Who Were the Front-Runners in Iowa During the 2008 and 2012 Elections?

Since Donald Trump is leading in the polls, I thought I'd take a look at the front-runners for the 2 previous elections in August of the year before the elections.

In August of 2007, Rudy Giuliani was practically a shoe-in, as the front-runner for the 2008 election with 30%. Of course, as the election season wore on, John McCain (who placed third) became the eventual nominee.

From 2007:

Rudy Giuliani has led the field of Republican candidates for the 2008 presidential nomination in every Gallup Poll since January. In the most recent nationwide poll of Republicans, 30% name Giuliani as their first choice for the party's nomination, giving him an eight-point lead over second place Fred Thompson who registers 22% support. John McCain is in third place at 18%.
...
These insights are drawn from an aggregation of 1,690 interviews with Republicans and Republican-leaning independents taken from four Gallup surveys conducted in August and September.

Source

Of course, Hillary was the front-runner for the Democrats and we all know how that went...

And in 2011? Michelle Bachmann won the Iowa Straw Poll. Source

Michele Bachmann won the Iowa straw poll here Saturday, edging out Rep. Ron Paul and handily defeating Tim Pawlenty, whose third place finish could mark the beginning of the end of his campaign.
...
Rick Perry, who formally entered the race today, got 718 votes, good enough for sixth. Despite being a write-in candidate, he beat out Mitt Romney.

Here's how they placed in the 2011 Iowa Poll:

1. Michele Bachmann 28.65%
2. Ron Paul
3. Tim Pawlenty
4. Rick Santorum
5. Herman Cain
6. Rick Perry
7. Mitt Romney 3.37%
8. Newt Gingrich
9. Jon Huntsman

Source

Since it's so early, I highly doubt that Trump will hold onto his lead any more than Giuliani or Bachmann did.

a reply to: Benevolent Heretic

I honestly believe Trump is looking for a pay-off to drop out of the race.

He can pull enough votes as an independent (as he has threatened to run) to doom the eventual GOP Nominee, eroding that critical 3-5% in the middle.

But he can not pull enough votes to win..

And he knows this.

I think he has his hand out and will stay in the race, as an independent if necessary, until some outstanding real-estate deal in Florida goes his way.

I don't know who the front runners were, but if it was Trump in those years he would have been president. Much like this year.



Im not sure why it makes people so angry that so many people support him.

I keep telling my friends that this is all just the "soap opera" stage. Everything political right now is just meant for network ratings. And the "actors" involved are all looking to cash in from fundraising, selling books, and auditioning for key positions once the real campaigning begins.

a reply to: Benevolent Heretic

This is a non-issue.

Remember the primaries and the 2012 conventions? Regardless of what rank and file party members want, the establishment will choose their puppet. How much more blatant does it need to be?

Whatever goes on now is certainly an indicator of what is going on in the general electorate. Bernie and The Donald are outsiders and people tune in to that. They do not trust politicians as well they shouldn't.

Unfortunately once the conventions are over, that same electorate is left at the curb.

a reply to: Benevolent Heretic

Since it's so early, I highly doubt that Trump will hold onto his lead any more than Giuliani or Bachmann did.

Why dash the hopes of those that have a new cultural hero to express their angst and political distress.

This political theater is going to leave a lot of people very disappointed. That could be the ultimate plan.

Trumps will never make rnc nominee he will however run as independent anyway. I like to think of him as the republican version of Ralph Nader, hell get a bit of the repub base and throw of the vote for the rnc nominee.

originally posted by: ABNARTY
a reply to: Benevolent Heretic

This is a non-issue.

Remember the primaries and the 2012 conventions? Regardless of what rank and file party members want, the establishment will choose their puppet. How much more blatant does it need to be?

Whatever goes on now is certainly an indicator of what is going on in the general electorate. Bernie and The Donald are outsiders and people tune in to that. They do not trust politicians as well they shouldn't.

Unfortunately once the conventions are over, that same electorate is left at the curb.

National elections are a joke. Every president after Kennedy, save perhaps Carter has had very definite CIA ties before becoming president. They choose. We do not. Thats just how it is.

originally posted by: Indigo5
I think he has his hand out and will stay in the race, as an independent if necessary, until some outstanding real-estate deal in Florida goes his way.

I never thought of this conspiracy angle, though I've asked myself many times what's in it for him other than power and prestige! It's definitely a possibility.

originally posted by: YeahYea4
I don't know who the front runners were,

Well, if you had READ the OP, you would know. LOL! Rudy Giuliani and Michelle Bachmann!

Im not sure why it makes people so angry that so many people support him.

