the three major powers ... Russia, China and US are equivalent. If these three go at each other, or any of these ... it's the end. It's the end, for everyone.

It means, we can exclude the possibility that these three will fight. It's a no-brainer.

It's hard to tell considering NATO is a far bigger threat to Russia on it's own, unless neutral countries ally with Russia.

NATO is more of a threat to itself, than Russia ... of course, currently we have the "oil and gas" crisis, of Ukraine. Which we all know, is actually NATO "stretching" out towards Russia, to grab some of the resources available.

NATO Attacking Russia in Ukraine, prompts Russia to counter in Syria. NATO wants gas and oil, Russia blocks any further gas and oil from the middle east. Makes sense, not a dumb move by the Russians.

But, Europe's actions through NATO ... or even with the US, smell of "desperation". To me, Russia appears to be doing "blockade" in Syria ... and US/Europe is playing Nazi Germany here ... taking control of resources, through intimidation and force. The amount of propaganda sprouting from western media, is enormous ... mind blowing.

Think about it, look at western media ... what do they say "We are doing God's work ... saving the world". Does it smell like old Soviet/Nazi posters, showing "self sacrifice"? Take a look at Russia, they lost a plane ... but are acting, like they lost a minor piece in a chess game.

No matter how you play this, we won't win Russia ... we'll lose. If Russia uses Nukes, we still lose. Trying, just oozes "desperation".

There's more here, than meets the eye ... I think.

a reply to: InnerPeace2012

I agree, that the situation is getting more tense.
Turkey is only as strong as it's backed up by NATO at the moment.
Not that I underestimate Turkey's capabilities, however against Russia, I'm not sure if Turkey would be a match military wise.
I'm not implying anything here and I would like to see any further escalation to cease, because nobody profits from yet another war, except those who provide the means.

a reply to: mash3d

The Black Sea or another Fleet from the other side would reopen it with a whole lot of weaponry lol. Turkey does not have a snow balls chance in hell winning a war with Russia, even if it never went nuclear. Russia out numbers them in every category. Especially the Naval assets, as in Destroyers, large missile Cruisers and almost 90 corvettes with big ole cruise missiles.

NATO would not help Turkey out, not after starting the hostilities with Russia. If Turkey pulls one more stunt like that all bets are off, Turkey is gonna get a beating. Israel might just help Russia for the hell of it lol. They would rather deal with a level headed Putin than a nut case Islamic like Edorgan.

Russia will kick Turkey's ass. It's that simple.

Turkey is taking the p1ss AND Putin can only take so much of that until he breaks. Publicly having a laugh at Putin is treading on dangerous ground in my opinion.

No matter what hides behind the scenes Putin will and can win any tit for tat spaz that Turkey decides to pull.

Not a very clever game really.

a reply to: CaptainBeno
I think you have to look beyond military capabilities in this conflict.
This is not a game and certainly not one that I would like to see the outcome of otherwise.

Actually in a nuclear war Russia and China would be victorious. They have spent the last 50 years building underground bunkers for their citizens. We have nothing like that here in the west, we only have bunkers for the leaders and rich.

a reply to: WP4YT

If so, the same would apply to Russia and China.
Or do you think they have bunkers for a few billion people there?
How long do you think mankind could survive after a nuclear holocaust?
This isn't an episode of the game Fallout, you know...

originally posted by: WP4YT
Actually in a nuclear war Russia and China would be victorious. They have spent the last 50 years building underground bunkers for their citizens. We have nothing like that here in the west, we only have bunkers for the leaders and rich.

Well, in a war between Russia and the United States ... Europe would be annihilated including the middle east and north Africa, and both US and Russia would be left devestated if not entirely done for. Russia's enormous territory, would ensure at least portions of it would survive.

So, yes ... China would come out victorious. US and Europe would be the big losers ...

NATO, is Europe's "suicide" bomber squad.