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From WMO News link
"This shows us that the ozone hole problem is still with us and we need to remain vigilant. But there is no reason for undue alarm,” said Geir Braathen, a senior scientist in WMO’s Atmospheric and Environment Research Division.
Image taken from WMO Antarctic Ozone Bulletin
The stratospheric ozone layer, which is found at about 25 kilometers altitude, protects us from the harmful rays of the sun. Ozone depletion – which occurs annually during the southern hemisphere spring - is caused by extreme cold temperatures in the stratosphere and the presence of ozone-eating gases in the atmosphere such as chlorine and bromine.
originally posted by: odinsway
Must be all those florocarbons....oh wait...those were banned....damn....guess it is just a natural phenomenon then.
Scientists expected the Montreal Protocol to be working in the middle and upper stratosphere and it is," said co-author Mike Newchurch of the University of Alabama in Huntsville. "The real surprise of our research was the degree of ozone recovery we found at lower altitudes, below the middle stratosphere. There, ozone is improving faster than we expected, and appears to be due to changes in atmospheric wind patterns, the causes of which are not yet well understood. Until the cause of the recent ozone increase in the lowermost stratosphere is better understood, making high-accuracy predictions of how the entire ozone layer will behave in the future will remain an elusive goal. Continued careful observation and modeling are required to understand how the ozone recovery process will evolve."
Table 2. Global Radiative Forcing, CO2-equivalent mixing ratio, and the AGGI 1979-2013
Global Radiative Forcing (W m-2) CO2-eq
(ppm) AGGI
Year CO2 CH4 N2O CFC12 CFC11 15-minor Total Total 1990 = 1 % change *
1979 1.027 0.406 0.104 0.092 0.039 0.031 1.699 382 0.785
1980 1.058 0.413 0.104 0.097 0.042 0.034 1.747 385 0.807 2.2
1981 1.077 0.420 0.107 0.102 0.044 0.036 1.786 388 0.825 1.8
1982 1.089 0.426 0.111 0.107 0.046 0.038 1.818 390 0.840 1.5
1983 1.115 0.429 0.113 0.113 0.048 0.041 1.859 394 0.859 1.9
1984 1.140 0.432 0.116 0.118 0.050 0.044 1.900 396 0.877 1.9
1985 1.162 0.438 0.118 0.123 0.053 0.047 1.940 400 0.896 1.9
1986 1.184 0.442 0.122 0.129 0.056 0.049 1.982 403 0.916 1.9
1987 1.211 0.447 0.120 0.136 0.059 0.053 2.026 406 0.936 2.0
1988 1.250 0.451 0.122 0.143 0.062 0.057 2.086 411 0.963 2.8
1989 1.274 0.455 0.126 0.149 0.064 0.061 2.130 414 0.984 2.1
1990 1.293 0.459 0.129 0.154 0.065 0.065 2.165 417 1.000 1.6
1991 1.313 0.463 0.131 0.158 0.067 0.069 2.200 419 1.016 1.6
1992 1.324 0.467 0.133 0.162 0.067 0.072 2.225 421 1.027 1.1
1993 1.334 0.467 0.134 0.164 0.068 0.074 2.240 423 1.035 0.7
1994 1.356 0.470 0.135 0.165 0.068 0.076 2.270 425 1.048 1.4
1995 1.383 0.472 0.137 0.168 0.067 0.077 2.304 428 1.064 1.6
1996 1.410 0.473 0.139 0.170 0.067 0.078 2.336 430 1.079 1.5
1997 1.426 0.474 0.142 0.171 0.067 0.079 2.359 432 1.090 1.0
1998 1.465 0.478 0.145 0.172 0.067 0.080 2.406 436 1.111 2.2
1999 1.495 0.481 0.148 0.173 0.066 0.082 2.444 439 1.129 1.8
2000 1.513 0.481 0.151 0.173 0.066 0.083 2.468 441 1.140 1.1
2001 1.535 0.481 0.153 0.174 0.065 0.085 2.493 443 1.151 1.2
2002 1.564 0.481 0.155 0.174 0.065 0.087 2.526 446 1.167 1.5
2003 1.601 0.483 0.157 0.174 0.064 0.088 2.567 449 1.186 1.9
2004 1.627 0.483 0.159 0.174 0.063 0.090 2.596 452 1.199 1.3
2005 1.655 0.482 0.162 0.173 0.063 0.092 2.627 454 1.213 1.4
2006 1.685 0.482 0.165 0.173 0.062 0.095 2.662 457 1.229 1.6
2007 1.710 0.484 0.167 0.172 0.062 0.097 2.692 460 1.244 1.4
2008 1.739 0.487 0.170 0.171 0.061 0.100 2.728 463 1.260 1.7
2009 1.760 0.489 0.172 0.171 0.061 0.103 2.755 465 1.272 1.2
2010 1.791 0.491 0.175 0.170 0.060 0.106 2.793 469 1.290 1.7
2011 1.818 0.492 0.178 0.169 0.060 0.109 2.825 471 1.305 1.5
2012 1.845 0.494 0.181 0.168 0.059 0.111 2.858 474 1.320 1.5
2013 1.882 0.496 0.183 0.167 0.059 0.114 2.901 478 1.340 2.0
2014 1.909 0.500 0.187 0.166 0.058 0.116 2.936 481 1.356 1.6
* annual change (in %) is calculated relative to 1990
"Ozone holes with smaller areas and a larger total amount of ozone are not necessarily evidence of recovery attributable to the expected chlorine decline," Susan Strahan of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center explained in a media briefing. "That assumption is like trying to understand what's wrong with your car's engine without lifting the hood."
Instead, the scientists believe the most recent ozone hole changes, including both the largest hole ever, in 2006, and one of the smallest holes, in 2012, are primarily due to weather. Strong winds have the ability to move ozone in large quantities, effectively blocking the hole some years, while failing to block it in others.
“At the moment, it is winds and temperatures that are really controlling how big [the ozone hole] is,” Strahan told the BBC.