Oh, honey, no one's angry. In fact, I would LOVE for him to become the nominee. I'm even VERY curious to see what he would do (and more importantly HOW he would do it) if he became the next pres. Build a wall, Bomb, bomb, bomb .. bomb bomb Iran..., straighten China up, kill a bunch of innocent people, put US ground troops in Iran, you know... Make America Great Again!

Yeah, I'm not angry, I'm entertained.

originally posted by: ABNARTY
Remember the primaries and the 2012 conventions? Regardless of what rank and file party members want, the establishment will choose their puppet.

You may be right. It might end up being Hillary and Jeb after all. That's kind of the point of my thread. I'm not ready to give up completely on the idea of the people electing the president, and you can think I'm naive because of that, but I still have hope. It's just part of my character.

originally posted by: olaru12
Why dash the hopes of those that have a new cultural hero to express their angst and political distress.

Well, I'm certainly not dashing anyone's hopes - just wanting to bring some perspective.

I absolutely understand Trump's position as "cultural hero". I think a LOT of people were so upset that Obama got elected once, let alone twice! And the anger and resentment they feel is mirrored by the personality that is "The Donald".

It's interesting that he has the support of even evangelicals and staunch TP conservatives, even though he doesn't even talk about religion at all and some of his positions are downright moderate! I think it's the cult of personality. This is a really good write-up on why people support him, even though he doesn't share their positions...

Donald Trump's Paradoxical Cult of Personality

For example, one of my readers responded to my article criticizing the new EPA rules on power plants by touting Trump as the only candidate with “the balls” to dismantle the EPA. In reality, there is no basis in Trump’s background, his ideology (if he had one), or his public statements to think he would do anything in particular with the EPA. But that’s how Trump is regarded: as a cure for what ails you, as an all-purpose tonic for whatever somebody thinks is wrong with our current system.

People are projecting onto Trump what they want to see. They are pouring into him their fantasies about what could be accomplished by a strong leader who doesn’t care about making people angry. But that’s a dangerous fantasy to indulge.

originally posted by: YeahYea4
I don't know who the front runners were, but if it was Trump in those years he would have been president. Much like this year.



Im not sure why it makes people so angry that so many people support him.

Because he scares them. His stance on immigration scares illegal immigrants and those who profit from their labor. (Which okay, I'm not actually going to argue with).

Everyone thinks that he is going to Save The Economy but if there is a poster child for capitalist cronyism Trump is it. He'll look out for himself and a few of his boys and the rest of us can suck it.

His stance on women is disgusting and if he is the one determining legal policy (and effecting social policy) in this regard than I am terrified frankly.

He has no self possession and little discretion in thought, word or deed which is necessary for foreign diplomacy, and I suspect that he has an significant impulse control problem. These are not the qualities of a thoughtful world leader and certainly not the qualities anyone wants in a world leader as militarily and economically powerful as the United States. These are the qualities of an ego-maniac and a bully, with pronounced narcissistic tendencies and I think it is probable that he is a sociopath.

If he becomes president (which I highly doubt he will). I'm giving up. I will pack up my family and leave the country.

originally posted by: redhorse
Because he scares them.

I'm not scared. I have no reason to be scared. I'm not young, not entering college, not of child-bearing age (don't need access to birth control or abortion), not military age and I'm not gay. I'm a white citizen, our house is paid off, we're out of debt and we're fairly financially secure. There's not a whole lot that his presidency could do to me.

I agree with you on everything else you said, and I may join you in leaving the country, simply because I wouldn't want to live in a country where the people who WOULD be subject to his policies are treated the way he would treat them.

originally posted by: Benevolent Heretic

originally posted by: Indigo5
I think he has his hand out and will stay in the race, as an independent if necessary, until some outstanding real-estate deal in Florida goes his way.

I never thought of this conspiracy angle, though I've asked myself many times what's in it for him other than power and prestige! It's definitely a possibility.

Yes...from a conspiracy angle...Jeb Bush has spent his sabbatical from politics in the Developer Real Estate industry in FL...even still has his real estate license and is backed by local real estate moguls in FL....and Trump has been moving into Miami and other Florida developments. I strongly suspect if you watch closely you will see a FL Real-Estate deal that favors Trump follow closely to him dropping out of the race.

The Florida Ties Behind Jeb Bush’s Rise
The co-chairman of George H.W. Bush’s campaign in South Florida, a Cuban-American real-estate developer named Armando Codina..

...

Bush that year accepted Mr. Codina’s offer to be a partner in real estate and moved his family to town.

...

Mr. Bush and allies like Mr. Codina rode the real-estate market and helped build a powerful state GOP, making Florida a presidential battleground.

...

Mr. Codina said he gave Mr. Bush a 40% stake in a new company, Bush Realty, although Mr. Bush had no real-estate experience. On the campaign trail, Mr. Bush regularly talks about his success with Mr. Codina, saying he has “signed the front side of a paycheck” unlike many in Washington.

...

“Jeb started a real estate business that through hard work he grew from 3 people to the largest commercial real estate company in South Florida,” said a spokesman for Mr. Bush.

www.wsj.com...

OK...so we see Jeb owning the "Largest Commercial Real Estate company in FL"

Trump has been expanding his properties and development in Florida, more so with the opening up of Cuba, which should bring an economic boom to South Florida.

As crazy as it sounds...I think this is a Real Estate transaction..He knows he can't win, but he can torpedo Jeb...Jeb is a Florida Real Estate mogul in his off-hours...and Trump has been moving into Miami to capitalize on the Cuba situation.

a reply to: Indigo5

Interesting....

And with Jebs connection to big oil besides real estate.....this very well could be about Cuba, oil drilling, real estate development and the political angle is just a by product.

Trump simply won't get the GOP nomination, Jeb will....

If Trump decides on a 3rd part bid....I think we all know what will happen! 3rd party attempts are losers.

originally posted by: olaru12
a reply to: Indigo5


Trump simply won't get the GOP nomination, Jeb will....

If Trump decides on a 3rd part bid....I think we all know what will happen! 3rd party attempts are losers.

Yes and a similar business candidate, Ross Perot, ran as an independent against Jeb's dad. And while Ross Perot lost...so did Jeb's dad...and Bill Clinton became President.

In many circles the GOP blame Ross Perot for garnering enough of the vote to torpedo Bush Senior's re-election plans.

This is what Trump is threatening and why he was the only one at the GOP debates to raise his hand and say he would consider a 3rd party run if certain people in the GOP "were not nice" to him.

I think he has his hand out for a pay-off from Bush and that it will take the form of a real-estate transaction in FL where Jeb's Real Estate Mogul posse and Trump are competing for property in and around Miami.

You're all pretty on point here I think. It is worth mentioning that the Republican-only straw poll is gone and only the official caucus remains in Iowa.

Here's the bird's eye view:
There are four proportionally divided primaries in Feb.

First the Iowa caucus. This is not quite a straight up popular vote, but rather a whittling down of potential caucus delegates by popular vote, which takes place in stages with breaks for politicking and deal making. You have to be able to write your candidates name on blank paper from memory instead of picking from a list, but name recognition isn't always enough in a caucus. An Obama with committed and organized followers will usually over perform and a money/recognition based candidate like Hillary there, especially if he's from a neighboring state.

Let's say there are two districts in Iowa, and 3 candidates. District 1 is Christie 60%, Trump 30%, and JEB 10%. The other is reversed, 10 Christie, 30 Trump, 60 JEB. That's 35% JEB, 35% Christie, 30% Trump right? Nope.
In district 1. Trumps supporters join the bigger bully for the big win over the dynasty professional politician. In district 2 Christie's voters go for trump for the same reason. Result: 45 Christie, 35 JEB, 20 Trump. And that's with fewer possible variables.

Trump will actually outperform Christie while still coming in 3rd or lower in Iowa, and that will be the first time anyone knows absolutely for sure who Trump is good and bad for, but if the governor of New Jersey doesn't make a deal with an Atlantic City casino owner to make sure he's got a monopoly on the east coast tough guy image before that, then he's not smart enough to be in the election anyway.

JEB benefits from Trump up until at least South Carolina. JEB can't be different from his brother and try to out guns guts and god the Republican field. He needs Trump and Christie splitting that with Perry and the like, and Carson splitting up the moderates, so that nobody has a commanding lead when the field starts to thin, and then JEB becomes a default contender just by not having gotten into any blood feuds and still having money.

Trump can do his best in Nevada though- a caucus but a strangely localized one because of Nevada's population distribution- at which point he is in past his welcome from many perspectives (maybe still helps JEB against Perry in Texas) gaining momentum, and threatening to shift the balance of winner take all primaries.

I think Trump makes a deal in late Feb to Early March, but I think JEB wants him in and the other blowhards want him out.

a reply to: Benevolent Heretic

I am with you. I hope too. I would love to see an election with multiple candidates and real debates.

...and for that matter, paper ballots which become public record.

a reply to: Indigo5

Agreed. I'm convinced that many who run do this actually. It's a great way to make a few million for a few speeches over a couple of months. I think Trumps taking it a step further though, rather than just looking to sell his support to someone, he's trying to blackmail the entire RNC... pay up or he'll siphon votes as an independent.